跳至主要内容

巴菲特致股东信-1972年

 笔记:

  • 经营保险的思路是重视长期,不低价特别是不合理地低价抢保单
  • 获得一笔长达20年的贷款,利率仅8%

原文:


Link:
  • https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131103213
  • 备份:https://archive.ph/fjGyy 

the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Operating earnings of Berkshire Hathaway during 1972 amounted to a highly satisfactory 19.8% of beginning shareholders’ equity. Significant improvement was recorded in all of our major lines of business, but the most dramatic gains were in insurance underwriting profit. Due to an unusual convergence of favorable factors—diminishing auto accident frequency, moderating accident severity, and an absence of major catastrophes—underwriting profit margins achieved a level far above averages of the past or expectations of the future.

While we anticipate a modest decrease in operating earnings during 1973, it seems clear that our diversification moves of recent years have established a significantly higher base of normal earning power. Yourpresent management assumed policy control of the company in May, 1965.

Eight years later, our 1972 operating earnings of $11,116,256 represent a return many-fold higher than would have been produced had we continued to devote our resources entirely to the textile business. At the end of the 1964 fiscal year, shareholders’ equity totaled $22,138,753.Since that time, no additional equity capital has been introduced into the business, either through cash sale or through merger. On the contrary, some stock has been reacquired, reducing outstanding shares by 14%. The increase in book value per share from $19.46 at fiscal year-end 1964 to $69.72 at 1972 year-end amounts to about 16.5% compounded annually.

Our three major acquisitions of recent years have all worked out exceptionally well—from both the financial and human standpoints. In all three cases, the founders were major sellers andreceived significant proceeds in cash—and, in all three cases, the same individuals, Jack Ringwalt, Gene Abegg and Vic Raab, have continued to run the businesses with undiminished energy and imagination which have resulted in further improvement of the fine records previously established.

We will continue to search for logical extensions of our present operations, and also for new operations which will allow us to continue to employ our capital effectively.

Textile Operations

As predicted in last year’s annual report, the textile industry experienced a pickup in 1972. In recent years, Ken Chace and Ralph Rigby have developed an outstanding sales organization enjoying a growing reputation for service and reliability. Manufacturing capabilities have been restructured to complement our sales strengths.

Helped by the industry recovery, we experienced some payoff from these efforts in 1972.

Inventories were controlled, minimizing close-out losses in addition to minimizing capital requirements; product mix was greatly improved. While the general level of profitability of the

industry will always be the primary factor in determining the level of our textile earnings, we believe that our relative position within the industry has noticeably improved. The outlook for 1973 is good.

Insurance Underwriting

Our exceptional underwriting profits during 1972 in the large traditional area of our insurance business at National Indemnity present a paradox. They served to swell substantially total corporate profits for 1972, but the factors which produced such profits induced exceptional amounts of new competition at what we believe to be a non-compensatory level of rates. Overall, we probably would have retained better prospects for the next five years if profits had not risen so dramatically this year.

Substantial new competition was forecast in our annual report for last year and we experienced in 1972 the decline in premium volume that we stated such competition implied. Our belief is that industry underwriting profit margins will narrow substantially in 1973 or 1974 and, in time, this may produce an environment in which our historical growth can be resumed. Unfortunately, there is a lag between deterioration of underwriting results and tempering of competition. During this period we expect to continue to have negative volume comparisons in our traditional operation. Our seasoned management, headed by Jack Ringwalt and Phil Liesche, will continue to underwrite to produce a profit, although not at the level of 1972, and base our rates on longterm expectations rather than short-term hopes. Although this approach has meant dips in volume from time to time in the past, it has produced excellent long-term results.

Also as predicted in last year’s report, our reinsurance division experienced many of the same competitive factors in 1972. A multitude of new organizations entered what has historically been a rather small field, and rates were often cut substantially, and we believe unsoundly, particularly in the catastrophe area. The past year turned out to be unusually free of catastrophes and our underwriting experience was good.

George Young has built a substantial and profitable reinsurance operation in just a few years. In the longer term we plan to be a very major factor in the reinsurance field, but an immediate expansion of volume is not sensible against a background of deteriorating rates. In our view, underwriting exposures are greater than ever. When the loss potential inherent in such exposures becomes an actuality, repricing will take place which should give us a chance to expand significantly.

In the “home state” operation, our oldest and largest such company, Cornhusker Casualty Company, operating in Nebraska only, achieved good underwriting results. In the second full year, the home state marketing appeal has been proven with the attainment of volume on the order of one-third of that achieved by “old line” giants who have operated in the state for manydecades.

Our two smaller companies, in Minnesota and Texas, had unsatisfactory loss ratios on very small volume. The home state managements understand that underwriting profitably is the yardstick of

success and that operations can only be expanded significantly when it is clear that we are doing the right job in the underwriting area. Expense ratios at the new companies are also high, but that is to be expected when they are in the development stage.

John Ringwalt has done an excellent job of launching this operation, and plans to expand into at least one additional state during 1973. While there is much work yet to be done, the home state operation appears to have major long-range potential.

Last year it was reported that we had acquired Home and Automobile Insurance Company of Chicago. We felt good about the acquisition at the time, and we feel even better now. Led by Vic Raab, this company continued its excellent record in 1972. During 1973 we expect to enter the Florida (Dade County) and California (Los Angeles) markets with the same sort of specialized urban auto coverage which Home and Auto has practiced so successfully in Cook County. Vic has the managerial capacity to run a much larger operation. Our expectation is that Home and Auto will expand significantly within a few years.

Insurance Investment Results

We were most fortunate to experience dramatic gains in premium volume from 1969 to 1971 coincidental with virtually record-high interest rates. Large amounts of investable funds were thus received at a time when they could be put to highly advantageous use. Most of these funds were placed in tax-exempt bonds and our investment income, which has increased from $2,025,201 in 1969 to $6,755,242 in 1972, is subject to a low effective tax rate.

Our bond portfolio possesses unusually good call protection, and we will benefit for many years to come from the high average yield of the present portfolio. The lack of current premium growth, however, will moderate substantially the growth in investment income during the next several years.

Banking Operations

Our banking subsidiary, The Illinois Bank and Trust Co. of Rockford, maintained its position of industry leadership in profitability. After-tax earnings of 2.2% on average deposits in 1972 are the more remarkable when evaluated against such moderating factors as: (1) a mix of 50% time deposits heavily weighted toward consumer savings instruments, all paying the maximum rates permitted by law; (2) an unvaryingly strong liquid position and avoidance of money-market borrowings; (3) a loan policy which has produced a net charge-off ratio in the last two years of about 5% of that of the average commercial bank. This record is a direct tribute to the leadership of Gene Abegg and Bob Kline who run a bank where the owners and the depositors can both eat well and sleep well.

During 1972, interest paid to depositors was double the amount paid in 1969. We have aggressively sought consumer time deposits, but have not pushed for large “money market” certificates of deposit although, during the past several years, they have generally been a less

costly source of time funds.

During the past year, loans to our customers expanded approximately 38%. This is considerably more than indicated by the enclosed balance sheet which includes $10.9 million in short-term commercial paper in the 1971 loan total, but which has no such paper included at the end of 1972.

Our position as “Rockford’s Leading Bank” was enhanced during 1972. Present rate structures, a decrease in investable funds due to new Federal Reserve collection procedures, and a probable increase in already substantial non-federal taxes make it unlikely that Illinois National will be able to increase its earnings during 1973.

Financial

On March 15, 1973, Berkshire Hathaway borrowed $20 million at 8% from twenty institutional lenders. This loan is due March 1, 1993, with principal repayments beginning March 1, 1979.

From the proceeds, $9 million was used to repay our bank loan and the balance is being invested in insurance subsidiaries. Periodically, we expect that there will be opportunities to achieve significant expansion in our insurance business and we intend to have the financial resources available to maximize such opportunities.

Our subsidiaries in banking and insurance have major fiduciary responsibilities to their customers. In these operations we maintain capital strength far above industry norms, but still achieve a good level of profitability on such capital. We will continue to adhere to the former objective and make every effort to continue to maintain the latter.

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board March 16, 1973


Popular posts from 产品随想的博客

产品随想 | 周刊 第69期:Do not go gentle into that good night

Products Windows Apps That Amaze Us   https://amazing-apps.gitbook.io/windows-apps-that-amaze-us/ 令人精细的Windows App 文物出版社   https://book.douban.com/press/2456/ 这是一个宝藏出版社,出品书籍质量非常高,大开眼界 blind   https://www.teamblind.com/ 老外的匿名职场社交工具,挺有意思,看看硅谷的meme 中国科学技术大学测速网站   https://test.ustc.edu.cn/ 看着还不错,挺靠谱的 底层代码是LibreSpeed   https://github.com/librespeed/speedtest 能不能好好说话?   https://github.com/itorr/nbnhhsh 也是我的一个痛点 Tree Style Tab (aka TST)   https://github.com/piroor/treestyletab 一个超强的浏览器扩展插件,树状呈现浏览器标签 Failory Pitch Decks   https://www.failory.com/pitch-deck 超级多的融资计划投资板,Pitch Book AutoCut   https://github.com/mli/autocut 用文本编辑器剪视频 全网漫游指南   https://tagly.notion.site/tagly/a333efd8c3e54e12b123acd541e8d3e6 数字时代的指引,希望他们成功 IT eBooks   https://it-ebooks.info/ IT书籍下载 ToastFish   https://github.com/Uahh/ToastFish 一个利用摸鱼时间背单词的软件。 利用Win10通知栏,出现、背单词 Ideas 沈向洋:IDEA 如何找到创新的「甜区」   https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OlI5VUxQKU_ijWZClQCG0Q AIGC How Did Nor...

Foobar2000 组件安装教程

 原作者 博客地址   汉化作者 Asion博客   关于foobar 2000的一些资源 前言 foobar2000 由于其软件架构特点以及开放的姿态,使得第三方很容易开发组件(component)来拓展它的功能。由于在官网下载的默认安装文件只带了少量几个默认的组件,满足不了使用的需求,例如:默认不带 ape,tta,tak 等音频文件格式的解码器,很多无损压缩格式音乐没法播放。所以自己下载安装组件是必备的基本技能。 foobar2000 的中文汉化版(Asion 汉化)为了方便使用,集成了无损压缩文件解码器以及一些其它有用的插件,安装时选上即可,不喜欢折腾的建议使用汉化版。 这里组件指的是 foobar2000 标准组件(*.dll 文件),而非 vst 插件等其它插件,姑且把组件分为两类: 官方组件: 英文版安装包自带,安装时可选择; 第三方组件:非官方自带的组件 除了 foo_input_std.dll 和 foo_ui_std.dll 这两个组件是必须的外,其它的所有组件都 非必需 的,可以随需要增删。第三方组件可以去 官网 、 官方论坛 或者 官方 wiki 去找,也可以去贴吧等地逛逛。 下载 还是要强调一下,这里说的是 foobar2000 component ,不是中文网上通常说的 vst 插件。 下载好的组件包一般是 xxx.zip 或 xxx.fb2k-component 格式的文件,也有用 7z 打包的。前两种都是 zip 压缩(只要把 fb2k-component 改成 zip 文件就变成了 zip: 包)。标准状况下压缩包里的内容结构应该是 xxx.zip yyy.dll README.txt (可能没有) LICENCE.txt (可能没有) (其它杂七杂八) 除少数外一般只有一个 xxx.dll 文件.一定要注意压缩包结构不能是: xxx.zip yy folder (文件夹) zzz.dll … 否则要解压缩,提取那个 dll 文件。 安装 方法一(推荐) 打开 foobar2000 的菜单 文件 > 首选项(file >preferences) 的 组件(components...

产品随想 | 周刊 第88期:抢救中文社科历史讲座

  抢救中文人文社科历史讲座   https://github.com/jeffyus/renwenjiangzuo 苹果公司的招聘理念就是两点。 (1)优秀人才是自我管理的,但需要领导者为大家提供一个共同目标。 (2) 只有某个人看到 Macintosh 电脑感到无比兴奋,我们才会雇佣他。 ————喬布斯 衡量一个人的领导能力的最好方法,就是看如果这个人休假了,他的下属在做什么。 优秀的产品经理和工程师可以休假一周,他管理的工作不发生任何问题。优秀的主管和技术负责人可以休假一个月。领导能力越优秀,休假的时间就越长。 -- Andrew Bosworth,Facebook 的 CEO ——可惡,想了想,好像還真是這樣 阅读不会过时,除非写作过时了。写作不会过时,除非思考过时了。(Reading won't be obsolete till writing is, and writing won't be obsolete till thinking is.) -- Paul Graham ——深刻 Cheetah   https://github.com/leetcode-mafia/cheetah Cheetah is an AI-powered macOS app designed to assist users during remote software engineering interviews by providing real-time, discreet coaching and live coding platform integration. 對面試官的要求,變更高了,哈哈哈 AI's Hardware Problem   https://asianometry.substack.com/p/ais-hardware-problem 有趣,瓶頸在內存 Clash 入土为安   https://gyrojeff.top/index.php/archives/Clash-入土为安/ 有趣的介紹 OP Vault ChatGPT   https://github.com/pashpashpash/vault-ai Give ChatGPT long-term memory using the ...

Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone on January 9, 2007.

This is a day I’ve been looking forward to for two and a half years. Link Every once in a while, a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything. And Apple has been— well, first of all, one’s very fortunate if you get to work on just one of these in your career. Apple’s been very fortunate. It’s been able to introduce a few of these into the world. In 1984, we introduced the Macintosh. It didn’t just change Apple, it changed the whole computer industry. In 2001, we introduced the first iPod, and it didn’t just change the way we all listen to music, it changed the entire music industry. Well, today, we’re introducing three revolutionary products of this class. The first one is a widescreen iPod with touch controls. The second is a revolutionary mobile phone. And the third is a breakthrough internet communications device. So, three things: a widescreen iPod with touch controls; a revolutionary mobile phone; and a breakthrough internet communicat...

Interview at the All Things Digital D5 Conference, Steve and Bill Gates spoke with journalists Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg onstage in May 2007.

Kara Swisher: The first question I was interested in asking is what you think each has contributed to the computer and technology industry— starting with you, Steve, for Bill, and vice versa. Steve Jobs: Well, Bill built the first software company in the industry. And I think he built the first software company before anybody really in our industry knew what a software company was, except for these guys. And that was huge. That was really huge. And the business model that they ended up pursuing turned out to be the one that worked really well for the industry. I think the biggest thing was, Bill was really focused on software before almost anybody else had a clue that it was really the software that— KS: Was important? SJ: That’s what I see. I mean, a lot of other things you could say, but that’s the high-order bit. And I think building a company’s really hard, and it requires your greatest persuasive abilities to hire the best ...

《沸腾新十年》2007-2012

2007-2009 大幕拉启 早期玩iPhone的人觉得:它不支持复制粘贴、拍摄视频,也不能更改铃声、壁纸,还不能换电池、插存储卡,手机里的照片和备忘录等也没法复制到电脑中。(但它有Killing Feature是沉浸式的屏幕、上网功能) 在网龙的路演过程中,网龙创始人刘德建发现,在当时极为“高大上”的投资人群中,用iPhone已经蔚然成风 ──论有钱人带领的风潮 苹果早期是不支持第三方输入法的,这一问题要等到2014年iOS 8的推出才正式解决。 ──居然也封闭了整整七年 对于航班管家来说,好用户就是高频乘坐飞机出行的群体。以前,这个群体在哪里、如何捕捉,都是问题。但是iPhone的出现,天然筛选出了那些消费能力强劲的群体。 苹果公司和联通也在为没有好应用来推广iPhone而发愁,所以它们精选了6款应用。王江的航班管家和搜吃搜玩都得以入选,吃到了iPhone大推广时代的官方预装红利。 王江认为:“其实有了智能手机,才能说有了场景。你不拿着手机亲临其境,怎么叫场景呢? 触宝输入法,深合安卓早期创业的三大奥义:“高频、刚需、工具化”。 参赛是一个名利双收的大好机会,能帮助免费推广产品 魅族黄章对之前毫无保留地和雷军交流有些后悔:“我连M9的UI交互文档都发给过他,请他一起探讨。” 安卓早期的最大刚需之一是系统优化。 CyanogenMod因此成为当时全球最大的ROM开发和优化团队。 中国早期安卓生态的很大一部分是建立在CM的基础上的。最着名的有小米的MIUI团队、创新工场的点心团队、占据国内千元机市场的乐蛙OS团队等。 当时的盛大创新院群星璀璨,除了潘爱民和许式伟,还有樊一鹏“樊大师”,也有郝培强和霍炬,有极客余晟,有陆坚博士,有黄伟和吴义坚,有庄表伟,还有白宁等诸多牛人。 2012年夏天,华为的任正非在一个讲话中提到两个“备胎”计划,一个是关于芯片的,另一个就是关于操作系统的。 ──布局早在10年前 2009年,张一鸣决意离开饭否,转而去房产网站九九房,这是26岁的张一鸣从南开大学毕业后的4年里准备开启的第4段工作经历,每份工作平均也就一年多一点的时间。此时的张一鸣与大部分同龄人相比略显著急,稍显无措,全然没有日后那种长期思考的定力和耐性。 2009年12月底,王兴确定做美团。 ──原来也已经10年+ 2009年的“双11”购物节只是给淘宝商城团队找点事情的自我安慰...

ISSUU使用指南--木喵

作者: 木喵   出处: Wonderworks 问:issuu是什么? 答:Issuu是国外的一个在线文档共享网站,它是你的PDF文档发布专家。它类似于我们熟悉的youtube,但它共享的是文档、杂志之类的文本。 简而言之、同志们想看国外的各种杂志? 想找国外的汇报文本么? 想借鉴国外学生的作品集么? 那么你就要用到它啦~ 今天主要和大家讲两个方面 一、如何在pc端使用和下载issuu上的pdf文档 首先我们打开issuu的网址 https://issuu.com/ 我们可以很清楚的看到网页上呢都是国外的杂志以及一些作者自己制作的pdf文档 首先我们点击右上角的 sign up  然后填写相关信息注册一个账户: 注册完成之后我们就可以搜索我们想要找的资料: 比如说,我想找一些分析图的资料,我们就搜索: architecture diagram 然后我们就可以看到相关的文档了: 点击你所选择的文档, 好了问题来了: sorry,this publication is not available 这个时候!就需要在用pc端的我们做一件必不可少的事: 翻墙 然后我们就能将页面刷新粗来了 好、接下来是非常有建设性意义的一步 怎样把我们网页上的文件 下载下来 呢? 截图? no~no~no~ 接下来,让木喵告诉你怎么下载: 首先你需要复制上面的网址 然后将 https://wenfan.hk/issuu/index_link.php 在另一个网址中打开 将你之前复制的pdf的网址粘贴在下面的对话框中 点击 I‘m not a robot 再点击 get it 然后会出现一堆网址代码 我们 全选 打开你的迅雷点击 新建 将你之前的复制粘贴到下载链接里 然后呢~我们就全都下载成功啦~ 然后我们回到之前的网页向下看 我们可以看到有上传文档的作者(记得要关注哟) 然后还有 info   share   stack   ❤ 如果...

可能比较危险的

全网监控公司: 1)中国厦门的美亚柏科 2)KIS(Knowlesys Intelligence System) 3)除中美之外的第三大AI监控技术供应商是:日本的NEC Corporation 中国的VPN公司: 1)VyprVPN、玲珑加速器 Point: 1)被GFW屏蔽的IP,反向也会无法访问大陆网络

产品随想 | 周刊 第43期:历史上的今天

Products Huberman Lab   https://hubermanlab.com/ 一款聚焦于健康的播客 今日热榜   https://tophub.today/ 聚合展示,国内各热门榜单,对跟进热点非常有帮助,热点运营的好帮手 SketchyBar   https://github.com/FelixKratz/SketchyBar A highly customizable macOS status bar replacement Mac菜单栏定制 自定义程度很高,看作者展示的案例,暂时没想出这样的好处(不过应用本身的编辑,确实也没啥意义)生命在于折腾吧! Thanks-Mirror   https://github.com/eryajf/Thanks-Mirror 整理记录各个包管理器,系统镜像,以及常用软件的好用镜像,Thanks Mirror。 Musicn   https://github.com/zonemeen/musicn 一个下载高品质音乐的命令行工具,音乐来源: 咪咕 Planet Minecraft A creative Minecraft community fansite sharing maps, minecraft skins, resource packs, servers, mods, and more. 里面有很多动人的故事 可能是世界上最大的Minecraft社区,从2010年至今 The Uncensored Library   https://www.uncensoredlibrary.com/en blockworks   https://www.blockworks.uk/ "Distinctive maps for Minecraft that have educated players and risen to the level of art" 游戏也可以让人有更高的实现,而不仅仅是沉迷其中,国外游戏厂商比我们做的好太多 Minecraft_Memory_Bypass_GUI   https://github.com/xingchuanzhen/Minecraft_Memory_Bypass_GUI 绕过Minecraft...

Albert Einstein Said Death Is Not An End Can Prompt You To Find The Meaning and Purpose Of Your Life

原文Link: https://quotationize.com/albert-einstein-said-death-not-end/ 产品随想注: 爱因斯坦对于死亡的观点,深深影响了乔布斯  ---------------- Albert Einstein said death is not an end if we can live on in our children and the younger generation is a line taken from the letter which he wrote to the widow of physicist Heike Kamerlingh Onnes in 1926. Besides death, he also talked about afterlife, immortality and soul. If you have read through my authentic collection of Albert Einstein thoughts on God and religion , you would know that he rejected the formal, dogmatic religion. Einstein did not believe in immortality of the individual. According to him, there is no such thing as, punishment for misdeeds or rewards for good behavior in any afterlife. For him, the so-called Theosophy and Spiritualism, was no more than a symptom of weakness and confusion. As Einstein explained that since our inner experiences consist of reproductions, and combinations of sensory impressions, the concept of a soul with...