跳至主要内容

Notes for the New Year

Notes for the New Year

by Sam Altman1/4/2017

Happy 2017!

As a kid, I just sort of took for granted that stuff got better every year—TVs got bigger and then thinner, cars got a little faster, and computers got unbelievably better on an exponential curve.

As an adult, I realized that the future is not guaranteed to be better. The default is that things stay the same (or get worse because we continue to create new problems and occasionally get in wars). The world only gets better if committed people with strong visions about the future work hard to make it better.

It’s easy to get caught up in the moving sidewalk of a career and end up deeply involved in something that does not maximize your potential. It’s never too late to change, and it’s always good to be thoughtful about the path you’re on and how to best use your time.

I made some notes before my brother Jack interviewed me for How to Build the Future, where I mostly talked about how ambitious young people should think about their careers. I thought I’d clean those up to share for the New Year. Here they are.


On What To Work On

I think the best way to pick what you want to do is to find the intersection of what you’re good at, what you enjoy, what the world needs, and what the world values.

It’s not easy to figure out what you actually care about– there are so many directions you can go. But rather than listening to where other people might push you, it’s worth trying to figure this out for yourself. Don’t chase other people’s ideas of what matters. The best way to succeed long-term is to deeply believe that what you’re doing matters.

Most people just fall into things that come their way. That can work – people sometimes just have to try stuff to figure out what they like – but I think it’s worth being more deliberate. Try to develop and carefully refine strong convictions about what you want to accomplish.

The framework I’ve found most useful for helping people think through career decisions is to consider both impact maximization and regret minimization—a decision that scores well on both is likely to be a good one.

On Achieving Success

The way to get things done in the world is a combination of focus, personal connections, and self-belief.

You should work really hard. You should be willing to do whatever it takes; society doesn’t owe you success. Be a doer, not a talker – history belongs to the doers.

Whatever you choose to do, you’ve got to believe in your own capacity to succeed. People will doubt you and think your goals are impossible or dumb, but you have to stand behind your convictions.

It’s ok to start off motivated by wanting to make a lot of money or wanting fame and glory. At some point though, most people need to find a deeper mission to keep pushing forward.

The right way to think about your career is like compound interest; if you put in long hours at the start of your career and get a little bit better at what you do every day, you’re going to accomplish more than others. That builds up a compound effect that will extend throughout your entire career. Life is obviously unfair and you don’t know what will happen, but all else equal it becomes a major advantage.

Enjoy your life when you’re young – it’s a true cliche that you only have your youth once – but work harder than most people think you should. I’ve come to believe that burnout isn’t so much associated with working too hard, but instead from things not working out. If you have momentum with whatever you’re working on, you’ll stay motivated and refreshed.

Learn to say “yes” to an amazing opportunity even if you’re not 100% sure how to do it or if you’re ready—it’s possible to learn a lot very quickly. A mistake a lot of people make is to compare themselves to very successful people today, instead of the version of that person from ten years ago, which probably looks a lot more familiar.

On Finding Your People

You want to find your tribe – the types of people like you that you can imagine working with for the rest of your career. Within that, you want to find a small group of people whom you trust, and whose opinions you really respect.

You should probably be willing to move. For whatever you’re interested in, there will be pockets of people around the world who are doing the best work, and it’s worth getting as close to them as possible.

Help others for no reason at all. When you’re young, you tend to have a small network, and that limits your options. When you help people without any intention of ever getting benefit back, doors and new connections will open – this has been super important for me.

On Giving Up

When some people try something and it doesn’t work after a few weeks or months, they give up. I think that’s way too early to quit.

If people are saying that what you’re doing or what you’re making is bad, pay attention to that as feedback, but don’t let it get to you personally. It’s not a sign to give up, but instead to refine your approach.

It’s hard to say when is the right time to give up, but I think it’s usually when you yourself feel you have run out of ideas, and you don’t see any pathways to keep experimenting further.

If you think you’ve reached that point, by all means walk away. There’s no glory in dragging things out if you’re truly out of ideas. Shut down what you’re working on, decompress, and try something new a few months later.

If you’re working on the right thing it will probably be really hard. It will likely take a long time and you’ll face a lot of criticism. The super successful people I know spent a very long time pursuing their ideas, way past when most people would have given up. Keep pushing forward.

On Taking Risk

Most people are wrong about what is risky and what is not, and so they don’t take nearly enough risk. Take more risks, especially when you’re early on in your career; being young and unknown is actually a major advantage because you have very little to lose.

Don’t let fear of failing stop you from taking risks. That is a risk itself, because you will miss out by not acting.

If you do fail or end up in a crisis, you’ll probably be OK. The more crises I’ve faced in my life, the less scary each subsequent one has become. I’m secure in the knowledge I’ve made it through disaster before and I believe I will again.

If you do something new and ambitious, be ready for doomsayers. Doing new things is hard both because you have to figure out how to do it and you have to deal with a constant barrage of negativity.

Simple tip – don’t be afraid to ask for what you want. If you’re doing something ambitious, you’ll be told “no”, a lot. Sometimes though, people will give you what you want. Those times will outweigh the pains of being rejected, so be aggressive.

On Money

When I was young, I had a misconception that you get rich from making a nice salary. As I got older, I realized the way to get rich was by owning things that go up in value—i.e., equity.

I think that time is the major arbitrage opportunity still left in the market. People are increasingly focused on the short-term, so there are lots of untouched opportunities that just take a long time to mature. I’ve found that these types of bets have helped me generate the most value and wealth.

One way to become an owner is to start a company, and there especially, it’s best to take a long-term approach. If you pick the right thing and devote yourself to growing it over the long run, you can make far more money than with a bunch of short-term payouts along the way. If you aim big, you only have to be right once. Start early in your career, and if you fail, keep trying.

As a general note, I think you should look for opportunities where if they work out, you will 10x your net worth. And if you have the option to invest in advancing yourself, do it — it’s usually better than saving the money.

On Thinking About The Future

Strong opinions about the future are valuable. Here again, the most interesting and successful people I know seem to all have strong ideas about what the future will look like. They are willing to be convinced with new data that they are wrong, but the bar for that is fairly high.

I don’t agree with the idea that the future is unknowable. There’s a lot you can have conviction about that will happen or that you can make come true.

Have strong opinions on where you want to go and then be flexible on the details.

Popular posts from 产品随想的博客

《逢いたくていま》──仁医主题曲

原始链接: 听歌学日语 | 唱哭很多人的《逢いたくていま》 あ いたくていま - MISIA 现在好想见你- MISIA 初 はじ めて 出会 であ った 日 ひ のこと  覚 おぼ えてますか 第一次相遇的那天 你是不是还记得呢?   過 す ぎ 行 ゆ く 日 ひ の 思 おも い 出 で を  忘 わす れずにいて 那些过去日子的回忆 我一直没有有忘记   あなたが 見 み つめた  全 すべ てを  感 かん じていたくて 凝视着你 这一切的全部 我都想要感觉   空 そら を 見上 みあ げた 抬头仰望天空   今 いま はそこで  私 わたし を  見守 みまも っているの? 你到现在是否还在那里守护着我?   教 おし えて… 请你告诉我 今 いま   逢 あ いたいあなたに 现在好想见你 伝 つた えたい 事 こと がたくさんある 有好多想要告訴你的事情   ねえ  逢 あ いたい  逢 あ いたい 呐 好想见你 好想见你   気 き づけば  面影 おもかげ   探 さが して  悲 かな しくて 如果能注意到的话 你的面容 是在寻找着 还是悲伤着 どこにいるの?  抱 だ きしめてよ 到底在哪里呢? 好想抱紧你 私 わたし はここにいるよ ずっと 我 会一直在这里 一直等你 もう 二度 にど と 逢 あ えないことを  知 し っていたなら 如果能早点知道 已经再也无法相见   繋 つな いだ 手 て をいつまでも  離 はな さずにいた 我会牵在一起的手 永远都不会放开   『ここにいて』と そう 素直 すなお に  泣 な いていたなら 如果当初诚实哭泣地告诉你『留在我身边』的话   今 いま もあなたは  変 か わらぬまま 现在的你是否也依然不变地   私 わたし の 隣 とな りで ...

Interview with Steve Jobs, WGBH, 1990

Interviewer: what is it about this machine? Why is this machine so interesting? Why has it been so influential? Jobs: Ah ahm, I'll give you my point of view on it. I remember reading a magazine article a long time ago ah when I was ah twelve years ago maybe, in I think it was Scientific American . I'm not sure. And the article ahm proposed to measure the efficiency of locomotion for ah lots of species on planet earth to see which species was the most efficient at getting from point A to point B. Ah and they measured the kilocalories that each one expended. So ah they ranked them all and I remember that ahm...ah the Condor, Condor was the most efficient at [CLEARS THROAT] getting from point A to point B. And humankind, the crown of creation came in with a rather unimpressive showing about a third of the way down...

犀流研习班第十期001-2讲听课笔记

一. 杂谈   1. Max  逼真的效果图和视频   2. SU  显示模式,费力可以作出好看的效果图   3. Maya  支持Nurbs,但不快捷,对CAD导出也不方便

产品随想 | 周刊 第69期:Do not go gentle into that good night

Products Windows Apps That Amaze Us   https://amazing-apps.gitbook.io/windows-apps-that-amaze-us/ 令人精细的Windows App 文物出版社   https://book.douban.com/press/2456/ 这是一个宝藏出版社,出品书籍质量非常高,大开眼界 blind   https://www.teamblind.com/ 老外的匿名职场社交工具,挺有意思,看看硅谷的meme 中国科学技术大学测速网站   https://test.ustc.edu.cn/ 看着还不错,挺靠谱的 底层代码是LibreSpeed   https://github.com/librespeed/speedtest 能不能好好说话?   https://github.com/itorr/nbnhhsh 也是我的一个痛点 Tree Style Tab (aka TST)   https://github.com/piroor/treestyletab 一个超强的浏览器扩展插件,树状呈现浏览器标签 Failory Pitch Decks   https://www.failory.com/pitch-deck 超级多的融资计划投资板,Pitch Book AutoCut   https://github.com/mli/autocut 用文本编辑器剪视频 全网漫游指南   https://tagly.notion.site/tagly/a333efd8c3e54e12b123acd541e8d3e6 数字时代的指引,希望他们成功 IT eBooks   https://it-ebooks.info/ IT书籍下载 ToastFish   https://github.com/Uahh/ToastFish 一个利用摸鱼时间背单词的软件。 利用Win10通知栏,出现、背单词 Ideas 沈向洋:IDEA 如何找到创新的「甜区」   https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OlI5VUxQKU_ijWZClQCG0Q AIGC How Did Nor...

产品随想 | 周刊 第115期:2024.5.16 Great libraries build communities

Loop   https://github.com/MrKai77/Loop Loop is a macOS app that simplifies window management for you! 我的电视 my-tv   https://github.com/lizongying/my-tv 我的电视 电视直播软件,安装即可使用 When we think about this technology, we need to put human dignity, human well-being—human jobs—in the center of consideration. ————Fei-Fei Li Author Talks: Dr. Fei-Fei Li sees ‘worlds’ of possibilities in a multidisciplinary approach to AI   https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/mckinsey-on-books/author-talks-dr-fei-fei-li-sees-worlds-of-possibilities-in-a-multidisciplinary-approach-to-ai Randy Ubillos   https://apple.fandom.com/wiki/Randy_Ubillos Randall Hayes "Randy" Ubillos is the original software engineer behind Adobe Premiere and Final Cut Pro. 影响全球视频制作的男人, Reminders MenuBar   https://github.com/DamascenoRafael/reminders-menubar Simple macOS menu bar application to view and interact with reminders. Developed with SwiftUI and using Apple Reminders as a source. Bad libraries build colle...

产品爱好者周刊 第36期:走进Linux

Products OpenShot   https://github.com/OpenShot/openshot-qt OpenShot Video Editor is an award-winning free and open-source video editor for Linux, Mac, and Windows 开源的视频剪辑工具,跨平台 Run   https://github.com/The-Run-Philosophy-Organization/run 润学全球官方指定GITHUB,整理润学宗旨、纲领、理论和各类润之实例 Dozer   https://github.com/Mortennn/Dozer Hide menu bar icons on macOS ThisIsWin11   https://github.com/builtbybel/ThisIsWin11 Win11的隐私保护 RoundedTB   https://github.com/torchgm/RoundedTB Add margins, rounded corners and segments to your taskbars! Droptop Four   https://github.com/Droptop-Four/Basic-Version Droptop Four is the fourth iteration of the popular dropdown app launcher for Windows & Rainmeter. LibreTube   https://github.com/Libre-tube/LibreTube An alternative frontend for YouTube, for Android. nheko   https://github.com/Nheko-Reborn/nheko Quaternion   https://github.com/quotient-im/Quaternion 多平台的Matrix客户端 FluffyChat   https://fluffychat.im/ Phone端的Matrix...

Apple's One-Dollar-a-Year Man, By Steve Jobs, 2000

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Now that Steve Jobs has showed his hand on Apple's Internet and system software strategies and dropped the "interim" from his title, other questions loom. He's always denied it, but isn't it true that his old company, Next, did wind up taking over Apple? Will there ever be an encore to the 15-year-old Macintosh? Short of that, does Apple have any plans to jump into the "Internet appliance" fray? Will Apple ever build computers for business people again? And what, pray tell, does Steve think of all these young Internet zillionaires? Let's ask. Practically every technology that your old company, Next, possessed when Apple acquired it in 1997 is now being used by Apple in some strategic way. This must seem like sweet vindication.  The thing about Next was that we produced something that was truly brilliant for an audience that our heart really wasn't into selling to--namely, the enterprise. I suppose if you were wr...

产品随想 | 周刊 第43期:历史上的今天

Products Huberman Lab   https://hubermanlab.com/ 一款聚焦于健康的播客 今日热榜   https://tophub.today/ 聚合展示,国内各热门榜单,对跟进热点非常有帮助,热点运营的好帮手 SketchyBar   https://github.com/FelixKratz/SketchyBar A highly customizable macOS status bar replacement Mac菜单栏定制 自定义程度很高,看作者展示的案例,暂时没想出这样的好处(不过应用本身的编辑,确实也没啥意义)生命在于折腾吧! Thanks-Mirror   https://github.com/eryajf/Thanks-Mirror 整理记录各个包管理器,系统镜像,以及常用软件的好用镜像,Thanks Mirror。 Musicn   https://github.com/zonemeen/musicn 一个下载高品质音乐的命令行工具,音乐来源: 咪咕 Planet Minecraft A creative Minecraft community fansite sharing maps, minecraft skins, resource packs, servers, mods, and more. 里面有很多动人的故事 可能是世界上最大的Minecraft社区,从2010年至今 The Uncensored Library   https://www.uncensoredlibrary.com/en blockworks   https://www.blockworks.uk/ "Distinctive maps for Minecraft that have educated players and risen to the level of art" 游戏也可以让人有更高的实现,而不仅仅是沉迷其中,国外游戏厂商比我们做的好太多 Minecraft_Memory_Bypass_GUI   https://github.com/xingchuanzhen/Minecraft_Memory_Bypass_GUI 绕过Minecraft...

Steve Jobs: `There's Sanity Returning', 1998

Nobody can doubt the charisma of Steven P. Jobs. The interim CEO of Apple Computer Inc., who returned to the company last July after his ignominious 1985 ouster, has brought back his legendary vision, impatience, and infectious passion for the Macintosh. Jobs spoke to Business Week Correspondent Andy Reinhardt in Apple's stark, fourth-floor boardroom, just after the company rolled out its new software strategy on May 11. Note: This is an extended, online-only version of the Q&A that appears in the May 25, 1998, issue of Business Week. Q: Now that you've introduced the new, bold-looking iMac, are you going to do some radically different products? A: There's a lot of talk about such things -- about handhelds, set-top boxes. A lot of computer companies have been searching for a consumer product. My view is that the personal computer has been the most successful consumer product of the last 10 years. What we have to do, what the industry stopp...

有关密码学 Cryptography

% Crypto 101 % CUI Hao 密码学 Cryptography 加密 :军事、商业保密、身份认证、日记... 计算机出现前:加密 人类语言文字 。 计算机出现后:加密比特流(ASCII文本、网络协议) 古典替换式密码 凯撒密码 文本中每个字母在字母表上后移 k 个位置。 ATTACK -> DWWDFN (k=3) IBM -> HAL (k=-1) 改进 重新排列 字母表(单字母替换): alphabet: ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ map to: RCPWUXNQBZFMYTLIEGVDJOAKHS example: ATTACK -> RDDRPF "密码组合"有 26! 种之多。 维吉尼亚密码 每k个字母一组,与长度k的密码做 加法 : ATTACKATDAWN (plaintext) + LEMONLEMONLE (key: LEMON) = LXFOPVEFRNHR (ciphertext) 多个字母的凯撒密码。 替换式密码 substitution cipher 单字母替换/多字母替换/密码本... 加密算法:映射 密码:描述映射关系 解密算法:反过来映射 另一种设计方案 也许是中国人发明的吧: 群书万卷常暗诵, 主人顾盼千金重。 药物楚老渔商市, 丸剑跳踯霜雪浮。 移位式密码 ( transposition cipher ) 列移位密码 按密码重新排列文本各列,然后竖着读出来: KEY: 6 3 2 4 1 5 TEXT: W E A R E D     CT:     I S C O V E ==> EVLNEACDTKESEAQROFOJDEECUWIREE     R E D F L E     E A T O N C     E Q K J E U     (WE ARE DISCOVERED. FLEE AT ONCE) ...