BG投资十问（Baillie Gifford）

1，公司是否能正面推动经济、社会或者文化发展？

如果做不到，BG可能就不会再往下看了。比如军火、赌博类公司再便宜，BG不会去看。

2，公司销售额在5年之内能否翻倍？

为什么要讨论销售额？因为BG关注公司成长，销售额是比较简单直观的指标，而利润可有一些方法调节。所以，BG主要先关注销售额，再看现金流。

3，公司5年之后会怎么样？

这是未来5到10年或者5到15年的中间维度，一是看公司的成长空间究竟还有多大，二是考虑5年之后，公司的短期估值会不会下降，会不会变得成熟。

4，公司的竞争优势到底是什么？随着时间会变强还是变弱？

BG认为，如果公司的竞争优势是不断变弱的，将来在更远期挣回现金流的可能性就更低了。

5，公司是否有非常独特的文化？文化是否能够进化？

毕竟要投资这么长时间，对创始人和公司管理文化是非常关注的。特别喜欢创始人领导的公司，而不是说创始人什么都不干，创始人在做房地产，找了一些人在做新公司，要尽量避免这样的公司。

谈到进化在BG看来，大部分公司都会有大公司病，需要看它怎么能维持比较灵活的管理，变大之后还能够保持非常快速的成长，比如亚马逊的day one文化（注：就是始终处在创业启动状态，充满迷茫和压力，但是充满创造力和颠覆思想）。

6，公司过去的回报率怎么样？

一方面是考虑到公司的ROE（净资产收益率），二是考虑公司的Margins（利润），看它的过去是不是值得投资，如果每年ROE都不到10个点，可能长期来看也没什么意思。

7，ROE能不能随着时间增长？

有些公司一开始没有盈利，一直在烧钱，5年之后说不定ROE会到20%或者更高，它是一个动态过程。这样的公司BG也会投资，包括一些早期项目，很多公司都是没有盈利的。

8，公司怎么分配资本？

资本现金流无非就是5种方法：再投资、收购、还债、分红、回购股份，要看公司在某个阶段的资本分配是不是最优的。

如果公司明明可以发展更多，结果乱分红了；或者是明明到了特别成熟的时候，还不愿意分红，都是错误的分配资本。

9，公司怎样才能长成5倍？

BG关注的是怎样，而不是能不能。这会强迫BG每个人去设想一些未来的可能性，包括公司现在的底层架构能不能够延伸到更多的业务。

比如，早期的亚马逊或者是阿里，连一个概念都没有，BG会考虑这个公司有没有这种机遇，以后去扩展到可触及的市场。

10，市场对公司有哪些误解，哪些事情是市场没有反映出来的？

Interview at the All Things Digital D5 Conference, Steve and Bill Gates spoke with journalists Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg onstage in May 2007.

Kara Swisher: The first question I was interested in asking is what you think each has contributed to the computer and technology industry— starting with you, Steve, for Bill, and vice versa. Steve Jobs: Well, Bill built the first software company in the industry. And I think he built the first software company before anybody really in our industry knew what a software company was, except for these guys. And that was huge. That was really huge. And the business model that they ended up pursuing turned out to be the one that worked really well for the industry. I think the biggest thing was, Bill was really focused on software before almost anybody else had a clue that it was really the software that— KS: Was important? SJ: That’s what I see. I mean, a lot of other things you could say, but that’s the high-order bit. And I think building a company’s really hard, and it requires your greatest persuasive abilities to hire the best ...

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产品随想 | 周刊第43期：历史上的今天

Products Huberman Lab https://hubermanlab.com/ 一款聚焦于健康的播客今日热榜 https://tophub.today/ 聚合展示，国内各热门榜单，对跟进热点非常有帮助，热点运营的好帮手 SketchyBar https://github.com/FelixKratz/SketchyBar A highly customizable macOS status bar replacement Mac菜单栏定制自定义程度很高，看作者展示的案例，暂时没想出这样的好处（不过应用本身的编辑，确实也没啥意义）生命在于折腾吧！ Thanks-Mirror https://github.com/eryajf/Thanks-Mirror 整理记录各个包管理器，系统镜像，以及常用软件的好用镜像，Thanks Mirror。 Musicn https://github.com/zonemeen/musicn 一个下载高品质音乐的命令行工具，音乐来源: 咪咕 Planet Minecraft A creative Minecraft community fansite sharing maps, minecraft skins, resource packs, servers, mods, and more. 里面有很多动人的故事可能是世界上最大的Minecraft社区，从2010年至今 The Uncensored Library https://www.uncensoredlibrary.com/en blockworks https://www.blockworks.uk/ "Distinctive maps for Minecraft that have educated players and risen to the level of art" 游戏也可以让人有更高的实现，而不仅仅是沉迷其中，国外游戏厂商比我们做的好太多 Minecraft_Memory_Bypass_GUI https://github.com/xingchuanzhen/Minecraft_Memory_Bypass_GUI 绕过Minecraft...

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巴菲特致股东信-1976年

笔记：为什么选择轻资产行业：当竞争疯狂时，不会强迫加入降价大战最终选择了费雪的思想，选择能理解的优秀企业，以合理的价格买入并长期拥有翻译：雪球：https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131440258 备份：https://archive.ph/XLK0S 原文： To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc, After two dismal years, operating results in 1976 improved significantly. Last year we said the degree of progress in insurance underwriting would determine whether our gain in earnings would be "moderate" or "major." As it turned out, earnings exceeded even the high end of our expectations. In large part, this was due to the outstanding efforts of Phil Liesche's managerial group at National Indemnity Company. In dollar terms, operating earnings came to $16,073,000, or $16.47 per share. While this is a record figure, we consider return on shareholders' equity to be a much more significant yardstick of economic performance. Here our result was 17.3%, moderately above our long-term average and even further above the average o...

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巴菲特致股东信-1973年

笔记：在上一年度预测的今年竞争加剧导致利润下滑，真的发生了翻译Link：雪球：https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131257618 备份：https://archive.ph/KIfdT 原文： To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: Our financial results for 1973 were satisfactory, with operating earnings of $11,930,592, producing a return of 17.4% on beginning stockholders' equity. Although operating earnings improved from $11.43 to $12.18 per share, earnings on equity decreased from the 19.8% of 1972. This decline occurred because the gain in earnings was not commensurate with the increase in shareholders' investment. We had forecast in last year's report that such a decline was likely. Unfortunately, our forecast proved to be correct. Our textile, banking, and most insurance operations had good years, but certain segments of the insurance business turned in poor results. Overall, our insurance business continues to be a most attractive area in which to employ capital. Management'...

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Commencement Address at Stanford University--“Stay hungry. Stay foolish.”

I am honored to be with you today for your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. Truth be told— I never graduated from college. This is the closest I’ve ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That’s it. No big deal. Just three stories. The first story is about connecting the dots. I dropped out of Reed College after the first six months but then stayed around as a drop-in for another eighteen months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out? It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting...

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巴菲特致股东信-1975年

笔记：华盛顿邮报已成为伯克希尔第一重仓股翻译：雪球：https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131409324 备份：https://archive.ph/4hgK3 原文： To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: Last year, when discussing the prospects for 1975, we stated “the outlook for 1975 is not encouraging.” This forecast proved to be distressingly accurate. Our operating earnings for 1975 were $6,713,592, or $6.85 per share, producing a return on beginning shareholders ’ equity of 7.6%. This is the lowest return on equity experienced since 1967. Furthermore, as explained later in this letter, a large segment of these earnings resulted from Federal income tax refunds which will not be available to assist performance in 1976. On balance, however, current trends indicate a somewhat brighter 1976. Operations and prospects will be discussed in greater detail below, under specific industry titles. Our expectation is that significantly better results in textiles, earnings added from recent acquisitio...

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产品随想 | 周刊第90期：史家之绝唱，无韵之离骚

Why AI Will Save the World https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/ Marc Andreessen的雄文，十分有說服力，邏輯清晰辯證了現今AI監管拋出的5個可能的AI問題讀的過程中，腦海裏浮現的都是編程隨想那篇文章为什么马克思是错的？——全面批判马列主义的知名著作导读 https://program-think.blogspot.com/2018/09/Book-Review-The-Errors-of-Marxism-Leninism.html 兩者的思維鏈條、敘事方式，非常相似人民聖殿教 https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/人民圣殿教?useskin=vector 瓊斯自稱是神的化身，幾千年前轉世為釋迦牟尼，創建了佛教；後來又轉世為耶穌基督，創建了基督教；之後短期化身轉世為巴孛，建立巴哈伊信仰；最後轉世為列寧，將社會主義發揚光大。邪教徒聲稱自己轉世成了列寧，這說明了什麼？ Apple Vision https://stratechery.com/2023/apple-vision Omnivore https://github.com/omnivore-app/omnivore Omnivore is a complete, open source read-it-later solution for people who like reading. How the YouTube Algorithm Works in 2023: The Complete Guide https://blog.hootsuite.com/how-the-youtube-algorithm-works/#A_brief_history_of_the_YouTube_algorithm 外人眼中的YouTube推薦算法變遷 Histography https://histography.io/ “Histography" is interactive timeline that spans across 14 billion years of history, f...

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Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone on January 9, 2007.

This is a day I’ve been looking forward to for two and a half years. Link Every once in a while, a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything. And Apple has been— well, first of all, one’s very fortunate if you get to work on just one of these in your career. Apple’s been very fortunate. It’s been able to introduce a few of these into the world. In 1984, we introduced the Macintosh. It didn’t just change Apple, it changed the whole computer industry. In 2001, we introduced the first iPod, and it didn’t just change the way we all listen to music, it changed the entire music industry. Well, today, we’re introducing three revolutionary products of this class. The first one is a widescreen iPod with touch controls. The second is a revolutionary mobile phone. And the third is a breakthrough internet communications device. So, three things: a widescreen iPod with touch controls; a revolutionary mobile phone; and a breakthrough internet communicat...

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犀流研习班第十期001-2讲听课笔记

一. 杂谈 1. Max 逼真的效果图和视频 2. SU 显示模式，费力可以作出好看的效果图 3. Maya 支持Nurbs,但不快捷，对CAD导出也不方便

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产品随想 | 周刊第69期：Do not go gentle into that good night

Products Windows Apps That Amaze Us https://amazing-apps.gitbook.io/windows-apps-that-amaze-us/ 令人精细的Windows App 文物出版社 https://book.douban.com/press/2456/ 这是一个宝藏出版社，出品书籍质量非常高，大开眼界 blind https://www.teamblind.com/ 老外的匿名职场社交工具，挺有意思，看看硅谷的meme 中国科学技术大学测速网站 https://test.ustc.edu.cn/ 看着还不错，挺靠谱的底层代码是LibreSpeed https://github.com/librespeed/speedtest 能不能好好说话？ https://github.com/itorr/nbnhhsh 也是我的一个痛点 Tree Style Tab (aka TST) https://github.com/piroor/treestyletab 一个超强的浏览器扩展插件，树状呈现浏览器标签 Failory Pitch Decks https://www.failory.com/pitch-deck 超级多的融资计划投资板，Pitch Book AutoCut https://github.com/mli/autocut 用文本编辑器剪视频全网漫游指南 https://tagly.notion.site/tagly/a333efd8c3e54e12b123acd541e8d3e6 数字时代的指引，希望他们成功 IT eBooks https://it-ebooks.info/ IT书籍下载 ToastFish https://github.com/Uahh/ToastFish 一个利用摸鱼时间背单词的软件。利用Win10通知栏，出现、背单词 Ideas 沈向洋：IDEA 如何找到创新的「甜区」 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OlI5VUxQKU_ijWZClQCG0Q AIGC How Did Nor...

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