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Tencent Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

 

  • Turning to mini programs, we're now serving more than 1.1 billion users on a monthly basis, and their engagement grew significantly as time spent per DAU increased double digit year on year in the second quarter. Four million developers participate in our mini program ecosystem, offering a breadth of mini programs ranging from public services and productivity tools to AI-powered photo editors. Today, I would like to walk you through our recent success in mini games as a vertical use case example. Mini games engage over 400 million MAU and 300,000 game developers -- build a point that mini program framework.
    Both leading game companies and smaller studios actively develop and operate mini games, including casual games, card games, and many other types of games. In the second quarter, more than 100 mini games each achieved quarterly gross receipts of over 10 million RMB. The strong growth of mini games demonstrates a compelling value proposition for developers. Firstly, for developers with innovative game concepts, we help them to reduce entry barriers and launch costs.
    They can build a user base through social sharing, pre-existing login, and instant play infrastructure offered by the Weixin ecosystem. Secondly, for developers with successful app games when enabling them to extend their reach to a new audience of non-app users by porting to mini games. Thirdly, developers can benefit from advancement in mini games' infrastructure, leveraging our know-how and game technology. For example, our infrastructure can now support sophisticated genres, such as shooters, with fast loading and smooth gameplay.
    Mini games also provide Tencent with significant strategic value. First, through mini games, we host the largest casual game community in China with hundreds of millions of MAU, substantially exceeding the MAU of the largest app-based casual games in the market. Second, mini games allow us to expand our audience base and cultivate new gamers. Over 50% of mini games MAU do not play Tencent app games, and half of mini games MAU are female.
    Finally, mini games provide us with game distribution and ad revenues characterized by high margins and platform economics as opposed to hit-driven dynamics. From a reporting perspective, we report net platform fees to Tencent instead of gross user spend as revenue, and we allocate these fees to social networks subsegment instead of games subsegment. Therefore, growth in third-party mini games does not benefit our game segment revenue but flows through to our vast segment in the form of high-margin revenues. Developers can also buy advertising and contribute to our advertising revenue.
    小游戏平台最大的价值是降低游戏的开发门槛,上面这段值得多次体会

  • And then we saw it still fast but not as fast growth in May, June, and that continues in July. We continue to see all ad categories, except automotive, up double digits year on year as we -- in recent weeks. I think that looking forward through the rest of the year, obviously, advertising does depend, to some extent, on domestic consumption trends. But it's important to bear in mind that, first of all, domestic consumption trends weren't that good during the second quarter, and yet we grew 34% year on year.
    即使经济不好,也需要硬着头皮冲,寒冬对于腾讯这样的头部企业来说,其实算是利好

  • So, overall, certainly very cognizant of the macro risks, but there's been macro risk all year, and optimistic that we'll continue outgrowing the industry through the rest of the year.
    确实,世界上各个角落,一直存在着风险,但生意还是要继续进行的

  • The training is actually on track and making very good progress. We have started internal testing in our different businesses, including games, ads cloud, fintech for them to start testing the model and start working on the integration. In terms of the performance of the model so far, I think, based on our own testing, it's among the top leading foundation models produced in China. And we are very relentlessly working on the upgrade and the iteration, right, to prepare it for launch at some point of time in the latter part of this year.
    2023年下半年推出大模型

  • For example, Tencent Meeting has already been deploying a model that is developed by one of our investee companies to provide a summary of the meeting notes. And it's actually providing pretty good user experience and productivity gains for the customers. So, I think we are actually embracing generative AI on multiple fronts, and they are all making very good progress. And over the mid to long run, we believe this is actually a very positive driver for our business.
    本质上腾讯思路和微软类似,也是利用AI技术优化现有的企业服务(如举例中的腾讯会议)的体验,提高ARPU值来追求价值

  • On the game question, then we believe that the primary driver of the flat domestic game revenue in the second quarter was not lack of new titles. We did launch some PC game titles. We didn't launch many mobile game titles, but even if we had, our revenue [Inaudible] means that will contribute more later in the year than during the second quarter. The primary factor was our decision to temporarily release less commercially impactful content.
    During the first quarter, we released the large quantity of commercially impactful content that resulted in our game grossing receipts increasing quite notably, substantially more than our game domestic revenue. And then in the second quarter, we took sort of a pause period, and in the third quarter, we've resumed releasing this commercially impactful content. In terms of the longevity of our evergreen games spend, we cited some data points around both bigger and smaller games as well as around some of the newer games that we hope to cultivate into evergreen status, including Fight of the Golden Spatula, including Arena Breakout, including Wild Rift. And I think in general, if you compare our competitive eSports type evergreen titles with more content driven titles, then there's a gigantic difference in terms of retention.
    And for many of our competitive eSports titles, there are actually periods and Fight of the Golden Spatula has been doing this in recent months, where net churn is negative, meaning that new content, in this case, Set-9 has caused more returning users or more lapsed users to return to the game, then we actually churned out of the game, which is something you don't really see in contact driven games. So, we have many years of experience of operating evergreen games. Some of our earlier evergreen games, like League of Legends and Honor of Kings are still very healthy today in terms of users and monetization. One aspect of operating those games for decades rather than years or quarters is alternating between heavier commercialization quarters versus lighter commercialization quarters.
    But the benefit is those games are popular and enduring for decades, and that's what we now also hope to achieve with the new would-be evergreen games such as Fight of the Golden Spatula, Arena Breakout, or Wild Rift. Thank you.
    一个技巧是一个季度加强商业化收入,另一个季度不做太强化,学到了!

  • So, I think there's a number of both longer-term and more immediate opportunities in the immediate but also ongoing opportunities. Then, if you look at video accounts, ad load is a tiny fraction of what our peers are already operating at. And so going forward, we will progressively enhance our ad load and that translates mechanically into more revenue. In addition, our peers generate around half of their advertising revenue from endemic or sort of native advertisers who are conducting e-commerce within their short video services.
    原来抖快广告收入的一半来自于短视频中的电子商务

  • So, as we grow the e-commerce within the video accounts, leveraging our existing mini program and Tenpay infrastructure, we're in a good place to cultivate that approximate doubling in advertising revenue opportunity. And then as Martin discussed, the time spent, which is the ultimate raw material for advertising revenue in video accounts almost doubled year-on-year as well. So, a very long runway for video accounts driven by higher times spent, driven by normalizing ad load, driven by cultivation of endemic advertisers. Then in terms of advertising technology, and if you look at the big ad tech-driven companies in the West, such as Meta, that's a never-ending journey in terms of just continuing to invest more in CPU and then GPU-driven machine learning infrastructure, continuing to enhance the neural network models for doing the ad targeting, continuing to shrink the rate at which you update the models through weekly, to daily, to hourly, to minute by minute to real-time, and that's a gift that appears to never stop giving.
    讲出了诗意,哈哈哈,that's a gift that appears to never stop giving.

  • In terms of e-commerce, I would say, before the launch of video accounts and live streaming e-commerce, right, we already have a lot of commerce activities that's happening on our mini programs. That's in the trillions of annualized GMV range. And I think out of that, a meaningful portion is actually related to physical products, e-commerce. So, I think if you look at physical product, e-commerce GMV, it's exceeding 1 trillion RMB in terms of annualized GMV.
    好惊人的GMV规模
    换算一下按10亿用户,即每人每年买1000块的实物商品,我认为算是合理估计,没有夸大,
    按2%的价值贡献来算,这里也有着200亿元

  • And if you look at live streaming, right, that's a new source of revenue and a new series of e-commerce activities. And so far, the size of it is in the tens of billions RMB annualized run rate. So, that's why we feel that it's actually sort of at a very early stage of development. But the fundamental difference here is that these are e-commerce revenues that we can charge a take rate.
    And at the same time, it actually helps a lot of the merchants to acquire new customers, right? If you look at the mini programs' e-commerce activities, the merchants are essentially using their own channels to serve existing customers and try to drive repeat purchases from existing customers, whereas in the live streaming e-commerce activity is they're actually leveraging this platform to market their products and services to a new set of customers, right? And so, it actually represent a different dynamics and at the same time, without -- it complements the mini program e-commerce activities as well over time. So, I would say, the live streaming e-commerce activity is a very nice addition to the overall e-commerce activities within the overall ecosystem. And it would actually be much more revenue generating for us as well because it generates commissionary revenue. It also generates more advertising within video accounts because all these merchants will be spending ad dollars in order to drive new customers into their live streaming e-commerce sessions.

  • Well, why don't I talk about the synergies versus competition, and perhaps John will give you some thoughts on the first part of your question? On the dynamic, in general, we see three broad categories of games in China today. There are competitive eSports type games that handled properly are relatively evergreen in nature. And we have a very strong position in that market with all of the top games. And now with Wild Rift, Arena Breakout, and Fight of the Golden Spatula, we believe we're nurturing three more of those games.
    And they are evergreen in nature, and they'll be generating cash flow for us for decades rather than years to come, we think. Then secondly, there's the more story or content-driven games, which historically has been a weaker area for us. There's been a number of very good launches by our competitors in the last few months, including -- well, anyway. And we think that, that signals to some extent a renaissance in that category, and we would like to participate over time in that renaissance.
    So, we have some big narrative driven content-rich games in development, and time will tell how successful they are. But for us, it's sort of greenfield and largely upside. And then thirdly, there are casual games. And if you look at the Western world, then every year or two there's a new app-based casual game and among us sort of four guys that generates great attention, especially among younger users and then typically reaches a certain point and then declines from that point.
    But the really big development in the past five years, which we've been following extremely closely, has been the emergence of platforms, in particular the Roblox platform. And while the individual app-based games come and go in the casual category, in the platforms, then the individual experiences also come and go, but the platforms appear to -- in extra to be -- grow in terms of both users and revenue. So, we believe that the right way to address the casual game opportunity is primarily -- not entirely, but primarily through the platform model. We have a platform that is over five times bigger than any single app-based casual game in terms of users and also in terms of revenue, and it's growing at an extremely rapid rate year-on-year as new casual game experiences appear on that platform.
    In terms of the cannibalization, then there's three sort of broad buckets of users of roughly similar size. One bucket is those who have historically played app and client-based games continues to do so, do not play the mini games. A second bucket is those who had not previously played Tencent games at all and are only now playing Tencent mini games. And then a third bucket is those who do both.
    And we don't see any evidence of cannibalization because even for those who do both, they're generally playing different kinds of games, different dayparts for the mini games versus what they're doing through the app-based or client-based games. So, in our view, the mini game platform is largely incremental rather than cannibalistic to our app-based games. It gets us into this big emerging casual game opportunity, and it gets us into it in a way that we think is the best way to get into it, which is as a Roblox-like platform rather than as a stand-alone app with a stand-alone game experience that flourishes for a period of time and then it gives way to the next hit.
    ──非常经典的游戏战略描述!!! 1)常青的竞技类游戏;2)尝试切入内容/故事驱动的游戏品类;3)休闲类游戏品类-通过微信小游戏来构建平台来实现(类比于Roblox)
    ──这里给我的另一个问题是:腾讯之前和Roblox的合作-罗布乐思,是一个幌子?还是因为没做起来?只能微信自己下场干?

  • Why don't I start on both of those, and Martin may supplement? So, on the competitive environment for games, I'll repeat some of the answers to the last question, which is we see these three broad categories. One being the more competitive eSports games where we already have a very strong presence. We're doubling down on that with the success of the three new eSports games we've talked about. A second being the more content or narrative-driven games where competition has intensified, a number of companies have brought some good games to market recently.
    That doesn't come at our expense because historically we generate very little revenue in that category, rather it's a category that we're looking forward to entering more actively in the years to come. And then thirdly, with the casual games, where there's a number of industry peers who are sort of seeking to be among us, and we're seeking to be Roblox. And that's fine, both businesses are good businesses, but we certainly are very happy with the business choice we have made of adopting the platform approach. So, that's on the game competition aspect.
    In terms of the sensitivity to the macro environment, then if we just touch briefly on each of advertising, fintech and games. Starting with games, while it was clearly not the best quarter for our domestic game revenue, I think that was completely unrelated to macro. In fact, in an environment where macro is challenged, consumers are shifting to lower ticket price experiences, consumers are shifting from goods to services, in theory is pretty good for the game industry. And as a parallel, I'd point you to the movie theater industry in China, the movie ticketing where, as you may know, movie ticketing has been extremely strong in the last two to three months as people look for affordable entertainment driven experiences rather than highly priced luxuries and so forth.
    ──消費者正在轉向低票價體驗,消費者正在從商品轉向服務,理論上對遊戲行業來說是相當不錯的。作為类比,我想指出中國的電影院行業,電影票務,你可能知道,在過去的兩三個月里,電影票務非常強勁,因為人們尋找負擔得起的娛樂驅動體驗,而不是高價奢侈品等等。
    ──非常insightful

  • So, I think the game business both in China and globally, historically has not been economically cyclical and we don't believe it will become economically cyclical now in China. In terms of the advertising business, that could be economically cyclical. It should be economically cyclical. However, it's not sensitive so much to net exports or property prices.
    It's more directly sensitive to consumption spending. And so far, consumption spending has been recovering albeit at a very gradual measured pace. Again, we believe that whatever happens going forward to the macro environment and if net exports and real estate and so forth eventually impact consumer, that we will outperform because we're in the early stages of monetizing video accounts because we're in the early stages of deploying ad tech and because we deliver very high ROIs, which mean advertisers should stay with us for longer.And then on the fintech business and particularly the commercial payments within fintech, that does reflect economic activity, particularly consumer activity somewhat in real-time. And so, I think that, that is the business where macro variable plays the most into our revenue fluctuations.
    We do have a number of different services within fintech beyond the immediate commercial payments. We talked about how in this supportive regulatory environment, we look forward to extending and launching new such services, but a commercial payment is probably the area where for better or worse, we're most directly exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations on a month-to-month basis. Thank you.
    ──游戏这门生意,并不依赖经济周期

  • So, if I want to add right now, I would say on the Banhao side, we actually are very excited about the issuance of Banhaos because the gaming industry is really driven by innovation and without innovation, the market doesn't grow. And I think the fact that we have seen a growth in the overall market is because of the fact that we are seeing new innovations of new games. So, when the overall market expanding, I think we benefit, we'll be bringing new titles to the market. And at the same time, I think if you look at the mini cash -- at the mini games platform, right, it actually benefits from the fact that there is more and more innovation within the market.
    ──小游戏也受益于各个小游戏公司的创新

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He disliked biography attempts. “I regard my scientific papers as my essential biography,’’ Land said. “I pour my whole life into the scientific project I’m investigating. I leave behind the things I’ve done in the past to do the work in the present.’’ “The purpose of inventing instant photography was essentially aesthetic,’’ Land said in 1947, announcing the process’s invention. “We live in a world changing so rapidly that what we mean frequently by common sense is doing the thing that would have been right last year.” — Edwin Land, Statement to Polaroid Corporation employees (25 June 1958) The worldview he was describing perfectly echoed Land’s: “Market research is what you do when your product isn’t any good.” And his sense of innovation: “Every significant invention,” Land once said, “must be startling, unexpected, and must come into a world that is not prepared for it. If the world were prepared for it, it would not be much of an invention.” Thirty years later, when a reporter ask...

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产品随想 | 周刊 第52期:HP家的Linux笔记本

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