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产品随想 | 张鸣论中国传统政治

原始文章目录

Insight:

  • 中国自秦汉以来一直是官僚化的帝制结构,虽然皇帝最终要凭借官僚这个中介才能统治国家,但官员的权力来源和合法性依据都是皇权。官僚机器只是帝制的“车轮”。所以,皇帝要怎么样,官员只要迎合,就能获利。只有在皇帝明显违反常识道理、造成重大灾祸之时,官员才可能凭借儒家伦理对皇帝提出批评。理性选择的结果使得官员更多地趋向于顺从皇帝。
    ——符合历史以来的感知

  • 中国尽管有两千多年官僚制的传统,但守规矩、遵法制、走程序的现代理性官僚制度却一直都没有建立起来。考试取官的确是理性官僚制的一个重要因素,但中国古代官僚制只是万里长征走完了第一步,然后就再也不走了。隋唐科举制建立的初衷也并非建设官僚体系,而是防止贵族垄断官职,强化君权。科举制度越来越严密,选拔出来的人才也愈发精英化。但是,官僚的行为却没有程式化和规法化。官员的个人行为偏好往往直接影响一地的发展。
    ——如何再往前走一步,可以看看新加坡

  • 官员的行为模式往往以皇帝的喜好为风向标。一般来说,皇帝喜欢什么,一个朝代就兴什么。汉初皇帝喜欢黄老,臣子们就清静无为;东汉皇帝喜欢儒生,则臣子们多为经学家;唐初皇帝喜人上书言事,则多诤谏之徒;到晚唐,皇帝喜欢佛教了,则多礼佛之士;清代嘉庆之后,皇帝提倡节俭,带头穿补丁衣服,则满朝文武衣服上都打了补丁,有的补丁比衣服本身还贵。
    ——Interesting

  • 皇帝行为的不确定性,势必导致官员行为无法程序化、规范化,而皇帝行为的不确定往往是由统治术决定的,属刻意为之。多数王朝都外儒内法,崇尚权术,甚至迷信权术。秦始皇和丞相李斯之间,有过一个小故事。李斯随从车马过盛,很是招摇,皇帝看了不高兴。随行的宦官就把这事告诉了李斯,李斯于是轻车简从,低调起来。秦始皇马上知道身边有人泄密,又审不出来,于是把当时在身边的人都杀了。因此,官员要看皇帝的喜好行事,而皇帝却偏偏不想让官员知道自己的喜好,刻意让他们去揣摩、迎合、争宠,以便控制、操控他们。这就是为什么一向为人看不起的阉人,始终是中国王朝政治中不可或缺的成分。其目的很简单,就是官僚需要通过宦官了解朝中的信息,掌握太后和皇帝的动向。

  • 帝制还会有一些特别的制度安排,刻意强化皇帝行为的不确定性。比如明清两朝都实行低俸制,但绝大多数官员都可以通过政务上下其手,获得大量的灰色收入。对于这些,皇帝一清二楚,但就是不肯加以改变,即确定性地增加官员白色收入。这样做,实际上就是把绝大多数官员都置于违法犯罪的状态,进一步扩大了皇帝操控官员的空间。
    ——“就是不肯加以改变,即确定性地增加官员白色收入”,细思极恐,新加坡与香港,都是典型的高薪养廉,但在法治、民主不健全环境里,底层民众收入低,而给官员高薪水,也是另一种困境,说不过去

  • 君主制的近代转型,都是从限制君权(具体地说,是限制君主行为的不确定性)开始的。英国的大宪章运动,就是英国的贵族和新兴资产者通过跟国王签订宪章,限制国王无度的征税,逐渐限制国王的其他权力,最终发展为君主立宪制。清末预备立宪,其钦定宪法大纲、成立准议会资政院,主要比照日本,因为日本立宪体系中君权比较重。但是,预备立宪一旦进入行动程序,各省的准议会谘议局和中央的准国会资政院一成立,君权包括代表君权的各省督抚之权,还是被大大地抑制了。督抚想增加点税,居然怎么都不行了。资政院居然多次提出议案,弹劾代表君权的军机处。后来,就自然有了当家的满人亲贵执意收权,得罪了全国的士绅,以致于辛亥革命发生,皇帝被推翻。
    ——最后一句的因果关系,值得商榷

  • 如果是在一个传统的农业国度,这样的机会主义危害还小点。因为中国农村基本上是自治的,官场只要不大折腾,农村都能自己运转。但是,在一个走向城市化和现代化的国家,恰好这个国家的政府权力还超大,官员迎合式的折腾,小则危害地方,大则坑害国家。一个政策出台,没有修正剂,没有刹车装置,动辄上千亿、几万亿砸出去,等到发现错了,已经铸成大错,无法挽回了。在这样的情况下,能刹车的只有一个人或者最高层的几个人,而车轮启动恰好是迎合了最高层的偏好,指望来自最高层的刹车制动,显然是不可能的。
    ——而且最高层,不一定会下“罪己诏”

  • 只要最高统治者的行为没有纳入法治之下、接受制度的约束,官场机会主义就永远消除不了。权力集中在一个明君身上,的确可以高效地实现很多大目标。但是,今天的世界,对政治领袖的要求不是雄才大略、英明决策,而是不犯或者少犯错误,尤其不犯大错误。规范领导人行为,减少领导人行为不确定性,才能最大限度地遏制官员的机会主义倾向,使其眼睛向下,以民众的利益为政治的出发点。
    ——跟芒格的投资逻辑很相通,尽量不犯错

  • 从科举实行的1300多年的历史来看,科举制的确是一把锋利的斧子,对于削平门阀世族有着奇妙的作用。皇帝对科举的重视,是因为这样的选官途径可以保证最高权威的畅通无阻;宋代之后,进士考试的殿试又极大地强化了皇帝对科举的控制。而民间对科举的看好,是因为考试意味着公平和公正,意味着平民的机会。官位的获取,由于跟科举考试的结合,在民间获得了极大的合法性。高官的后代,一般也不屑于走门荫入仕之途,有志者,一定会走科举的“正路”。无论朝政混乱到了什么地步,只要科举尚在,就始终是人们入仕的第一选择。
    ——以前的科举考试,变成了如今的高考+公务员考试

  • 美籍华人学者何炳棣统计了明清之际12000多位进士和23000多位举人的家庭出身,发现出身于此前未有功名的寒门小户之家的人,占了差不多一半。明代寒门的比例高一点,约在55%左右,而清朝稍低,也有37%左右。白衣致卿相,在那个时代,不仅仅是一个普通士子的梦,而且是某种程度的现实——虽然实现的可能性并不大,却能保证把多数优秀的读书人都拴在科举上。

  • 按今天政治学理论的标准,中国古代的国家,都属于小国家,国家政权不下乡,基本上不提供公共产品和公共服务。但是这样一个自治的社会,却跟官僚制有着血肉联系。由于读书人都在围绕着科举制的金字塔活动,而他们又是乡村自治社会和宗族的领袖,所以,在古代中国,实际上不存在国家与社会的二元对立,在官本位的价值体系上,它们是统一的。
    ——最后一句描述,需要想想

  • 官本位深入骨髓的魅力,在很大程度上托庇于科举制。没有科举制,官吏的选拔势必会充满乌烟瘴气和任人唯亲、任人唯钱的肮脏。人们每每痛恨官吏,但因为有了科举,人们对官吏的感情有了很复杂的两面,既痛恨,又艳羡。通过考试做官的人,就变得令人钦佩。凡是正途出身,尤其是两榜进士出身的进士,不仅上司高看一眼,连百姓也高看一眼。中国古代政治,一般不讲政府合法性的问题,但官员的合法性,往往就在科举上。
    ——不讲政府合法性,但讲究官员合法性,最后一句话很真实

  • 自1905年废除科举,到1949年中华人民共和国成立,这一阶段从晚清到民国,无论是北洋时期还是国民党时期,科举制度全面没落。中国这个时期掌握国家权力的人,都是军人,而新生代的绅士和商人以及新式知识分子,也作为社会精英,登上历史舞台,官吏则谈不上是社会精英。
    ——社会变换,这段时间的思想风尚,非常自由,民国大师

  • 1949年以后,尤其是1952年高等教育改革之后,实行高校全国统一考试,事实上把高考变成了新的科举。考上大中专院校的学生,毕业之后,都是国家干部,由国家统一分配工作,就像过去由吏部统一分发各省候补一样。这样的制度在实行13年之后,被“文革”中断;改革开放后恢复了不到十年,随着大学毕业不包分配的改革,高考科举复辟的性质,悄然褪色。科举的光环,现在被公务员考试和高考分担着,但色彩越来越黯淡。
    ——哈哈,原来我前面提到过的,张鸣也描述了

  • 当代中国的改革,实际上是政府拉动的。在整个改革开放和市场经济建立过程中,中国经济的快速发展,政府实际上是最大的获益者。政府不仅握有市场上无所不在的审批权,而且可以直接操控司法,干预经济,或者利用面目不清的国企,参与经济活动。结果,即使没有腐败,政府官员也变成了操控资源的香饽饽。
    ——君不见,国企领导,国企书记

  • 在这样的转型过程中,对官僚体制的改造有两种路径可以走。一是建立一个理性、廉洁、高效的官僚制,重建科举,使官僚制的入口公平公正,保证这个制度起到不断从民间汲取人才的作用。二是缩小政府,放弃多数目前的政府职能,实行西方式的文官考试,让社会大于政府,抹掉公务员职位的光环,让多数人才都进入商界、科技界以及学界。可惜的是,我们现在是两者皆弃。既没有走理性官僚制的路,也没有走小政府大社会的路。公务员考试学的是西方,但公务员却成了社会上最受欢迎的职业。官本位的价值还在,而且依旧得到制度的支持。庞大而且日益扩张的官僚体制,已经日益成为中国现代化道路上的障碍。
    ——公务员考试,居然是学习西方的?

  • 在整个帝制的历史上,尽管君主们知道实话实说对他们的统治有莫大的好处,但他们却一直在做一种反向的努力,尽力削减人们说真话、说实话的空间。从盛唐到晚唐,皇帝也一直在降低宰相们的官衔,好让他们没那么大的资本跟自己争吵。进入宋代,一直在皇帝身边坐而论道的宰相们忽然之间就没有了座位。到了明代,一身流氓气的开国皇帝把宰相也给废了,而且开创了帝制国家特务政治的先例,锦衣卫、东西厂,走法外的轨道,口衔天宪,随意迫害群臣。御史只对下,不对上。而到了清代,传统的士大夫对儒家经典的解释权,也被皇帝收去,文字狱一个接一个。在这种根本不让人说话的政治气氛里,干、嘉、道三朝元老曹振镛的名言“多磕头少说话”成为清代臣子们必须遵行的准则。很多臣子,把磕头当成了健身体操,每日练习。皇帝要求臣子的,只是做事,别妄想做大臣,只能做奴才。
    ——张鸣讲的也太直白了

  • 一个国家的政治,若是到了实话不能实说,非得绕着弯子说,迂回地说,把实话变成马屁来说,才能于时局有所小补的时候,政治空气就已经相当恶劣了。这种时候,我们看到,有责任的热血之士,如果还想在体制内做点事,就非得把自己变成八面玲珑的“琉璃蛋”,变成特别会说话的“巧嘴八哥”。否则,就只好投身反叛队伍,致力于推翻现实政权。这是实话的扭曲,但从根本上说,是政治的扭曲。这样的扭曲严重了,离政权垮台也就不远了。

  • 权力是要人来行使的,而人则是有人性的弱点的。古往今来,人们一直期待有权者通过自身的道德修养实现自我约束,不再放纵权力。但是,迄今为止,无一成功。所以,对权力的约束,才是良好政治所必须具备的条件。古今世事大变,可是,人性的变化其实并不大。人性的弱点,是超越国界,超越地域,超越信仰,超越时空,也超越意识形态的。对人性恶的防范是人类永恒的课题,对权力的约束亦未有穷期。
    ——法治约束,比道德约束更靠谱

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Why AI Will Save the World   https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/ Marc Andreessen的雄文,十分有說服力,邏輯清晰 辯證了現今AI監管拋出的5個可能的AI問題 讀的過程中,腦海裏浮現的都是編程隨想那篇文章 为什么马克思是错的?——全面批判马列主义的知名著作导读   https://program-think.blogspot.com/2018/09/Book-Review-The-Errors-of-Marxism-Leninism.html 兩者的思維鏈條、敘事方式,非常相似 人民聖殿教   https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/人民圣殿教?useskin=vector 瓊斯自稱是神的化身,幾千年前轉世為釋迦牟尼,創建了佛教;後來又轉世為耶穌基督,創建了基督教;之後短期化身轉世為巴孛,建立巴哈伊信仰;最後轉世為列寧,將社會主義發揚光大。 邪教徒聲稱自己轉世成了列寧,這說明了什麼? Apple Vision   https://stratechery.com/2023/apple-vision Omnivore   https://github.com/omnivore-app/omnivore Omnivore is a complete, open source read-it-later solution for people who like reading. How the YouTube Algorithm Works in 2023: The Complete Guide   https://blog.hootsuite.com/how-the-youtube-algorithm-works/#A_brief_history_of_the_YouTube_algorithm 外人眼中的YouTube推薦算法變遷 Histography   https://histography.io/ “Histography" is interactive timeline that spans across 14 billion years of history, f...

巴菲特致股东信-1974年

 笔记: 价格战企业的逻辑:需要降价获取销量--->需要降低成本--->怎么降?扩大规模以摊低成本--->提高固定资产投入--->净资产回报率会降低 翻译: 雪球:https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131257947 备份:https://archive.ph/5CEP6 原文: To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: Operating results for 1974 overall were unsatisfactory due to the poor performance of our insurance business. In last year's annual report some decline in profitability was predicted but the extent of this decline, which accelerated during the year, was a surprise. Operating earnings for 1974 were $8,383,576, or $8.56 per share, for a return on beginning shareholders' equity of 10.3%. This is the lowest return on equity realized since 1970. Our textile division and our bank both performed very well, turning in improved results against the already good figures of 1973. However, insurance underwriting, which has been mentioned in the last several annual reports as running at levels of unsustainable profitability, turned dramatically worse...

Interview with Steve Jobs, WGBH, 1990

Interviewer: what is it about this machine? Why is this machine so interesting? Why has it been so influential? Jobs: Ah ahm, I'll give you my point of view on it. I remember reading a magazine article a long time ago ah when I was ah twelve years ago maybe, in I think it was Scientific American . I'm not sure. And the article ahm proposed to measure the efficiency of locomotion for ah lots of species on planet earth to see which species was the most efficient at getting from point A to point B. Ah and they measured the kilocalories that each one expended. So ah they ranked them all and I remember that ahm...ah the Condor, Condor was the most efficient at [CLEARS THROAT] getting from point A to point B. And humankind, the crown of creation came in with a rather unimpressive showing about a third of the way down...