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产品随想 | 陪读 | 罗永浩:再创业可能后悔,不再创业百分之百后悔


产品随想 | 碎碎念

漂亮得不像实力派,当年给我留下非常深印象的广告词
用1997年的这段话,祝福老罗:

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“Here’s to the crazy ones.

The misfits. 

The rebels.

The troublemakers.

The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently.

They’re not fond of rules.

And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can praise them, disagree with them, quote them, disbelieve them, glorify or vilify them.

About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They invent. They imagine. They heal. 

They explore. They create. They inspire.

They push the human race forward.

Maybe they have to be crazy.

How else can you stare at an empty canvas and see a work of art?

Or sit in silence and hear a song that’s never been written?

Or gaze at a red planet and see a laboratory on wheels?

We make tools for these kinds of people.

While some see them as the crazy ones, we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.”

产品随想 | 陪读

  • 这三年,我和几个合伙人一直聊下来,最后只有两个方向是我们真正感兴趣,愿意投入后半辈子去做的,一个是电动汽车,另一个是下一代的计算平台。
    ——产品随想:手机能成为下一代平台是因为,原本人人都需要1个移动电话保持与人联系,刚好计算芯片/计算能力+软件系统的更新,让移动电话成了移动计算机。
    那AR成为下一代平台的逻辑是:1)它好到让用户愿意多随身带1个设备(看Apple Watch就知道,要让足够多人做到这点并不容易);2)让原本已有的手机,再承载住AR计算的能力(显然是更可能的路径);3)不聚焦于移动,而聚焦于办公场所,家里,让这些地方,新增1台计算设备(可能这台设备的作用,仅仅是AR沉浸)

  • 三大游戏主机的全球年销量是5000万部左右,就算 VR 多了些社交属性,能比三大主机多卖几倍,一年卖到一两亿部应该也就到头了。如果一年卖一两亿部,那它可能是史上最畅销的游戏机,但一定不是计算平台。全世界同时持有量几十亿,每年能卖上十来亿部的设备,才能叫下一代计算平台。我们相信 AR 就是下一代计算平台,当然,这在科技界很大程度上也是共识了,并不是我们的创见。
    ——市场容量的估算,创始产品经理

  • 我们自己是做过上千人的规模团队开发的,AR 这件事巨大的软硬件工程量硬梆梆地摆在那里,至少也要几百到上千人左右的规模开发三五年以上,才能做出一个消费级别的东西。

  • AR 这件事如果只需要一两年就能大规模商业化,那科技巨头们很快就会都冲进来,创业公司就很难有机会了。那我们会压力特别大,就像当年做手机,时机晚了,处处都被动。如果只需要一个百八十人的优秀团队就能搞定,那我们同样会压力很大,毕竟全世界搞这个的小团队至少有好几十家,而且有的团队已经启动很多年了。作为一个综合资源比上严重不足、比下严重有余的团队,五年左右的时间窗口和几千个人年的工程量,对我们来说刚好是比较合适的。
    ——老罗分析在理

  • 当年锤子科技创业的时候,我每天在网上说那么多关于产品的屁话,也是因为那时候资源太少,不得不额外做些吸引关注和造声势的工作。
    ——哈哈,免费的市场营销,很多家都这么做过

  • 具体地说,我们的硬件团队会每年研发一款工程机,原则上不对外发售,仅限内部开发使用,直到商业化售卖条件和整体环境大致成熟才开售。因为目前整个行业的硬件水准还没法大规模商业化成功,比如说功耗,发热,重量,续航时间等等,离普通消费者能接受、能消费,还差得远。那些AR公司现在就强行发售产品的,一定是卖一部亏一部。行业里普遍的估计是,商业化条件基本成熟的时间点,大概会在五年左右。
    ——希望5年之后,能看到老罗的新产品,期待!

  • 有些团队卖产品是因为对市场条件完全的误判;有些团队卖产品是为了验证一些他们拿不准的东西;有些团队卖产品是为了给投资人看,给媒体看,尽量扩大影响力来获得资源继续发展。就像当年我们锤子科技创业第一年的时候,为什么要发布一个完成度极差的,几乎没法用的手机系统呢?我们就是靠着它融来了第二轮的资金。
    ——很真诚的分享,很多时候工程原型不是黑给用户用的,而是拿来融资、获取信心、获取人才加盟的

  • 前一代的中国一线科技大佬,除了马化腾老师我没见过,其他的我基本都见过了,我觉得他们可能对 OS 普遍都是这个看法。但是比他们晚一辈的科技大佬们,聊起下一代平台的 OS,虽然未必相信能做成这件事的就是我的团队,但基本上不会怀疑中国人能不能做 OS。这也是时代进步,带来的一个有意思的变化吧。
    ——老罗对马化腾,倒是很尊敬,称呼“老师”,估计后续要拿腾讯钱,哈哈哈

  • 该做还是要做的,反正大家都是就活这么一辈子,如果有机会,当然还是想做些了不起的事。平台战争这样的事,一辈子能亲自参与一次,就很幸运了。当然,我们也不会为了自己的理想,拿投资人的钱和团队的青春血汗胡来,所以我们还有高度可行的 B 计划:如果到那个时间点产品全部做好了,但真打起来后还是拼不过资源,没法独立成事儿,那我们也不介意被大公司投资、控股或收购。

  • 比如 AR 和 VR 软件的代码复用率还是很高的,我们为 AR 所做的某些应用,可以稍加改动就先在 VR 平台上发布。因为 VR 平台的软件红利期即将到来,这里面还是有很多机会的,并且这种实践不会偏离公司的长期目标。另外,虽然通用型的 AR 设备商业化还需要五年左右,但特定用途的垂直类型 AR 设备,比如针对教育的,针对复杂技能培训的,针对特殊行业的 AR 眼镜,完全可能两三年内就商业化成功,所以过程中一定是有收入的。
    ——考虑好赚钱

  • 我不知道从什么时候开始,一个人有点理想和追求,需要做这么多的解释和说明工作了。我怀念那个人们普遍有理想的年代,那时候好像也没有人对别人的理想说三道四。
    ——值得尊敬

  • 以前他们说我做英语老师合适,做相声演员合适,手机失败后我尝试做别的,他们又说你还是老老实实去别的手机公司做产品经理吧,你做这个合适。接下来呢?我做 AR 公司,他们该说我做直播电商更合适了吧?毕竟直播电商我都做到全国前几名了。
    ——这段话,看乐我

  • 特别适用,锤子科技创业初期,几乎全都是小兄弟。那时候唐岩跟我说,你一定要保证团队里有几个有分量的、真正意义上的合伙人。他们敢跟你拍桌子,他们拍桌子时,你会重视,会担心。如果他们没什么分量,一拍桌子你就直接让他们滚蛋,那你这个团队的天花板也就是你了,那公司就很难再上几个台阶。
    ——唐岩所说在理

  • 锤子科技中期开始,有几个知名的投资人特别看好我们的产品能力和市场营销能力。几次劝我说,如果你愿意转型,做什么我们都可以考虑投你,但不要再做手机了,时机已经过去了,再做只会害人害己。我说我靠,怎么就害人害己了?我们手机做得这么好,怎么可能不行?2016年,还有一个做产品出身的科技大佬一度想收购我们,所以总找我聊天,想加深了解,这个人你们其实都认识,他以自己的血泪经验给我忠告说,“我们这种产品经理型的创业者,最容易犯的错误就是不信机遇,不信风口,总觉得老子产品比你们牛逼,晚出来也一样会干死你们,我以前就是这样,但这个真实的商业世界不是这样运转的。”
    ——千万不要:不信机遇,不信风口

  • 其实基于现代公司法的契约精神,无论在哪个现代国家,还这个债都肯定不是天经地义的。因为这些债务里,我自己签过个人无限担保责任的不到15%,剩下的都是没有个人担保的公司债务,只要把公司破产清算就不用还了,这也就是“有限责任公司”这个词的字面意思。人类创造现代公司法的“有限责任”概念之前,创业的风险极高,很多创业失败的人只能跳楼自杀,否则终生还债也可能还不完。为了推动商业繁荣,为了鼓励创业并使创业者的风险可接受,后来就有人发明设计了“有限责任公司”的方案,并使之成为现代公司法的重要组成部分。从此一个创业者为创业需要承担的最终责任(除非另有无限担保的协议),就到公司依法破产清算为止。“有限责任”虽然也可能导致一些流氓“老赖”钻法律空子,但在人类社会的长期实践证明,远远的利大于弊,最终也成为了所有现代化国家的通行法律。
    所以不了解法律的人认为这种还债“天经地义”,了解法律的人知道它异乎寻常。“真还传”不是一个遵守契约精神的正面案例,而是一个远远超出契约精神的正面案例。这件事有这么高的媒体关注度和正面评价,基本都是这个原因。
    ——话虽有理

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