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2021年巴菲特股东会精华29问

 原文:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nopZI0Qs8T4fT4wBI6KtGQ

BackUp:https://archive.ph/nTiSJ

  • 如果航空公司有像我们这样的股东,持股8%、9%,财力十分雄厚,那它们去找政府救济,政府可能不会出手那么大方。
  • 伯克希尔有个信条:我们不把命运交到别人手里。
  • 芒格:好啊。与持有指数相比,我本人更愿意持有伯克希尔。我持有伯克希尔觉得很安心。与市场中的一揽子公司相比,我们伯克希尔下属的公司更优秀。
  • 我看好伯克希尔,但是普通人没有选股的能力。
  • 买指数基金那部分在我的遗产中占比还不到1%。
  • Apple具有强大的品牌和出色的产品。
  • 乔布斯在产品创新方面的成就,蒂姆·库克难以企及。但是,蒂姆·库克在企业管理方面的成绩,乔布斯也未必能做得到。
  • Apple的消费者遍布全球,我能看到Apple的未来。至于价格是否太高,这就涉及投资中的一个根本问题。利率之于资产价格,正如重力之于物质。
  • 短期国债利率被视为无风险利率,是衡量所有其他资产价值的标准。
  • 关键问题就是将来的利率会怎样。
  • 我和查理认为,在我们经历过的经济学现象中,我们眼前正在上演的这一幕,最耐人寻味。
  • 利率变成零如同地球失去了引力。把钱借给政府,利率是每年负的2%,我说的是名义利率,这是一条通往破产的道路。
  • 1936年,凯恩斯在《就业、利息和货币通论》中写道:“当企业是稳定的主流,而投机者只是其中的泡沫时,投机者没什么危害。但是,当投机成为汹涌的潮流,而企业沦为其中的泡沫之时,投机危害极大。
  • 芒格:是,没错。我称之为受管理费驱使的投资。他们买入不是因为值得投资,而是为了赚管理费。这种行为越多,对文明的玷污越严重。
  • 芒格:我不是那个意思。我批评的不是赌场里的升斗小民,我斥责的是那些坑蒙拐骗的专业人士。
  • 芒格:毫无疑问,投资更难了。当前局势导致的一个结果是伯尼·桑德斯胜利了。现在所有东西的价格都飙升,利率却创下新低,与我们这代人相比,千禧一代想变富的难度大大增加了。(Silas: 真是大实话)
  • 芒格:只是为了推高股价而回购股票,这样的行为绝对不符合道德准则。为了留下来的股东的利益,用公允的价格回购股票,这种回购符合道德准则。批评后一种回购的人,脑袋让门挤了。
  • 我认为的第一大风险,招股书中从来不说这是第一大风险。第一大风险是公司选错了管理者。(Silas:老巴的尖锐吐槽)
  • 比特币的成功,让我感到痛心。这是一种受到绑架犯、敲诈勒索犯欢迎的货币,我怎么能喜欢?(芒格)
  • 好生意一个是稀有,另一个是未必能一直好下去。我们一直都在努力寻找好生意。我们找到了几个相当好的生意,但是我们没有像Apple、Google 等那么大的好生意。
  • 在前面给大家看过的市值最高的20大公司列表中,有三家公司来自中国。30年后,应该会有所变化。我估计会有更多中国公司上榜。
  • 对于任何一家公司而言,董事会面临的最大风险都是选错了CEO。
  • 在人类的所有名言中,我最喜欢的一个金句来自英国著名演员塞德里克·哈德威克爵士。他说:“我入戏一辈子,把自己都演没了。”
  • 目前来看,我们放权的做法利大于弊。可惜,很少有人模仿我们的做法。
  • 文化是公司的一部分。只要我们能保护好伯克希尔的文化,伯克希尔能走得很远,远到让人们不敢相信。顺便说一下,罗马帝国能够长期辉煌,也是因为它充分放权。
  • 在一个已经非常富庶的社会中,有些人赤裸裸地把人类的赌性玩弄于股掌之中,还能大发横财,这是文明社会中的一种丑恶现象。
  • 卖彩票的那些州,它们取代了黑手党,把彩票生意拿到了自己手里。说白了,就这么回事。它们把黑手党推到一边,说:“这是我们的生意,你们走开。”美国政府做的这件事让我抬不起头来。
  • 芒格点评Robinhood: 最可恶的是,明明是肮脏的勾当,做起来却冠冕堂皇。卖彩票的州和Robinhood 是半斤八两。

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