跳至主要内容

巴芒演义-自由现金流

 涉及人物不仅巴芒:

  • 格雷厄姆、巴鲁克、凯恩斯、费雪、巴菲特、芒格、施洛斯、索普、格罗斯、米尔肯、林奇、格林布拉特、博格……

核心:

  • 远离杠杆,不要做空
  • 低成本的长期资金
  • 自由现金流
  • 资本投资能力
  • 寻找优秀的人,和优质企业一起成长
  • 复利的力量(8%,12%,16%,在几十年时间维度看,差别非常大)
  • 好企业,一起成长,带来惊喜;烂企业,带来惊吓

格雷厄姆:

  • 烟蒂股
  • 《证券分析》──专业投资者的圣经,但里面有些东西,都已经过时了;
  • 思想遗产:
    • (1)烟蒂股投资主要传人是施洛斯。
    • (2)说不清楚的盖可保险投资,其实是优秀企业。
    • (3)指数投资。晚年否定证券分析(收益没法覆盖研究成本),给出了类似自行构建低估值指数的量化选股方法。

巴菲特:

  • 超低成本资金,甚至是负成本资金
  • 价值投资:需要长期性质的资本支持;快进快出的钱,不合适
  • 现金流
  • 最有参考价值:
  • 没啥参考价值:2000年之后,原因是钱太多,无法继续秘密低价买入
  • 巴菲特不是为了赚钱,是真正的在享受这个过程,不奢靡,捐赠回社会
  • 股票高估时,辅助合理的曲线避税方法,低成本退出

芒格:

  • 律师豪华团队
  • 人脉
  • 声誉
  • 芒格:享受生活
  • 对企业不要进行过于乐观的预期(芒格关于可口可乐业绩的猜测,偏离很多)
  • 对巴菲特的影响:思想、决策、人脉、律师

彼得林奇:

  • 投资生涯只有13年,因为牛市助推,运气与实力占比,需考量
  • 细致的调研,对于个人精力占用,非常多(周末回家记不住女儿名字,却能记住一大片股票代码)

给的一些投资建议:

  • 低成本的指数基金(格雷厄姆、巴菲特,都推荐)
  • 烟蒂模式(不大适用了,且和烂人打交道,太费劲)
华盛顿邮报:
  • 凯瑟琳格雷厄姆:最有权势的女人

烂人:

  • 蔡至勇:虽然明星经理,但人品很差,我等反面





目录:

推 荐 序 在严肃的历史中潇洒穿行 /
自 序 《巴芒演义》的三重价值 /
引 子 /
第 一 回 受磨难获得奖学金 本杰明步入华尔街 /
第 二 回 格雷厄姆小试牛刀 设立基金志得意满 /
第 三 回 代客理财风生水起 投资课程顺势推出 /
第 四 回 巴鲁克逃顶写传奇 大崩溃突袭显神威 /
第 五 回 重捡烟蒂起死回生 宗师理论日臻成型 /
第 六 回 投资奇才走入课堂 烟蒂兵团初具规模 /
第 七 回 施洛斯埋头捡垃圾 能力圈凸显大智慧 /
第 八 回 烟蒂照样与时俱进 标准需随现实微调 /
第 九 回 巴菲特初窥保险业 戴维森倾囊传秘籍 /
第 十 回 高额回报知行不一 疑心种子悄悄萌芽 /
第 十一 回 天外有天学会避税 内幕消息运用分歧 /
第 十二 回 巴菲特拒任接班人 奥马哈传奇初起步 /
第 十三 回 烟蒂也须天时地利 控制投资兑现价值 /
第 十四 回 捡烟蒂树最佳模板 不小心成过街老鼠 /
第 十五 回 冲动收购伯克希尔 损失超过千亿美元 /
第 十六 回 不甘心试图找出路 犯糊涂再次走臭棋 /
第 十七 回 巴菲特嘲讽蔡至勇 华尔街追星中国佬 /
第 十八 回 风口飞猪现出原形 东山再起创下奇迹 /
第 十九 回 耗尽人品黯然离开 慈善八卦聊度余生 /
第 二十 回 市场风格难以适应 解散基金图个清静 /
第二十一回 股神赌神偶然相逢 投资赌博原理互通 /
第二十二回 赌神索普创造传奇 香农凯利协防有功 /
第二十三回 凯利公式暗藏隐患 投资奥秘各有不同 /
第二十四回 米尔肯入狱坑索普 神业绩变招疑乔尔 /
第二十五回 压力促生神奇公式 格老否定证券分析 /
第二十六回 巴菲特专注搭讲坛 懂平衡芒格双丰收 /
第二十七回 芒格推动思想进化 喜诗展示优质魅力 /
第二十八回 世家子弟广结人脉 圈子贡献赚钱良机 /
第二十九回 巴菲特身陷欺诈案 大律师背书保清白 /
第 三十 回 收购报业四面楚歌 步步申诉向死而生 /
第三十一回 家庭妇女被迫掌舵 新闻女王两难选择 /
第三十二回 关键战役邮报登顶 长期持股高额回报 /
第三十三回 盖可保险绝地逢生 伯克希尔如虎添翼 /
第三十四回 乐观出价通用再保 遭受重创公开忏悔 /
第三十五回 曲线减持暗动心机 偷鸡不成险蚀把米 /
第三十六回 可口可乐双重错误 通用再保持续失血 /
第三十七回 蹚浑水拯救所罗门 看笑话围观赌金者 /
第三十八回 指导思想与时俱进 投资首选指数基金 /
第三十九回 指数基金英雄丰碑 思想源泉宏观鼻祖 /
第 四十 回 先锋集团一鸣惊人 伯克希尔渐显颓势 /
第四十一回 金钱束缚降低回报 投资正道共有四条 /
第四十二回 农地案例投资真谛 别瞅傻子坚持瞅地 /
附 录A 大师们的收益率 /
附 录B 美元价值速算 /
参 考 资 料 /
致 谢 /

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