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巴菲特致股东信-1977年

 笔记:

  • 纺织业利润不高,但坚持办下去,为了当地的一些就业(社会责任)
  • 管理层很不幸一再学到的一课:选择顺丰而非逆风产业环境
  • 开始购入更多高价值的企业股权


翻译:

  • 雪球:https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131542899
  • 备份:https://archive.ph/lZywK

原文:

Buffett’s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1977

巴菲特致股东的信 1977 年

Operating earnings in 1977 of $21,904,000, or $22.54 per share, were moderately better than anticipated a year ago. Of these earnings, $1.43 per share resulted from substantial realized capital gains by Blue Chip Stamps which, to the extent of our proportional interest in that company, are included in our operating earnings figure. Capital gains or losses realized directly by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or its insurance subsidiaries are not included in our calculation of operating earnings. While too much attention should not be paid to the figure for any single year, over the longer term the record regarding aggregate capital gains or losses obviously is of significance.

1977 年本公司的营业净利为 2,190 万 美元,每股约当 22.54 美元,表现较 年前的预期稍微好一点,在这些盈余 中,每股有1.43美元的盈余,系蓝筹 邮票大量实现的资本利得,本公司依 照投资比例认列投资收益所贡献,至 于伯克希尔本身及其保险子公司已实 现的资本利得或损失,则不列入营业 利益计算,建议大家不必太在意单一 期间的盈余数字,因为长期累积的资 本利得或损失才是真正的重点所在。

Textile operations came in well below forecast, while the results of the Illinois National Bank as well as the operating earnings attributable to our equity interest in Blue Chip Stamps were about as anticipated. However, insurance operations, led again by the truly outstanding results of Phil Liesche’s managerial group at National Indemnity Company, were even better than our optimistic expectations.

纺织事业的表现远低于预估,至于伊 利诺国家银行的成绩以及蓝筹邮票贡 献给我们的投资利益则大致如预期, 另外,由 Phil Liesche 领导的国家产 险保险业务的表现甚至比我们当初最 乐观的期望还要好。

Most companies define “record” earnings as a new high in earnings per share. Since businesses customarily add from year to year to their equity base, we find nothing particularly noteworthy in a management performance combining, say, a 10% increase in equity capital and a 5% increase in earnings per share. After all, even a totally dormant savings account will produce steadily rising interest earnings each year because of compounding.

通常公司会宣称每股盈余又创下历史 新高,然而由于公司的资本会随着盈 余的累积扩增,所以我们并不认为这 样的经营表现有什么大不了的,比如 说每年股本扩充 10%或是每股盈余成 长 5%等等,毕竟就算是静止不动的定 存帐户,由于复利的关系每年都可稳 定地产生同样的效果。

Except for special cases (for example, companies with unusual debt-equity ratios or those with important assets carried at unrealistic balance sheet values), we believe a more appropriate measure of managerial economic performance to be return on equity capital. In 1977 our operating earnings on beginning equity capital amounted to 19%, slightly better than last year and above both our own long-term average and that of American industry in aggregate. But, while our operating earnings per share were up 37% from the year before, our beginning capital was up 24%, making the

除非是特殊的情况(比如说负债比例 特别高或是帐上持有重大资产未予重 估),否则我们认为 “股东权益报酬 率”应该是衡量管理当局表现比较合 理的指针,1997 年我们期初股东权益 的报酬率约为 19%,这比去年同期稍 微好一点,但远高于本身过去长期以 及当年美国企业整体的平均数,所以 虽然我们每股的盈余成长了 37%,但 由于期初的资本也增加了 34%,这使 得我们实际的表现并没有想象中那么

gaininearningspershareconsiderablylessimpressive 好。

than it might appear at first glance.

We expect difficulty in matching our 1977 rate of return during the forthcoming year. Beginning equity capital is up 23% from a year ago, and we expect the trend of insurance underwriting profit margins to turn down well before the end of the year. Nevertheless, we expect a reasonably good year and our present estimate, subject to the usual caveats regarding the frailties of forecasts, is that operating earnings will improve somewhat on a per share basis during 1978.

我们预期未来年度将很难再达到 1977 年这样的报酬率水准,一方面是 因为期初资本又增加了 23%,一方面 我们预期保险核保利润率会在年底以 前开始反转,尽管如此,大家还是可 以期待丰收的一年,而我们现在的估 计是,虽然预测有其先天上的限制, 我认为每股营业利益在 1978 年应该 还有些许成长的空间。

Textile Operations

纺织事业

The textile business again had a very poor year in 1977. We have mistakenly predicted better results in each of the last two years. This may say something about our forecasting abilities, the nature of the textile industry, or both. Despite strenuous efforts, problems in marketing and manufacturing have persisted. Many difficulties experienced in the marketing area are due primarily to industry conditions, but some of the problems have been of our own making.

1977 年纺织事业的表现依旧低迷不 振,过去两年我们乐观的预期纷纷落 空,这或许也说明了我们预测能力的 薄弱,或是纺织产业的本质,尽管一 再地努力与挣扎,行销与制造的问题 依旧存在,虽然市场上面临的困境与 产业情势相关,但也有不少问题是我 们自己造成。

A few shareholders have questioned the wisdom of remaining in the textile business which, over the longer term, is unlikely to produce returns on capital comparable to those available in many other businesses. Our reasons are several: (1) Our mills in both New Bedford and Manchester are among the largest employers in each town, utilizing a labor force of high average age possessing relatively non-transferable skills. Our workers and unions have exhibited unusual understanding and effort in cooperating with management to achieve a cost structure and product mix which might allow us to maintain a viable operation. (2) Management also has been energetic and straightforward in its approach to our textile problems. In particular, Ken Chace’s efforts after the change in corporate control took place in 1965 generated capital from the textile division needed to finance the acquisition and expansion of our profitable insurance operation. (3) With hard work and some imagination regarding manufacturing and marketing configurations, it seems reasonable that at least modest profits in the textile division can be achieved in the future.

部份股东开始质疑我们是否应该继续 留在纺织产业,虽然就长期而言其投 资报酬率明显低于其它的投资,但我 们的理由有以下几个:(1)我们在纽贝 福及 Manchester 的工厂都是当地最 大的聘雇业者,员工的年龄偏高,缺 乏转换工作的能力,同时我们的员工 及其公会也已经尽其所能地与经营阶 层配合努力改善成本结构及产品组 合,以使我们的经营得以维持下去(2) 管理阶层也相当努力同时坦承面对产 业的问题,尤其是在 1965 年经营权易 主后,Ken Chace 依然尽力尽力地协 助我们把纺织部门产生稳定的资金流 入转到获利更加的保险事业投资与购 并之上(3)努力工作加上对制造与行 销组合的乐观预期,我们的纺织事业 在未来看起来应该可以维持一个起码 的利润空间。

Insurance Underwriting

保险事业

Our insurance operation continued to grow significantly in 1977. It was early in 1967 that we made our entry into this industry through the purchase of National Indemnity Company and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company (sister companies) for approximately $8.6 million. In that year their premium volume amounted to $22 million. In 1977 our aggregate insurance premium volume was $151 million. No additional shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock have been issued to achieve any of this growth.

我们的保险事业在 1977 年持续大幅 地成长,早在 1967 年我们以 860 万美 元购并国家产险及国家海上火险公司 (两者为姊妹公司)的方式进军保险 业,当年他们的保费收入大约为 2,200 万美元,时至今日,1977 年的 累积年保费收入已达 1.51 亿美元,必 须强调的是,在此期间,伯克希尔没 有再发行过任何一股新股以支应成 长。

Rather, this almost 600% increase has been achieved through large gains in National Indemnity’s traditional liability areas plus the starting of new companies (Cornhusker Casualty Company in 1970, Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company in 1971, Texas United Insurance Company in 1972, The Insurance Company of Iowa in 1973, and Kansas Fire and Casualty Company in late 1977), the purchase for cash of other insurance companies (Home and Automobile Insurance Company in 1971, Kerkling Reinsurance Corporation, now named Central Fire and Casualty Company, in 1976, and Cypress Insurance Company at yearend 1977), and finally through the marketing of additional products, most significantly reinsurance, within the National Indemnity Company corporate structure.

相反地,这 600%的成长几乎都是来自 于国家产险本身的传统业务的稳定成 长再加上新创立的公司(包含 1970 年 的 Cornhusker 产险、1971 年的 Lakeland 火险、1972 年的德州联合保 险、1973 年的爱荷华保险及 1977 年 的堪萨斯火险公司等),以购并方式买 下的(1971 年的家庭与汽车保险、 1976 年现已更名为中央火险的 Kerkling 再保险以及 1977 年的赛普 路斯保险公司),以及最后透过行销新 业务-主要以国家保险名下进行的再 保险业务所得。

In aggregate, the insurance business has worked out very well. But it hasn’t been a one-way street. Some major mistakes have been made during the decade, both in products and personnel. We experienced significant problems from (1) a surety operation initiated in 1969, (2) the 1973 expansion of Home and Automobile’s urban auto marketing into the Miami, Florida area, (3) a still unresolved aviation “fronting” arrangement, and (4) our Worker’s Compensation operation in California, which we believe retains an interesting potential upon completion of a reorganization now in progress. It is comforting to be in a business where some mistakes can be made and yet a quite satisfactory overall performance can be achieved. In a sense, this is the opposite case from our textile business where even very good management probably can average only modest results. One of the lessons your management has learned - and, unfortunately, sometimes re-learned - is the importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather

总的来说,保险事业的表现还算不错, 但情况并非全然如此,过去十年来, 我们也犯过一些大错,不论是在产品 或是人员方面,比如说我们在以下方 面就曾遇到重大的困难:(1)1969 年 推出的保证责任险(2)1973 年扩充佛 罗里达迈阿密地区的家庭及汽车保险 业务(3)目前尚未解决的航空”前 置”安排(4)我们在加州的劳工退休 金业务,我们相信这业务一旦改组完 成应该还是相当有潜力。保险这行业 虽然小错不断,但大致上还是可以获 得不错的成果,就某些方面而言,这 情况与纺织业刚好完全相反,管理阶 层相当优秀,但却只能获得微薄的利 润,各位的管理阶层所学到的一课, 很不幸一再学到的就是,选择顺风而 非逆风产业环境的重要性。

than headwinds.

In 1977 the winds in insurance underwriting were squarely behind us. Very large rate increases were effected throughout the industry in 1976 to offset the disastrous underwriting results of 1974 and 1975. But, because insurance policies typically are written for one-year periods, with pricing mistakes capable of correction only upon renewal, it was 1977 before the full impact was felt upon earnings of those earlier rate increases.

1977 年保险业核保的顺风不断地从 后方吹来,保费大幅度的调整在 1976 年正式生效后,适时地抵消 1974 年及 1975 年惨痛的核保记录,而由于保单 的签订通常以一年为期,所以定价的 修正通常必须等到换新约时,所以实 际上费率的上涨一直等到 1977 年才 充分反应在盈余之上。

The pendulum now is beginning to swing the other way. We estimate that costs involved in the insurance areas in which we operate rise at close to 1% per month. This is due to continuous monetary inflation affecting the cost of repairing humans and property, as well as “social inflation”, a broadening definition by society and juries of what is covered by insurance policies. Unless rates rise at a comparable 1% per month, underwriting profits must shrink. Recently the pace of rate increases has slowed dramatically, and it is our expectation that underwriting margins generally will be declining by the second half of the year.

可惜的是钟摆再度开始摆荡到另一方 向,我们预估保险理赔成本以每个月 1%的幅度增加,主要的原因除了持续 性的通货膨胀使得修复人体及财产的 成本不停上涨,另一方面社会通膨, 亦即社会及陪审团对于保单理赔范围 不断扩大解释的倾向,因此除非费率 每个月也能同步上涨 1%,否则核保利 益肯定会缩水,只是最近保费调涨的 速度明显趋缓,所以我们预期下半年 的核保利润空间将大幅缩减。

We must again give credit to Phil Liesche, greatly assisted by Roland Miller in Underwriting and Bill Lyons in Claims, for an extraordinary underwriting achievement in National Indemnity’s traditional auto and general liability business during 1977. Large volume gains have been accompanied by excellent underwriting margins following contraction or withdrawal by many competitors in the wake of the 1974-75 crisis period. These conditions will reverse before long. In the meantime, National Indemnity’s underwriting profitability has increased dramatically and, in addition, large sums have been made available for investment. As markets loosen and rates become inadequate, we again will face the challenge of philosophically accepting reduced volume. Unusual managerial discipline will be required, as it runs counter to normal institutional behavior to let the other fellow take away business - even at foolish prices.

讲到这里,我们必须再度将殊荣归予 Phil Liesche,在核保部门 Roland Miller 以及理赔部门 Bill Lyons 的 大力协助下,国家产险 1977 年在传统 的汽车及责任险业务方面又大放异 彩,保费收入不但大幅成长,相较于 其它同业不堪 1974-75 年的危机陆续 退出市场,其优异的核保利益更属难 得,国家产险的核保利益大幅地成长, 此外可供投资的资金亦迅速累积,只 可惜这样的情况维持不了多久,这些 业者又会再度卷土重来,随着市场紧 绷情势转为宽松,费率又将变得失控, 届时我们又必须回复过去冷静地接受 保费收入锐减的考验,严格的核保纪 律绝对必须维持,如此我们才能抗拒 直觉,眼睁睁地看着其它业者以疯狂 的价格抢走生意。

Our reinsurance department, managed by George Young, improved its underwriting performance during 1977. Although the combined ratio (see definition on page 12)

1977 年由 George Young 管理的再保 险部门改善了其核保的绩效,虽然高 达 107.1 的综合比率不算理想(相关


of 107.1 was unsatisfactory, its trend was downward throughout the year. In addition, reinsurance generates unusually high funds for investment as a percentage of premium volume.

定义请参阅第 12 页),但至少趋势是 向下,此外再保险的保费收入依然贡 献大量的资金以供我们进行投资。

At Home and Auto, John Seward continued to make progress on all fronts. John was a battlefield promotion several years ago when Home and Auto’s underwriting was awash in red ink and the company faced possible extinction. Under his management it currently is sound, profitable, and growing.

至于 John Seward 领导的家庭与汽车 保险在各个方面都有重大进展,几年 前当该公司因核保大幅亏损,面临倒 闭危机时,John 跳上火线,在他的管 理之下,公司的营运渐上轨道。

John Ringwalt’s homestate operation now consists of five companies, with Kansas Fire and Casualty Company becoming operational late in 1977 under the direction of Floyd Taylor. The homestate companies had net premium volume of $23 million, up from $5.5 million just three years ago. All four companies that operated throughout the year achieved combined ratios below 100, with Cornhusker Casualty Company, at 93.8, the leader. In addition to actively supervising the other four homestate operations, John Ringwalt manages the operations of Cornhusker which has recorded combined ratios below 100 in six of its seven full years of existence and, from a standing start in 1970, has grown to be one of the leading insurance companies operating in Nebraska utilizing the conventional independent agency system. Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company, managed by Jim Stodolka, was the winner of the Chairman’s Cup in 1977 for achieving the lowest loss ratio among the homestate companies. All in all, the homestate operation continues to make excellent progress.

John Ringwalt 负责的 Homestate 业 务旗下主要包含五家公司,其中堪萨 斯火险在 Floyd Taylor 筹备下于 1977 年底正式营运,Homestate 1977 年的保费净收入达到 2,300 万美元, 三年前不过只有 550 万美元,其余四 家的年度综合比率都低于 100,其中 Cornhusker 甚至只有 93.8,John 在 努力管理其它四家公司的同时,更让 Cornhusker 过去七年有六年的综合 比率低于 100,从 1970 年正式营运以 来,该公司已顺利成为内布拉斯加州 传统独立经纪系统的领导业者,至于 由 Jim Stodolka 带领的 Lakeland 火 险则荣获 1977 年主席杯的头衔,因为 去年该公司的综合比率最低,总的来 说,Homestate 集团的营运在去年大 有进展。

The newest addition to our insurance group is Cypress Insurance Company of South Pasadena, California. This Worker’s Compensation insurer was purchased for cash in the final days of 1977 and, therefore, its approximate $12.5 million of volume for that year was not included in our results. Cypress and National Indemnity’s present California Worker’s Compensation operation will not be combined, but will operate independently utilizing somewhat different marketing strategies. Milt Thornton, President of Cypress since 1968, runs a first-class operation for policyholders, agents, employees and owners alike. We look forward to working with him.

我们旗下保险事业最新加入的成员是 位于加州的赛普路斯保险,至于劳工 退休金保险则因为是在 1977 年底以 现金买下,所以其 1,250 万美元的保 费收入并未列入我们当年的营运记 录,赛普路斯与国家产险现有的劳工 退休金保险业务不会合并,而会采用 不同的行销策略各自独立经营,赛普 路斯现任总裁 Milt Thornton,在保 户、业务员、员工及股东方面的营运 管理皆属一流,对于能与他一起共事, 我们相当期待。


Insurance companies offer standardized policies which can be copied by anyone. Their only products are promises. It is not difficult to be licensed, and rates are an open book. There are no important advantages from trademarks, patents, location, corporate longevity, raw material sources, etc., and very little consumer differentiation to produce insulation from competition. It is commonplace, in corporate annual reports, to stress the difference that people make. Sometimes this is true and sometimes it isn’t. But there is no question that the nature of the insurance business magnifies the effect which individual managers have on company performance. We are very fortunate to have the group of managers that are associated with us.

保险公司提供的制式保单很容易为其 它同业所模仿,他们唯一的产品就是 承诺,保险执照不难取得,而费率也 是公开的,这行业商标、专利、地点、 企业年资、原物料等都不重要,消费 者对于产品也很难产生特别的偏好, 在企业的年报中,常常看到有人强调 自己不同于其它同业的特殊之处,有 时这样的说法有道理,有时没什么道 理,但不可否认的是,保险事业的本 质使得经理人的表现,对于公司绩效 的影响具有举足轻重的地位,很幸运 的是与我们共事的是一群优秀的经理 人。

Insurance Investments 保险事业的投资

During the past two years insurance investments at cost (excluding the investment in our affiliate, Blue Chip Stamps) have grown from $134.6 million to $252.8 million. Growth in insurance reserves, produced by our large gain in premium volume, plus retained earnings, have accounted for this increase in marketable securities. In turn, net investment income of the Insurance Group has improved from $8.4 million pre-tax in 1975 to $12.3 million pre-tax in 1977.

过去两年我们保险事业投入的资金成 本(扣除对关系企业蓝筹邮票的投资) 已从原先的 1.346 亿美元成长到 2.528 亿美元,保险准备的成长,主 要是由于保费收入的大幅增加,加上 保留的盈余,是我们投资部位之所以 大幅增加的原因,也因此,我们整体 保险事业因为投资而增加的净收益也 由 1975 年税前 840 万美元的利益成长 到 1977 年的 1,230 万美元。

In addition to this income from dividends and interest, we realized capital gains of $6.9 million before tax, about one-quarter from bonds and the balance from stocks. Our unrealized gain in stocks at yearend 1977 was approximately $74 million but this figure, like any other figure of a single date (we had an unrealized loss of $17 million at the end of 1974), should not be taken too seriously. Most of our large stock positions are going to be held for many years and the scorecard on our investment decisions will be provided by business results over that period, and not by prices on any given day. Just as it would be foolish to focus unduly on short-term prospects when acquiring an entire company, we think it equally unsound to become mesmerized by prospective near term earnings or recent trends in earnings when purchasing small pieces of a company; i.e., marketable common stocks.

除了股利与利息收入之外,我们还实 现了税前 690 万美元的资本利得,四 分之一来自债券,剩下的则来自股票, 至于 1977 年年底未实现的资本利得 大约在 7,400 万美元之谱,对于这个 数字,就像任何单一日期的数字, (1974 年底帐上有 1,700 万美元的未 实现损失)大家不必看得太认真,因为 我们持股部位比较大的投资,往往要 持有很长一段时间,所以我们的投资 绩效依据的是这些被投资公司在这段 期间的经营表现,而不是特定时期的 股票价格,就像我们认为买下一家公 司却只关心他的短期状况是件很傻的 事,同样地持有公司部份所有权-也就 是股票,我们认为只关心短期盈余或 者是盈余短暂的变动也不应该。

A little digression illustrating this point may be 离题一下,有一点很有趣足以说明上 interesting. Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates and 述情况,伯克希尔纺纱与 Hathaway


Hathaway Manufacturing were merged in 1955 to form Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In 1948, on a pro forma combined basis, they had earnings after tax of almost $18 million and employed 10,000 people at a dozen large mills throughout New England. In the business world of that period they were an economic powerhouse. For example, in that same year earnings of IBM were $28 million (now $2.7 billion), Safeway Stores, $10 million, Minnesota Mining, $13 million, and Time, Inc., $9 million. But, in the decade following the 1955 merger aggregate sales of $595 million produced an aggregate loss for Berkshire Hathaway of $10 million. By 1964 the operation had been reduced to two mills and net worth had shrunk to $22 million, from $53 million at the time of the merger. So much for single year snapshots as adequate portrayals of a business.

工业是在 1955 年合并成为伯克希尔 Hathaway 公司的,再将时间往回推到 1948 年,在拟制合并的基础下,当年 他们合计税前盈余达到 1,800 万美 元,旗下拥有十个遍布新英格兰地区 的工厂,员工人数一万人,在当时的 环境,他们算是经济成长的重要动力 之一,因为 IBM 在同一年度的盈余也 不过 2,800 万美元(现在的年获利达 到 27 亿美元),另外 Safeway 商店 1,000 万、3M 只有 1,300 万而时代杂 志则为 900 万,然而在双方合并后的 十年内,累计营收虽然有5.95亿,但 结算亏损却达到 1,000 万美元,时至 1964 年,公司的营运仅剩两家工厂, 净值更从合并时的 5,300 万美元大幅 缩减至 2,200 万美元,所以我们可以 这样说,单一年度所透露出公司营运 的景况实在是极其有限。

We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety. We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and competent people, and (4) available at a very attractive price. We ordinarily make no attempt to buy equities for anticipated favorable stock price behavior in the short term. In fact, if their business experience continues to satisfy us, we welcome lower market prices of stocks we own as an opportunity to acquire even more of a good thing at a better price.

我们投资股票的选择方式与买进整家 企业的模式很相近,我们想要的企业 必须是(1)我们可以了解的行业(2)具 有长期竞争力(3)由才德兼具的人士 所经营(4)吸引人的价格,我们从来不 试着去买进一些短期股价预期有所表 现的股票,事实上,如果其企业的表 现符合我们的预期,我们反而希望他 们的股价不要太高,如此我们才有机 会以更理想的价格买进更多的股权。

Our experience has been that pro-rata portions of truly outstanding businesses sometimes sell in the securities markets at very large discounts from the prices they would command in negotiated transactions involving entire companies. Consequently, bargains in business ownership, which simply are not available directly through corporate acquisition, can be obtained indirectly through stock ownership. When prices are appropriate, we are willing to take very large positions in selected companies, not with any intention of taking control and not foreseeing sell-out or merger, but with the expectation that excellent business results by corporations will translate over the long term into

我们过去的经验显示,一家好公司部 份所有权的价格,常常要比协议谈判 买下整家要来得便宜许多,也因此想 要拥有价廉物美的企业所有权,直接 购并的方式往往不可得,还不如透过 间接拥有股权的方式来达到目的,当 价格合理,我们很愿意在某些特定的 公司身上持有大量的股权,这样做不 是为了要取得控制权,也不是为了将 来再转卖出或是进行购并,而是期望 企业本身能有好的表现,进而转化成 企业长期的价值以及丰厚的股利收 入,不论是少数股权或是多数股权皆

correspondingly excellent market value and dividend 是如此。

results for owners, minority as well as majority.

Such investments initially may have negligible impact on our operating earnings. For example, we invested $10.9 million in Capital Cities Communications during 1977. Earnings attributable to the shares we purchased totaled about $1.3 million last year. But only the cash dividend, which currently provides $40,000 annually, is reflected in our operating earnings figure.

这类的投资初期对于我们的经营利益 的助益或许不大,举例来说,1977 年 我们投资了 1,090 万美元在资本城通 讯公司之上,去年依照持股比例应可 分得的盈余约为 130 万美元,但实在 反应在我们财务报表上的却只有区区 4 万美元的现金股利。

Capital Cities possesses both extraordinary properties and extraordinary management. And these management skills extend equally to operations and employment of corporate capital. To purchase, directly, properties such as Capital Cities owns would cost in the area of twice our cost of purchase via the stock market, and direct ownership would offer no important advantages to us. While control would give us the opportunity - and the responsibility - to manage operations and corporate resources, we would not be able to provide management in either of those respects equal to that now in place. In effect, we can obtain a better management result through non-control than control. This is an unorthodox view, but one we believe to be sound.

资本城拥有优良的资产与优异的管理
阶层,而这些管理技能同样也延伸至
营运面及资金管理面,想要直接买下
资本城所要花费的成本可能是两倍于
间接透过股票市场投资,更何况直接
拥有权对我们并没有多大的好处,控
制权虽然让我们拥有机会,但同样也
带来责任去管理企业的营运及资源,
我们根本就没有能力提供现有管理阶
层关于这些方面额外任何的助益,事
实上,与其管还不如不管,更能得到
好的结果,这样的观念或许很反常,
但却是我们认为比较合适的。

Banking

银行业

In 1977 the Illinois National Bank continued to achieve a rate of earnings on assets about three times that of most large banks. As usual, this record was achieved while the bank paid maximum rates to savers and maintained an asset position combining low risk and exceptional liquidity. Gene Abegg formed the bank in 1931 with $250,000. In its first full year of operation, earnings amounted to $8,782. Since that time, no new capital has been contributed to the bank; on the contrary, since our purchase in 1969, dividends of $20 million have been paid. Earnings in 1977 amounted to $3.6 million, more than achieved by many banks two or three times its size.

1977 年伊利诺国家银行的资产报酬 率约为其它规模较大同业的三倍,一 如往常,这样的成绩,还搭配给予存 户最优惠的利率,同时维持风险最低 流动性最高的资产组合,Gene Abegg 在 1931 年以 25 万美元成立这家银行, 在第一个完整的营业年度,盈余就达 到 8,782 美元,从那时候开始,银行 就没有再办理任何一次增资,相反地, 当我们在 1969 年买下该公司时,马上 就领到了 2,000 万美元的现金股利, 1977 年的盈余更达到 360 万美元,甚 至比规模大他两三倍的银行同业还 多。

Late last year Gene, now 80 and still running a banking operation without peer, asked that a successor be brought in. Accordingly, Peter Jeffrey, formerly President and Chief Executive Officer of American National Bank of Omaha, has joined the Illinois National Bank effective March 1st as President and Chief

去年现年 80 岁依然一马当先专注于 银行营运的 Gene,要求新的接任者接 手,因此前奥玛哈美国国家银行的总 裁 Peter Jeffrey 于 3/1 正式加入伊 利诺国家银行担任新总裁。


Executive Officer.
Blue Chip Stamps

蓝筹邮票

Gene continues in good health as Chairman. We expect a continued successful operation at Rockford’s leading bank.

老当益壮的 Gene 依然担任董事长,我 们预期该银行仍将成为 Rockford 地 区首区一指的银行 (伊利诺州城市)。

We again increased our equity interest in Blue Chip Stamps, and owned approximately 36 1/2% at the end of 1977. Blue Chip had a fine year, earning approximately $12.9 million from operations and, in addition, had realized securities gains of $4.1 million.

我们再度增加对蓝筹邮票的持股权 益,截至1977年底,持有的股权比例 大约是 36.5%,蓝筹邮票去年的表现 相当不错,营业利益达到 1,290 万美 元,此外还有 410 万的已实现资本利 得。

Both Wesco Financial Corp., an 80% owned subsidiary of Blue Chip Stamps, managed by Louis Vincenti, and See’s Candies, a 99% owned subsidiary, managed by Chuck Huggins, made good progress in 1977. Since See’s was purchased by Blue Chip Stamps at the beginning of 1972, pre-tax operating earnings have grown from $4.2 million to $12.6 million with little additional capital investment. See’s achieved this record while operating in an industry experiencing practically no unit growth. Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. may obtain the annual report of Blue Chip Stamps by requesting it from Mr. Robert H. Bird, Blue Chip Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040.

蓝筹邮票持有 80%股权的 Wesco 金融 公司(由 Louis Vincenti 所管理)及持 有 99%股权的子公司喜斯糖果(由 Chuck Huggins 所管理)在 1977 年都 有重大进展,自从喜斯糖果在 1972 年被蓝筹邮票所买下后,就没有挹注 任何额外的资本,其税前盈余从 420 万美元成长到 1,260 万美元,尤其难 得的是喜斯所处的产业环境,几乎没 有成长,若有需要伯克希尔的股东可 向 Mr. Robert(地址加州洛杉矶 5801 South Eastern Avenue)索取蓝筹邮票 的年报。



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原始文章目录 张鸣:皇权不确定性下的统治术——传统中国官场机会主义溯源   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/68897.html 张鸣:从科举制到市场经济转型——官本位的源流及滥觞   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/59273.html 张鸣:权力边界何在,实话空间几许?——论中国政治传统中的权力与真理关系   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/67054.html Insight: 中国自秦汉以来一直是官僚化的帝制结构,虽然皇帝最终要凭借官僚这个中介才能统治国家,但官员的权力来源和合法性依据都是皇权。官僚机器只是帝制的“车轮”。所以,皇帝要怎么样,官员只要迎合,就能获利。只有在皇帝明显违反常识道理、造成重大灾祸之时,官员才可能凭借儒家伦理对皇帝提出批评。理性选择的结果使得官员更多地趋向于顺从皇帝。 ——符合历史以来的感知 中国尽管有两千多年官僚制的传统,但守规矩、遵法制、走程序的现代理性官僚制度却一直都没有建立起来。考试取官的确是理性官僚制的一个重要因素,但中国古代官僚制只是万里长征走完了第一步,然后就再也不走了。隋唐科举制建立的初衷也并非建设官僚体系,而是防止贵族垄断官职,强化君权。科举制度越来越严密,选拔出来的人才也愈发精英化。但是,官僚的行为却没有程式化和规法化。官员的个人行为偏好往往直接影响一地的发展。 ——如何再往前走一步,可以看看新加坡 官员的行为模式往往以皇帝的喜好为风向标。一般来说,皇帝喜欢什么,一个朝代就兴什么。汉初皇帝喜欢黄老,臣子们就清静无为;东汉皇帝喜欢儒生,则臣子们多为经学家;唐初皇帝喜人上书言事,则多诤谏之徒;到晚唐,皇帝喜欢佛教了,则多礼佛之士;清代嘉庆之后,皇帝提倡节俭,带头穿补丁衣服,则满朝文武衣服上都打了补丁,有的补丁比衣服本身还贵。 ——Interesting 皇帝行为的不确定性,势必导致官员行为无法程序化、规范化,而皇帝行为的不确定往往是由统治术决定的,属刻意为之。多数王朝都外儒内法,崇尚权术,甚至迷信权术。秦始皇和丞相李斯之间,有过一个小故事。李斯随从车马过盛,很是招摇,皇帝看了不高兴。随行的宦官就把这事告诉了李斯,李斯于是轻车简从,低调起来。秦始皇马上知道身边有人泄密,又审不出来,于是把当时在身边的人都杀...

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产品随想 | 读《中国是部金融史》:第三章至第五章

  第三章 犯我货币者,虽强必诛(汉高祖一汉武帝) 刘邦大概没有想到,他的土地政策奠定了此后两千年的社会结构:皇帝是社会最高层,具有至高无上的权力;皇帝之下是三公九即等封建官僚,拿皇帝的钱,逐级管理小农;最底层是万千小农,他们对帝国纳税,用自己的血汗钱养活帝王与封建官僚。此后,中国封建社会结构始终没有摆脱“皇权一封建官僚一小农”这个三位一体的窠臼。 既然消灭了异姓王,正常思维应该是仿效秦始皇强化郡县制,但是这位平民皇帝选择了…条谁也想不到的道路,他分封自己的兄弟子侄为王,并与诸王约定,此后非我子孙称王,天下人都可以杀了他(非刘氏而王者,天下共击之)。刘邦亲眼目睹了秦帝困的分崩离析,危急时刻无人愿意支撑起破败的帝国。华竟,官僚靠薪水吃饭, 就算贪污的本事很大,也没有理由维护别人的一姓天下。 如果没有血浓于水的同姓诸侯王,汉帝国将来同样无法应对真正的危机。事实证明,分封刘氏诸王是对的,如果没有刘邦留下来的同姓诸侯,恐怕汉朝早就得跟着皇后吕雉姓“吕”了。 人们习惯于将刘邦的皇后吕雉称呼为“吕后〞,这是中国古代历史上第一位临朝称制的太后,另外两位要等到盛唐和晚清才能在本书中出镜,三位女强人都是中国货币史上浓墨重彩的人物。 然而,从吕雉开始,仅仅不到一个世纪, 破败的汉帝国就一跃变为当时世界上最强盛的国家,直接把打遍天下无敌手的匈奴骑兵赶到了西欧,让罗马帝国受尽了欺凌。吕后末年,西汉单个农业劳动力的原粮产量已经突破了三干四百斤,这不但是西欧一干五百年后的劳动生产率,也远高于1973年中四的劳动生产率(二千二百四十斤)。应该说,中西文明争霸就是从汉帝国驱赶匈奴开始的,在第一轮交锋中,西欧完败。 ──原来西汉能超过1978年,厉害 吕雉坚决执行了一项前无古人(后有来者)的税收政策—“十五而税一”,换算一下,吕雉时代庶人个人收入所得税税率为 6.6%,而且,没有累进税率。 《二年律令》彻底改变了中国历史的发展轨迹,秦人以军功授田,刘邦以服兵役为代价授田,只有到了吕雉才真正实现了全困范用的“均田“。这是中国历史上第一次以法律形式明确了土地私有制度,每一个最普通的庶人都获得了土地,整个社会实现了孟子的“百亩之田、五亩之宅”理想。这是无数先贤追求的大同世界梦想一“耕者有其田”,请注意,我没有说这是“耕者有其田"的雏形,而是实实在在的“耕者有其田"。 ──对汉朝,充满敬...

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高大上的建筑竞赛效果图中的素材是如何收集的回答,感谢知乎 Vincent Ku 以下是之前搜寻过的素材网站,应该这些够用了 http:// skalgubbar.se/ http:// skalgubbrasil.tumblr.com / http://www. immediateentourage.com/ http://www. gobotree.com/ http://www. mrcutout.com/ http://www. cutoutlife.com/ http://www. nonscandinavia.com/ http://www. escalalatina.com/ http://www. mayang.com/textures/ind ex.htm http://www. textures.com/ ===== 感谢知友 @SJTUboy 补充 http:// maps.stamen.com/# watercolor/12/37.7706/-122.3782 http:// maps.stamen.com/m2i/# toner-background/2000:2000/10/31.1674/121.6063 作者:Vincent Ku 链接:https://www.zhihu.com/question/31584353/answer/73642305 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。