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巴菲特致股东信-1973年

 笔记:

  • 在上一年度预测的今年竞争加剧导致利润下滑,真的发生了

翻译Link:

  • 雪球:https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131257618
  • 备份:https://archive.ph/KIfdT

原文:

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our financial results for 1973 were satisfactory, with operating earnings of $11,930,592, producing a return of 17.4% on beginning stockholders' equity.

Although operating earnings improved from $11.43 to $12.18 per share, earnings on equity decreased from the 19.8% of 1972. This decline occurred because the gain in earnings was not commensurate with the increase in shareholders' investment. We had forecast in last year's report that such a decline was likely. Unfortunately, our forecast proved to be correct.

Our textile, banking, and most insurance operations had good years, but certain segments of the insurance business turned in poor results. Overall, our insurance business continues to be a most attractive area in which to employ capital.

Management's objective is to achieve a return on capital over the long term which averages somewhat higher than that of American industry generally—while utilizing sound accounting and debt policies. We have achieved this goal in the last few years, and are trying to take those steps which will enable us to maintain this performance in the future. Prospects for 1974 indicate some further decline in rate of return on our enlarged capital base.

Textile Operations

Textile demand remained unusually strong throughout 1973. Our main problems revolved around shortages of fiber, which complicated operations and resulted in something less than full utilization of loom capacity. Prices of some fibers skyrocketed during the year. Cost of Living Council regulations prevented the pricing of many finished products at levels of some of our competitors. However, profits were reasonably commensurate with our capital investment, although below those that apparently might have been achieved had we been able to price at market levels. The textile business has been highly cyclical and price controls may haveserved to cut down some of the hills while still leaving us with the inevitable valleys. Because of the extraordinary price rises in raw materials during 1973, which show signs of continuing in 1974, we have elected to adopt the "lifo" method of inventory pricing. This method more nearly matches current costs against current revenues, and minimizes inventory "profits" included in reported earnings.

Further information on this change is included in the footnotes to our financial statements.

Insurance Operations

During 1973, Jack Ringwalt retired as President of National Indemnity Company after an absolutely brilliant record since founding the business in 1940. He was succeeded by Phil Liesche who, fortunately for us, possesses the same underwriting and managerial philosophy that worked

so well for Jack. Our traditional business, specialized auto and general liability lines conducted through National Indemnity Company and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company, had an exceptionally fine underwriting year during 1973. Weagain experienced a decline in volume.

Competition was intense, and we passed up the chance to match rate-cutting by more optimistic underwriters. There currently are faint indications that some of these competitors are learning of the inadequacy of their rates (and also of their loss reserves) which may result in easing of market pressures as the year develops. If so, we may again experience volume increases.

Our reinsurance operation had a somewhat similar year—good underwriting experience, but difficulty in maintaining previous volume levels. This operation, guided by the tireless and well- directed efforts of George Young,has been a major profit producer since its inception in 1969. Our "home state" insurance companies made excellent progress in Nebraska and Minnesota, with both good growth in volume and acceptable loss ratios. We began operations late in the year in Iowa. To date, our big problem has been Texas. In that state we virtually had to start over during 1973 as the initial management we selected proved incapable of underwriting successfully. The Texas experience has been expensive, and we still have our work cut out for us. Overall, however, the home state operation appears to have a promising potential.

Our specialized urban auto operation, Home and Automobile Insurance Company, experienced very poor underwriting in Chicago during 1973. It would appear that rates are inadequate in our primary Cook County marketing area, although the current energy situation confuses the picture. The question is whether possible lowered accident frequency because of reduced driving will more than offset continuing inflation in medical and repair costs, as well as jury awards. We believe that inflation will hurt us more than reduced driving will help us, but some of our competitors appear to believe otherwise. Home and Auto expanded into Florida and California during the year, but it is too early to know how these moves will prove out financially.

A contributing factor in our unsatisfactory earnings at Home and Auto during 1973 was an accounting system which was not bringing information to management on a sufficiently timely basis. On the investment side of our insurance operation, we made substantial additional commitments in common stocks during 1973. We had significant unrealized depreciation—over $12 million— in our common stock holdings at year-end, as indicated in our financial statements. Nevertheless, we believe that our common stock portfolio at cost represents good value in terms of intrinsic business worth. In spite of the large unrealized loss at year-end, we would expect satisfactory results from the portfolio over the longer term.

Banking Operations

The Illinois National Bank & Trust Co. of Rockford again had a record year in 1973. Average deposits were approximately $130 million, of which approximately 60% were time deposits. Interest rates were increased substantially in the important consumer savings area when regulatory maximums were raised at mid-year. Despite this mix heavily weighted toward interest bearing deposits, our operating earnings after taxes (including a new Illinois state income tax) were again

over 2.1% of average deposits. We continue to be the largest bank in Rockford. We continue to maintain unusual liquidity. We continue to meet the increasing loan demands of our customers. And we continue to maintain our unusual profitability. This is a direct tribute to the abilities of Gene Abegg, Chairman, who has been running the Bank since it opened its doors in 1931, and Bob Kline, our President.

Merger With Diversified Retailing Company, Inc.

Your Directors have approved the merger of Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. into Berkshire Hathaway Inc. on terms involving issuance of 195,000 shares of Berkshire stock for the 1,000,000 shares of Diversified stock outstanding. Because Diversified and its subsidiaries own 109,551 shares of Berkshire, the net increase in the number of shares of Berkshire outstanding after giving effect to this transaction will not exceed 85,449. Variousregulatory approvals must be obtained before this merger can be completed, and proxy material will be submitted to you later this year so that you may vote upon it. Diversified Retailing Company, Inc., though subsidiaries, operates a chain of popular-priced women's apparel stores and also conducts a reinsurance business. In the opinion of management, its most important asset is 16% of the stock of Blue Chip Stamps.

Blue Chip Stamps

Our holdings of stock in Blue Chip Stamps at year-end amounted to approximately 19% of that company's outstanding shares. Since year-end, we have increased our holdings so that they now represent approximately 22.5%: implementation of the proposed merger with Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. would increase this figure to about 38.5%.

Our equity in earnings of Blue Chip Stamps became significant for the first time in 1973, and posed an accounting question as to just what period's earnings should be recognized by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as applicable to the financial statements covered by this annual report. Blue Chip's fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to February 28, or two months after the fiscal year-end of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Or, viewed alternatively, their year ends ten months prior to Berkshire Hathaway's. An acceptable accounting choice for us, and one which, if made, would not have required an auditor's disclaimer as to scope, was to recognize in our 1973 income an equity of $632,000 in Blue Chip's earnings for their year ended March 3, 1973 with regard to the fewer shares of Blue Chip we owned during this earlier period. But such an approach seemed at odds with reality, and would have meant a ten month lag each year in the future. Therefore, we chose to reflect as 1973 income our equity of $1,008,000 in Blue Chip's earnings based upon unaudited interim earnings through November as publicly reported by Blue Chip Stamps and with regard to our shareholdings during 1973.

Because we made this choice of unaudited but current figures, as opposed to the alternative of audited but far from current figures, Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. were unable to express an opinion on our 1973 earnings attributable to Blue Chip Stamps.

The annual report of Blue Chip Stamps, which will contain financial statements for the year

ending March 2, 1974 audited by Price, Waterhouse and Company, will be available in early May. Any shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. who desires an annual report of Blue Chip Stamps may obtain it at that time by writing Mr. Robert H. Bird, Secretary, Blue Chip Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040. Blue Chip's trading stamp business has declined drastically over the past year or so, but it has important sources of earning power in its See's Candy Shops subsidiary as well as Wesco Financial Corporation, a 54% owned subsidiary engaged in the savings and loan business. We expect Blue Chip Stamps to achieve satisfactory earnings in future years related to capital employed, although certainly at a much lower level than would have been achieved if the trading stamp business had been maintained at anything close to former levels.

Your Chairman is on the Board of Directors of Blue Chip Stamps, as well as Wesco Financial Corporation, and is Chairman of the Board of See's Candy Shops Incorporated. Operating management of all three entities is in the hands of firstclass, able, experienced executives.

Sun Newspapers, Inc.

In the 1969 annual report we commented on the purchase of Sun Newspapers Inc., a group of weekly papers published in the metropolitan Omaha area. Since that time we have not commented on their operations in the text of our annual reports, nor have we consolidated their financial results since the operation, because of the small investment involved, has been "financially insignificant." During 1973 it was made quite apparent that such insignificance did not extend to publishing quality. On May 7th Sun Newspapers was awarded a Pulitzer Prize for local investigative reporting (the first time in history that a weekly had won in this category) for its special section of March 30,1972 relating to Boys Town. We reported the extraordinary contrast between decreasing services and mounting wealth that had taken place since Father Flanagan's death in 1948.

In addition to the Pulitzer Prize, the reporting job also won the Public Service Award of Sigma Delta Chi, the national society of professional journalists, as well as seven other national awards. Our congratulations go to Paul Williams, Editor, and Stan Lipsey, Publisher, as well as the entire editorial staff of Sun Newspapers for their achievement, which vividly illustrated that size need not be equated with significance in publishing.

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board March 29,1974


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  Steve Jobs, who died October 5 after resigning in August as CEO of Apple, the company he co-founded, had many talents. But what set him apart from other computer wizards was his artistic sense. He continually used the word “taste” in explaining what was ready to be manufactured at Apple, and what wasn’t ready yet—what he had to reject. The Apple computer, the iPhone, the iPad and the iPod are all strikingly beautiful objects; the clarity of their visual design matches the way they function. It’s clear that Steve Jobs was an artist and that his artistry worked at many levels: it was a visual sensitivity that extended outward to a way of thinking about how things worked and how different variables could interact with each other in a pleasing harmony. Where did this ability come from? Jobs gave some credit for his success to a seemingly unlikely source—a course on calligraphy that he took as an undergraduate at Reed College, a course established by a maverick profes...

巴菲特致股东信-1969年

 编者笔记: 巴菲特正式清算合伙人企业。 我把它们视为实业,而非股票,如果长期而言实业的业绩良好,那么股票也会有着同样的表现。 我不想解散一个雇佣了1100人的生意,尤其在管理层已经在努力改善公司相对整体行业的表现,而且也取得了合理结果的时候,同时该业务目前尚不需要额外的资本投入。 但是如果未来我们面临需要投入大量资本,或者该业务遭受相当程度的损失时,我将做出不同的决定。 原文: 1969 年 5 月 29 日 致合伙人: 大概在 18 个月以前,我曾经给你们致信,认为投资环境和我个人情况的变化将导致我对我 们未来业绩预期做出调整。 我当时所讨论的投资环境 ,已经变得更加的恶劣且令人沮丧 。也许我仅仅是缺乏从精神层面 进行调整的能力。(正如一位评论家对超过 40 岁的证券分析师所评价的那样:“他们知道太 多如今已不再适用的东西 。”) 虽然如此,就我看来: (1) 在过去的二十年中,对于数量(定量)分析方法所能把握的机会 之水已经逐渐干涸 ,到今天可以说是已经完全枯竭了 ;( 2 )我们的资金基数已经达到一个亿 , 也就是说不超过三百万的投资量对于我们净资产的影响几乎可以忽略不计 ,实际上我们的投 资标的的市值已经不能低于一亿美元 ;( 3 )大量地对于投资的专注已经导致市场的交易行为 变得极度追求短期的利润,市场的投机性大大增加。 在 1967 年 10 月的信中我亦提到个人境遇的变化是我调整我们未来收益预期的最重要的原 因。我表达了自己不想再在合伙公司上注入我 100% 的精力的愿望。然而在过去的 18 个月 中我完全没有做到这一点。我曾经写到 :“希望随着预期的降低,我的对此投入的个人努力 也可以随之降低 。”然而实际上完全不是这样,我发现只要我一天还在管理合伙企业,我就 完全无法让自己投入到其它与之无关的东西上去。我不想让自己成为一个永远管理着资金 , 追逐着投资收益的疯狂的兔子,而唯一让我放缓脚步的办法,就是将其停止。 所以,在年底之前,我希望所有的有限合伙人都能正式地得知我的退休愿望。 1969 年 10 月 9 日 致合伙人: 以下是接下来我认为对于我的退休将要涉及的事情: ( 1 )向你们介绍一下 Bill...