跳至主要内容

巴菲特致股东信-1972年

 笔记:

  • 经营保险的思路是重视长期,不低价特别是不合理地低价抢保单
  • 获得一笔长达20年的贷款,利率仅8%

原文:


Link:
  • https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131103213
  • 备份:https://archive.ph/fjGyy 

the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Operating earnings of Berkshire Hathaway during 1972 amounted to a highly satisfactory 19.8% of beginning shareholders’ equity. Significant improvement was recorded in all of our major lines of business, but the most dramatic gains were in insurance underwriting profit. Due to an unusual convergence of favorable factors—diminishing auto accident frequency, moderating accident severity, and an absence of major catastrophes—underwriting profit margins achieved a level far above averages of the past or expectations of the future.

While we anticipate a modest decrease in operating earnings during 1973, it seems clear that our diversification moves of recent years have established a significantly higher base of normal earning power. Yourpresent management assumed policy control of the company in May, 1965.

Eight years later, our 1972 operating earnings of $11,116,256 represent a return many-fold higher than would have been produced had we continued to devote our resources entirely to the textile business. At the end of the 1964 fiscal year, shareholders’ equity totaled $22,138,753.Since that time, no additional equity capital has been introduced into the business, either through cash sale or through merger. On the contrary, some stock has been reacquired, reducing outstanding shares by 14%. The increase in book value per share from $19.46 at fiscal year-end 1964 to $69.72 at 1972 year-end amounts to about 16.5% compounded annually.

Our three major acquisitions of recent years have all worked out exceptionally well—from both the financial and human standpoints. In all three cases, the founders were major sellers andreceived significant proceeds in cash—and, in all three cases, the same individuals, Jack Ringwalt, Gene Abegg and Vic Raab, have continued to run the businesses with undiminished energy and imagination which have resulted in further improvement of the fine records previously established.

We will continue to search for logical extensions of our present operations, and also for new operations which will allow us to continue to employ our capital effectively.

Textile Operations

As predicted in last year’s annual report, the textile industry experienced a pickup in 1972. In recent years, Ken Chace and Ralph Rigby have developed an outstanding sales organization enjoying a growing reputation for service and reliability. Manufacturing capabilities have been restructured to complement our sales strengths.

Helped by the industry recovery, we experienced some payoff from these efforts in 1972.

Inventories were controlled, minimizing close-out losses in addition to minimizing capital requirements; product mix was greatly improved. While the general level of profitability of the

industry will always be the primary factor in determining the level of our textile earnings, we believe that our relative position within the industry has noticeably improved. The outlook for 1973 is good.

Insurance Underwriting

Our exceptional underwriting profits during 1972 in the large traditional area of our insurance business at National Indemnity present a paradox. They served to swell substantially total corporate profits for 1972, but the factors which produced such profits induced exceptional amounts of new competition at what we believe to be a non-compensatory level of rates. Overall, we probably would have retained better prospects for the next five years if profits had not risen so dramatically this year.

Substantial new competition was forecast in our annual report for last year and we experienced in 1972 the decline in premium volume that we stated such competition implied. Our belief is that industry underwriting profit margins will narrow substantially in 1973 or 1974 and, in time, this may produce an environment in which our historical growth can be resumed. Unfortunately, there is a lag between deterioration of underwriting results and tempering of competition. During this period we expect to continue to have negative volume comparisons in our traditional operation. Our seasoned management, headed by Jack Ringwalt and Phil Liesche, will continue to underwrite to produce a profit, although not at the level of 1972, and base our rates on longterm expectations rather than short-term hopes. Although this approach has meant dips in volume from time to time in the past, it has produced excellent long-term results.

Also as predicted in last year’s report, our reinsurance division experienced many of the same competitive factors in 1972. A multitude of new organizations entered what has historically been a rather small field, and rates were often cut substantially, and we believe unsoundly, particularly in the catastrophe area. The past year turned out to be unusually free of catastrophes and our underwriting experience was good.

George Young has built a substantial and profitable reinsurance operation in just a few years. In the longer term we plan to be a very major factor in the reinsurance field, but an immediate expansion of volume is not sensible against a background of deteriorating rates. In our view, underwriting exposures are greater than ever. When the loss potential inherent in such exposures becomes an actuality, repricing will take place which should give us a chance to expand significantly.

In the “home state” operation, our oldest and largest such company, Cornhusker Casualty Company, operating in Nebraska only, achieved good underwriting results. In the second full year, the home state marketing appeal has been proven with the attainment of volume on the order of one-third of that achieved by “old line” giants who have operated in the state for manydecades.

Our two smaller companies, in Minnesota and Texas, had unsatisfactory loss ratios on very small volume. The home state managements understand that underwriting profitably is the yardstick of

success and that operations can only be expanded significantly when it is clear that we are doing the right job in the underwriting area. Expense ratios at the new companies are also high, but that is to be expected when they are in the development stage.

John Ringwalt has done an excellent job of launching this operation, and plans to expand into at least one additional state during 1973. While there is much work yet to be done, the home state operation appears to have major long-range potential.

Last year it was reported that we had acquired Home and Automobile Insurance Company of Chicago. We felt good about the acquisition at the time, and we feel even better now. Led by Vic Raab, this company continued its excellent record in 1972. During 1973 we expect to enter the Florida (Dade County) and California (Los Angeles) markets with the same sort of specialized urban auto coverage which Home and Auto has practiced so successfully in Cook County. Vic has the managerial capacity to run a much larger operation. Our expectation is that Home and Auto will expand significantly within a few years.

Insurance Investment Results

We were most fortunate to experience dramatic gains in premium volume from 1969 to 1971 coincidental with virtually record-high interest rates. Large amounts of investable funds were thus received at a time when they could be put to highly advantageous use. Most of these funds were placed in tax-exempt bonds and our investment income, which has increased from $2,025,201 in 1969 to $6,755,242 in 1972, is subject to a low effective tax rate.

Our bond portfolio possesses unusually good call protection, and we will benefit for many years to come from the high average yield of the present portfolio. The lack of current premium growth, however, will moderate substantially the growth in investment income during the next several years.

Banking Operations

Our banking subsidiary, The Illinois Bank and Trust Co. of Rockford, maintained its position of industry leadership in profitability. After-tax earnings of 2.2% on average deposits in 1972 are the more remarkable when evaluated against such moderating factors as: (1) a mix of 50% time deposits heavily weighted toward consumer savings instruments, all paying the maximum rates permitted by law; (2) an unvaryingly strong liquid position and avoidance of money-market borrowings; (3) a loan policy which has produced a net charge-off ratio in the last two years of about 5% of that of the average commercial bank. This record is a direct tribute to the leadership of Gene Abegg and Bob Kline who run a bank where the owners and the depositors can both eat well and sleep well.

During 1972, interest paid to depositors was double the amount paid in 1969. We have aggressively sought consumer time deposits, but have not pushed for large “money market” certificates of deposit although, during the past several years, they have generally been a less

costly source of time funds.

During the past year, loans to our customers expanded approximately 38%. This is considerably more than indicated by the enclosed balance sheet which includes $10.9 million in short-term commercial paper in the 1971 loan total, but which has no such paper included at the end of 1972.

Our position as “Rockford’s Leading Bank” was enhanced during 1972. Present rate structures, a decrease in investable funds due to new Federal Reserve collection procedures, and a probable increase in already substantial non-federal taxes make it unlikely that Illinois National will be able to increase its earnings during 1973.

Financial

On March 15, 1973, Berkshire Hathaway borrowed $20 million at 8% from twenty institutional lenders. This loan is due March 1, 1993, with principal repayments beginning March 1, 1979.

From the proceeds, $9 million was used to repay our bank loan and the balance is being invested in insurance subsidiaries. Periodically, we expect that there will be opportunities to achieve significant expansion in our insurance business and we intend to have the financial resources available to maximize such opportunities.

Our subsidiaries in banking and insurance have major fiduciary responsibilities to their customers. In these operations we maintain capital strength far above industry norms, but still achieve a good level of profitability on such capital. We will continue to adhere to the former objective and make every effort to continue to maintain the latter.

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board March 16, 1973


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///// 推 薦 書 單 在 這 邊 ///// 1.《香港簡史》,高馬可,2021,蜂鳥。 2.《香港人之香港史 1841-1945》,蔡榮芳,2000,牛津大學出版社。 3.《穿梭太平洋︰金山夢、華人出洋與香港的形成》,冼玉儀,2019,中華書局。 4.《被遺忘的六日戰爭:1899年新界鄉民與英軍之戰》,夏思義 ,2014,中華書局。 5.《香港六七暴動始末》,程翔,2018,牛津大學。 6.《地下陣線:中共在香港的歷史》,陸恭蕙,2011,香港大學出版社。 7.《香港80年代民主運動口述歷史》,馬嶽 ,2012,香港城市大學。 8.《我是記者:六四印記:六四30》,2019,香港記者協會-人民不會忘記基金。 9.《胸懷祖國 : 香港「愛國左派」運動,趙永佳,呂大樂,容世誠,2014,牛津大學出版社。 10.《勾結共謀的殖民權力》,羅永生,2015 ,牛津大學出版社。 11.《殖民無間道》,羅永生,2017,牛津大學出版社。 12.《中國香港 : 文化與政治的視野》,強世功,2008,牛津大學出版社。 13.《中國天朝主義與香港》,陳冠中,2012,牛津大學出版社。 14.《變局下的徘徊 : 從戰後到後九七香港教會社關史論 》,邢福增,2018,印象文字。 15.《回歸人心——極權臨近的香港文化經濟學》,許寶強,2018,牛津大學出版社。 16.《香港, 鬱躁的家邦 : 本土觀點的香港源流史》,徐承恩,2019,左岸文化。 17.《彭定康英文自傳》,彭定康。 18.《許家屯香港回憶錄(上.下)》,許家屯,1993,聯經出版公司。 19.《大江東去——司徒華回憶錄》,司徒華,2011,牛津大學出版社。 20.《拱心石下——從政十八年》,吳靄儀,2018,牛津/啟思。 21.《相遇》,周保松,2008,牛津大學出版社。 22.《受苦與反抗:陳健民.獄中書簡》,陳健民,2022,聯經出版公司。 23.《破解香港風威權法治:傘後與反送中以來的民主運動》,黎恩灝,2021,新銳文創。 24.《特區選舉:制度與投票行為》,蔡子強,馬嶽,陳雋文,2021,香港城市大學。 25.《二十道陰影下的自由:香港新聞審查日常》,區家麟,2017,中文大學出版社。 26.《香港第一課》,梁啟智,2019,春山。 27.《管治香港:英國解密檔案的啟示》,李彭廣,...

初识协议

TCP 面向有连接,能够处理丢包,顺序乱掉+带宽利用与拥堵,因为某些环境至少7次收发,网络资源浪费,而TCP定义各种复杂规范,因此不利于视频会议(音频,视频的数据量既定)等场合使用  UDP 面向无连接,不关注是否收到,常用于分组数据较少,广播通信以及视频通信等领域 ARP:从分组数据包的IP地址中解析出物理地址(Mac地址)的一种协议  FTP 传输文件时建立两个连接,一个是传输连接,一个是控制连接

产品随想 | 周刊 第59期:中华人民共和国史

Products anti-anti-AD   https://github.com/Mosney/anti-anti-AD 为什么不应使用antiAD去广告列表,以及选择更多优秀的替代品 很多此类域 Diffusion Bee   https://github.com/divamgupta/diffusionbee-stable-diffusion-ui Diffusion Bee is the easiest way to run Stable Diffusion locally on your M1 Mac. 门槛好高... M1 Aloud   https://aloud.area120.google.com/ Aloud is part of Area 120, Google’s in-house incubator for new products and services. 除去现在的自动生成CC字幕外,探索直接将视频的音轨,变换为其它语言,Google牛逼! Citizenship Consciousness & Privacy 董乐山   https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-sg/董乐山 简介很短,但足以看到时代对他的残酷 《第三帝国的兴亡》 中华人民共和国史   https://cup.cuhk.edu.hk/chinesepress/promotion/prc_sample/index.htm 第一卷 断裂与延续──中华人民共和国的创建(1949-1952)(即将出版) 杨奎松 (估计审查,也没机会了) 第二卷 向社会主义过渡 ── 中国经济与社会的转型(1953-1955) 林蕴晖 第三卷 思考与选择 ── 从知识分子会议到反右派运动(1956-1957) 沈志华 第四卷 乌托邦运动──从大跃进到大饥荒(1958-1961) 林蕴晖 第五卷 历史的变局──从挽救危机到反修防修(1962-1965) 钱庠理 第六卷 「砸烂旧世界」──文化大革命的动乱与浩劫(1966-1968) 卜伟华 第七卷 新秩序和新冲突──从中共九大到林彪事件(1969-1971) (即将出版) 高华(作者去世,应该没有机会了) 第八卷 难以继续的「继续革命」 ──从批林到批邓(1972-1976...