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产品爱好者周刊 第21期:你好,2022!

 

Products

Design

Business & Market data

  • 未来人口四倍于中国的非洲,我们该如何面对:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7V2IgW3db1uRR3_wa8S1OQ
    在数十年后,非洲也会是类似于印度、东南亚那样的机会

  • 周深在节目中唱歌:一般2首,120W+

  • 一个有些违反认知的事实是,1966年的上海综合工业实力媲美台湾、香港。

  • https://metrics.torproject.org/userstats-relay-country.html
    Tor的运营系列数据

  • 牢记:中国还是一个人均中位数年收入只有2.2万元、90%的三口之家年收入低于20万、20%的三口之家年收入低于1万8的发展中大国。

  • 全国人均GDP尚未达到1万美元(欧洲落后地区水平),最富裕的京沪人均GDP也刚摸到2万美元门槛(欧洲中等偏下水平)

  • 美国家庭收入中位数是42万人民币(税前),家庭税前年收入75万人民币可以打败3/4的美国家庭,120万可以打败90%,160万可以打败95%(2017-2018,基于2014美国普查数据预估,如下图)

  • 超低生育率养成记: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/C80z5B1jl2D3HO4PwYf2fg
    https://archive.ph/irgun
    新时代的《中国各社会阶层分析》

  • 生存空间零和竞赛,一线居民苦难行军:https://archive.ph/bL41C
    一个结论是:中国超大城市如京沪,后续的房价会冲向世界之巅,让很多优秀的年轻人从物理上消失(生育欲望低)

  • 韩国经过半个多世纪的努力,终于成为人均GDP 3万美元(中国沿海发达省市的2倍左右)的发达经济体

  • 以数千万级人口国家中发展最快的韩国而言,从人均8000多美元发展到如今的3万美元,花了25年。
    而我国的上海,从人均GDP 8000多美元提升到如今的1.85万美元,花了10年,离人均4万美元还差一倍多点。

  • 而如今,长珠三角转移劳动密集型产业的主要去处,也正是那些内部发展极不均衡的省市,其内部的极端贫困县市能为省会的工业园提供巨量“外劳”,这也是如今郑州、合肥、武汉、成都、重庆、贵阳等城市能大规模承接劳动密集型产业转移的基本条件

  • 非洲人口正在以超出大多数人想象的速度在增长,在我们有生之年里,非洲人口将从现在的12亿+暴增到30亿+,达到届时中国人口的4倍。(大概率会更快达到,不用等到2199年)

  • 除中国以外,非洲和东南亚是过去10年经济增速最快的地区。
    着实让人感到意外

  • 2050年非洲也会出现一些世界级的人口大国(塞冬预测):
    4-5亿人口的尼日利亚。
    2.5-3亿人口的埃塞俄比亚。
    2亿人口的埃及、民主刚果。
    1.5亿人口的坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚。
    1亿出头人口的乌干达、苏丹。

Ideas

  • 年轻人向上移动、财税向下移动,资源和人的不匹配,让年轻人集中的大城市婚育压力增加。 ————因为中国巨大的财政转移支付

  • 如果说金融和互联网是特大城市群众追捧的高收入行业,那么体制内编制就是相对落后地区群众对子女的最大期盼。

  • 人口随产业流动,公共服务和住宅用地随人口流动,随行就市,让资源更合理地分配,让流动中的年轻人获得更多生存空间和公共资源,才是王道。 ————塞冬

  • 中国的一线城市和香港类似,因为政府对土地供应的控制,导致极少的人均居住面积,从而造成和收入相比而言极高的住房单价,这让居住在其中的大部分普通人感到难以承受的住房压力,从而觉得价格泡沫严重。然而通过客观的计算我们发现,对于以北京为代表的中国一线城市和香港而言,人们用于购买一套平均水平住房的平均收入年限,只比美国最贵的区域略高。

Citizenship Consciousness

  • 美国人的普遍情绪是希望避免军事干预,但不是退出国际联盟或多边合作。

  • Regardless of Class无关阶层:https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1qb411F7N1
    讲述新加坡的教育分流制度,挺残酷的,在小朋友很小的时候,就划分了他们后来会接受何等教育

History

Words

  • 用刺刀培植的政权无法扎根 ————里根,1982
    这句话或许可以为下面一个问题,提供方向

  • 品牌主播离中国版COSTCO可能更近 ————俞军
    细想还真是有可能

Interesting

  • 普京体制的裂痕:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OmbqPcWnAa8YXEdhgc8v9Q
    Backup:https://archive.ph/iq9w5

  • 普京权力圈层的人:

    • 普京的随从:服务于普京的信息人士,且能最早知晓信息
    • 普京的朋友与同事:
      • 国有寡头:体制内的自由主义者
      • 国家经理:
      • 私营企业主:提供服务(例如为克里米亚提供贷款资金)
    • 政治和技术官僚
    • 干活者
    • 护卫者
  • 美国支持的阿富汗政府、国民党政府,虽然都有民主的倾向,但最终都因为腐败而丢掉政权,这后面的逻辑是什么?

  • 美国例外论:https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/美國例外論
    概念为:美利坚合众国与美国人在世界上地位独特,是世界上第一个、也是独一无二,以自由、个人主义、法律面前人人平等、自由放任资本主义等思想为建国基础的国家;人民特别富裕幸福,国家特别稳定强盛,并在世界上领导与保卫自由潮流,因此独特优越,具有其他国家无可比拟之处

  • Facebook用户增长部门的负责人出来做二级市场,大举买入的公司是亚马逊而非脸书,他的理由是:亚马逊是规模驱动的,FB是抓住了用户行为,但是年轻用户不断会有新的行为出来,FB永远都不是安全的。

  • Management is a job, leadership is the quality you have to earn

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