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《Becoming Steve Jobs》Chapter 14 A Safe Haven for Pixar


  • Iger had big news to share: The following day, March 13, Disney would announce that he would become the next CEO of Disney, replacing Michael Eisner. Eisner had been CEO since 1984, and had followed a great first decade with a second one that can only be described as mediocre and turbulent. By the end, he had disappointed shareholders and alienated just about every stakeholder who had a vested interest in the company. One of those was Pixar’s CEO, who disliked Eisner so much that he had publicly announced that the company would find a new distributor once its existing contract with Disney ended in 2006.

  • “Steve,” said Iger, “before you read it in the paper tomorrow, I’m calling to let you know I’m going to be named the next CEO of the company. I don’t fully know what that’s going to mean in terms of Disney and Pixar, but I’m calling to tell you I’d like to figure out a way to keep this relationship alive.”

  • There was a long pause on the other end of the line. Iger had pondered this call for several days. He knew that fixing the mess at Disney Animation was the most crucial task facing him as CEO, and he had already decided that keeping Pixar was the key to any solution. From what he’d heard, Steve thought of him as a mere extension of Eisner—and frankly, Iger, who had always been a good company man, had given him little reason to think otherwise. He’d been quoted in the press defending Disney’s position in the tortuous Pixar negotiations, and he’d never spent any real time with Steve. But now there was this long pause, and Iger was beginning to hope that, just maybe, Steve was conflicted. “Well,” he finally heard from the other end, “I think I owe you the right to prove that you’re different. If you want to come up and talk about that, then that’s what we should do.”

  • The bricks were manufactured by a single beehive kiln in Washington State, one that Steve’s supplier had reopened solely for the purpose of manufacturing bricks with the specific shades that Steve demanded. A couple of times, when Steve visited the construction site and saw the wall going up with a randomness that he deemed unpleasing, he had asked workers to tear down the wall. Eventually, the construction team figured out an algorithm of sorts to ensure that the bricks were distributed in a “perfectly” random pattern.
    不满意就拆除重做,永远要追求最好
    看上去随机,但并不是真正随机

  • My editors chose not to, in part because the building is not so much a jaw-dropping architectural statement. Its greatest beauty is that it is perfectly suited for its function. “It wasn’t that he was lovingly crafting a beautiful building,” says Ed Catmull. “It’s a higher thing. He was lovingly crafting a place to work in. That’s an important distinction.”
    创造一个能让创意涌现的工作场所,是乔布斯的热情所在

  • Steve’s initial design for the building was minimalist, based mostly on his particular aesthetic taste and his own ideas about how a great building can shape a great office culture. “His theory was very simple,” says John Lasseter. “He believed in the unplanned meeting, in people running into people. He knew how everybody works at Pixar, where you’re one-on-one with your computer. He had the theory of this big atrium that would be able to house the whole company for a company meeting, and that would have everything that gets you out of your office and into that center spine. It would draw you to the center, or have you crossing it, many times a day.” Steve was so set on this idea that he originally proposed that there be no bathrooms in the building’s two wings—there would be just one men’s restroom and one women’s restroom, in the central atrium. Catmull, the most masterful of the many people who had to figure out ways to manage Steve’s idiosyncratic excesses, patiently steered Steve clear of this particularly absurd example of his occasional advocacy of unrealistic means designed to achieve laudable ends. (Steve compromised and allowed bathrooms upstairs as well as in the atrium.)

  • Lasseter and Catmull also resisted the idea of a minimalist, glass-and-steel headquarters. It didn’t fit with either their industrial neighborhood or the rich, colorful, fantastical work being done by Pixar employees. “Pixar is warmer than Apple or NeXT,” says Lasseter. “We’re not about the technology, we’re about the stories and the characters and the human warmth.” They voiced their concern to Tom Carlisle and Craig Paine, the architects Steve had hired for the job. Carlisle and Paine hired a photographer to shoot the brickwork of the lofts in the surrounding neighborhood, and in San Francisco. Then, at the end of one of the days when Steve was working from Pixar’s Point Richmond headquarters, they laid dozens of those photos out on the table of a conference room. “He walked in and I remember him looking at all these beautiful photographs, all the details, and he walked around and around,” remembers Lasseter. “Then he looked at me and he goes, ‘I get it, I get it, you guys are right. John, you’re right.’ He got it, and he became a giant advocate for that look.”
    乔布斯最终还是在苹果实现了他的钢和玻璃的梦想

  • Steve signed the wallpaper: “This is why we built this building, Steve Jobs.”

  • “We called it Steve’s movie,” says Catmull. “This was a labor of love.” Adds Lasseter: “It took the same budget, and the same amount of time as one of our movies, and he was the director. We love it.”

  • “One of the things we lost when Steve died was an external hammer,” says Catmull. “At some point in every film, the director gets lost in the forest. So once or twice a film, I might call Steve up and say, ‘Steve, I think we’ve got a problem.’ That’s all I would say. You never try to tell Steve what to think. I wouldn’t prep him.”

  • “Steve never said anything that hadn’t already been said by one of the other brain trust members, because they’re all really good at the storytelling,” Catmull continues. “But there is something about his presence, and he was so articulate, that he could take the same thing said by somebody else and just cut right through it. He was very careful about how he went about this. Steve would preface it by saying, ‘I’m not a filmmaker, you can ignore everything I say.’ He literally said that every time. He would then just say what he thought the problem was. Right? Only the fact that it was articulate was the gut punch. He didn’t tell them to do anything, he just told them what he thought.

  • “Sometimes,” Catmull says, “if it were a big enough of a gut punch he’d go for a walk with the director. Steve was this incredibly intelligent, strong-willed person who made things happen, but at the same time he enabled people. He was always big on going for walks with people. So he would take the director out on a walk, where you talked more slowly, you think through things … just talking, just a friendly back-and-forth talking. His goal was just to help them make a better movie. It always made it easier for the director to move forward. It wasn’t ever like ‘Oh, you screwed up.’ It was ‘What are we gonna do to move forward?’ The past can be a lesson, but the past is gone. He believed that.”
    难怪乔布斯临死送的最后一本书是禅者的初心

  • This kind of one-on-one mentoring was something Steve learned over time. “Early on, if somebody didn’t measure up Steve wouldn’t hide it,” says Catmull. “That kind of behavior wasn’t something I ever saw during his last ten years. Instead, he would take you off in private, and turn what could have been an embarrassing thing into something that actually became very productive and bonding. He learned; he had taken the mistakes that he made, internalized and processed them, and made some changes.”

  • Steve was more relaxed at Pixar than he was at Apple. “He never tried to make us like Apple,” says Catmull, “or to run us the same way.” Andy Dreyfus, a designer at Pixar who had previously worked at Apple and CKS Group, says that whenever he and his boss Tom Suiter wanted to present something to Steve, they tried to meet him at Pixar. “We were always happy when we had a Friday meeting with Steve,” Dreyfus recalls, “because Friday was the day he was at Pixar, and he was always in a good mood there.”
    老板的周五心灵休息日,哈哈哈

  • Week after week, year after year, Pixar provided Steve with a series of uncomplicated highs. He attended the Oscars regularly, as Pixar accumulated more and more honors. He loved showing friends preview reels from unfinished movies. “Steve was our biggest fan. Every time we did an internal reel, he would want a copy,” remembers Lasseter. “And I’d find out from people I knew, he’s showing it to every neighbor at his house. Hey, everybody—come see this! He loved it. He was like a kid.”

  • After delivering Monsters Inc. in 2002, Pixar was free to start negotiations with any studio for a new distribution pact. Catmull and Lasseter wanted to continue with Disney, since the company owned the rights to all the Pixar characters they’d created, and since Pixar’s films had done so well with Disney as distributor. Steve hoped Eisner would call to open negotiations, but Eisner chose to wait him out. He believed he would be able to negotiate a better deal after the release of Finding Nemo. He’d seen two previews at Pixar, and, as he wrote Disney’s board of directors, in a memo that was leaked to the Los Angeles Times, “It’s okay, but nowhere near as good as their previous films.” Eisner, of course, was dead wrong. Finding Nemo became one of Pixar’s most beloved films and grossed $868 million around the world.
    难怪乔布斯称他Evil

  • Now Steve laid out a set of aggressive terms: in return for distributing Pixar movies, Disney would get 7.5 percent of the box-office gross—and nothing else. It would have no ownership of the new characters. No ownership of the films. No DVD rights. At the same time, Steve went public with his dissatisfaction with Disney, harping on the creative excellence of Pixar versus the forgettable disasters that were being released by Disney Animation: Treasure Planet, Brother Bear, and Home on the Range.
    这个条款好侮辱迪斯尼!

  • The negotiations caused Catmull and Lasseter no end of distress. “He had stayed at the negotiating table with Disney largely for me,” says Lasseter, “because of how much I cared about the characters we had created.” As the months dragged on, things just seemed to get worse and worse. Steve believed that Eisner leaked his demands to the press in an effort to make him seem greedy. In early January 2004, things seemed to reach an endpoint: Jobs told Lasseter and Catmull that Pixar would no longer negotiate with Disney. He would not work with Eisner. Not now. Not ever. “It was the worst day of my life,” says Lasseter, who, besides facing the loss of all his old characters, was now facing the prospect that Cars, which he was just finishing up, would also belong to Disney, and to a CEO who had visited Pixar just twice since the original deal was signed. Lasseter cried as he, Catmull, and Jobs announced the impasse to the Pixar staff, and he swore that the company would never again make a movie without owning the characters.
    可恶,中途泄漏条款

  • Steve watched all this unfold with glee, especially since his threat to take Pixar elsewhere had helped undermine Eisner. He had never had anything against Disney, after all; it was just Eisner he couldn’t stand.

  • When Steve returned from his postoperative convalescence in the fall of 2004, he told Catmull and Lasseter that he wanted to find a way to ensure that Pixar would be in good shape even if he wasn’t around. It wasn’t that he feared an imminent death. But as he pondered a future in which he might have to further pare down his responsibilities, he knew that Pixar would survive without him more easily than Apple. It wouldn’t be easy. Steve always believed that he, Catmull, and Lasseter worked like a three-man version of the Beatles, complementing one another’s strengths while making up for individual weaknesses. The prospect of operating without Steve made Catmull nervous. “He wasn’t a [film] director, or anything like that. It wasn’t so much the creative side that would be hurt,” says Catmull. “But I’m not really a public CEO kind of person. It’s just not who I am. So if he goes, then we are actually missing a key component.”
    乔布斯判断还是很准确的,皮克斯没他还是能很好地生存,但苹果没有他会失去灵魂

  • Pixar seemed to have three options: find a new distributor and enter into an unproven relationship; build its own distribution arm, which would have entailed a massive investment of money and people to create a service that neither Catmull nor Lasseter really wanted to manage; or stay with Disney—which in fact was not an option so long as Eisner was CEO. The choices seemed even more dire given that the first two scenarios would mean that Disney, not Pixar, would own the characters from all the movies that Lasseter and his team had created under the old contract.
    皮克斯本质上是制作公司,和音乐唱片公司是一样的,他们擅长制作故事、发现优秀的创意,但分发或者广告不是他们的擅长
    而迪斯尼,不仅仅是制作,还非常善于分发、运营、商业化
    这其实和当今的游戏行业非常像,你需要制作出很好的游戏,还需要成功发行、运营、商业化,持续给它生命力

  • Disney had the theme parks, where Pixar characters lived on in new ways. It had the proven distribution network that had successfully launched every Pixar movie. And its name was still magical for Catmull and Lasseter, who grew up dreaming of joining the great animators from Disney’s fabled past. “I knew right from the very beginning that Steve’s long-term game plan was to sell to Disney,” says Catmull, even though Steve never overtly acknowledged this to him. “I never had any question about it. He was doing all this stuff, and playing these games, but I knew that was the long-term game plan.”

  • For three years, Steve displayed remarkable patience as he waited out Eisner. His public attitude put pressure on the Disney CEO, since his directors couldn’t see any way to secure Pixar with him still at the helm. But behind the scenes, Steve made sure that his public ire did nothing to harm the working relationship between the companies. “We were working hard to maintain a good relationship with Disney,” Catmull remembers. “When Eisner was going through his war with Roy Disney, a book was being written, [Disney War, by James B. Stewart, which was eventually published in January 2006]. Steve said, ‘Whatever we do, we don’t talk. We don’t know what’s going to happen, so they get nothing from us for the book.’ So there is nothing that came from us, because Steve didn’t want any ill will towards us at Disney.
    商业好残酷

  • “With things like this,” Catmull adds, “you connect a few dots and you figure, okay, I know what this means. And then the war finally comes to an end, and they bring in Bob Iger.”
    高级商业教程
    向乔布斯学习

  • One month after their first phone call, he called Steve with an idea: What if there were a way for consumers to have access to view all kinds of TV episodes, both current and past, on Macs or PCs or other kinds of devices? Couldn’t Apple do for the television industry what it had done for the music industry, and become, in essence, the retail outlet for TV? Iger said he knew the idea was fraught with complexity, but that he would love the opportunity to discuss it with Steve.
    原来串媒体播放这个点子,Iger也有贡献

  • At one point they considered having Disney sell back to Pixar the right to make sequels, in return for a 10 percent equity stake in Pixar. But Iger called it off. “It was a one-sided deal,” he remembers. “I’d get an announcement that the relationship is continuing, but the actual relationship wouldn’t have been good for Disney’s bottom line. We wouldn’t own the intellectual property, we’d have basically a silent ownership in Pixar, and we’d have done nothing to fix Disney Animation.”

  • A few weeks later, Steve visited Iger at Disney’s headquarters in Burbank. “I’ve got something to show you,” he told Iger, and pulled one of the first video iPods out of his pocket. “Would you really consider putting your TV shows on this?” he asked. “I’m up for that,” Iger replied without missing a beat. He secured the deal even faster than Steve had won Bill Gates’s investment in Apple back in 1997. Iger became CEO on October 1, and by October 5 Apple had a deal to sell downloads of Desperate Housewives, Lost, and Grey’s Anatomy episodes from the iTunes store for viewing on iPods. The two made the announcement on the stage of an Apple event a week later. “He was blown away that, one, I would even do this,” says Iger. “Two, that we could make a deal in five days without Disney lawyering it to death. Three, that I would have, I don’t know, the presence to go on his stage with Steve Jobs, even though Disney had been the mortal enemy in some ways.”

  • That October, Iger also asked his board of directors to allow him to explore the outright purchase of Pixar. As he recalls it, “This was my first meeting as CEO, and I hadn’t been the absolute choice of everyone in the room. I looked around and they were all a little taken aback. A third didn’t know what to say, a third were really intrigued, and a third thought this was ridiculous, but since it’s never going to happen anyway, let him go ahead.” A couple of days after the MacWorld event, Iger called Steve. “I said, ‘I’ve got a crazy idea. Maybe Disney should just buy Pixar outright.’ Steve paused, and then he said, ‘That might not be the craziest idea in the world. And anyway, I like crazy ideas. Let me think about it!’ He called me back a couple of days later.”

  • Iger and Steve were now speaking just about every day, and their relationship was building into one of mutual respect. Iger was pleasantly surprised by Steve’s honesty—his primary source on the Apple CEO had been Michael Eisner, who had painted a somewhat less than flattering picture. Steve, meanwhile, began to realize that Iger was smart, as well as straightforward, a combination that Steve appreciated, according to Catmull. Iger was a welcome change from Eisner, who Steve had found plenty smart but deeply political and evasive. At the very beginning of the negotiation, Iger simply laid his cards on the table. “My wife told me that the average tenure of a CEO is three and a half years,” he told Steve. “Mine will be less unless I fix Animation, and getting there goes through you. I’ve got a problem; you’ve got a solution. Let’s get this done.”
    好直接的对话

  • Steve asked Lasseter and Catmull to come visit him at his home in Palo Alto. When they showed up, he wasted no time dropping his bomb. “I’m thinking about selling Pixar to Disney,” he explained, before laying out the reasons he was now considering such a move. He revealed that, as part of the deal, the two of them would have to run Disney Animation as well as Pixar. “If you guys say no, we’re not going to do it. But the only thing I ask of you is that you get to know Bob Iger.”
    乔布斯作风还是挺挺兄弟的,卖NeXT是否让Avie能当老大,卖Pixar又能让Catmull当老大

  • “We sat and talked until the wee hours,” Lasseter remembers. “We talked about the importance of Disney Animation, the importance of bringing it back. I told him all I could see was the risk of dividing my time, and he said, ‘Well, I look at it the other way. I see it as giving you a bigger canvas because I think you can handle it.’

  • Just as Steve had, Lasseter and Catmull grew comfortable with Iger, and as they talked over the deal with Steve they came to see other benefits. Being part of Disney would mean that Pixar would be protected in ways it couldn’t as a stand-alone public company. “Our board,” says Lasseter, “did amazing due diligence. They told us that having one hit per year for a decade going forward was already built in to our valuation. And since the shareholders, whom the board represented, would always want growth, eventually that one-movie-per-year model was not going to cut it. We would have to start making television shows, or many more movies a year.” It did seem, he decided, that the best way for Pixar to cement into place the way of life it loved was to sell itself to the company it had battled for so long.

  • Iger did his own personal due diligence, of course. One day he flew up to Pixar, for a series of one-on-one meetings with the directors of Pixar’s next few movies. “We had only had one movie, Cars, left to distribute,” he recalls, “and people within Disney had spent months pooh-poohing the idea for the next movie, about a rat in a restaurant in Paris. So I go up to Emeryville, and for six or seven hours the directors pitch me every single upcoming movie. I see a couple of movies that they didn’t wind up making [one called Newt, and the other an unnamed Lee Unkrich project about dogs in a New York City apartment building]. I also see work in progress from Ratatouille, Up, Wall-E. Disney hadn’t seen any of this, and I went back to my guys—including Alan Braverman, the general counsel—and told them that it wasn’t even close. The richness of the creativity, the quality of the people, was so obvious. We had to do this deal.”

  • With Lasseter and Catmull feeling more comfortable, Steve homed in on the final details of a deal. He didn’t overreach by demanding an exorbitant premium over Pixar’s market value. Believing that Pixar might someday be purchased, investors had already overvalued Pixar with a very high market capitalization of around $5.9 billion. Steve and Iger settled on a price of $7.4 billion. They agreed that Pixar and Disney would get equal billing on every film. They even agreed to a side deal that Catmull and Lasseter had proposed: To ensure that Disney wouldn’t change the culture of Pixar, Iger agreed that his company would never change or cancel any of seventy-five items on a list of Pixar cultural touchstones that Lasseter drew up. The list protected the cereal bar in the dining room, the annual paper airplane contest, the employee car show, the right of animators to do whatever they like to their office spaces, and so on.
    公司估值,成绩

  • Iger knew that the price he had paid could not be justified by any conventional reasoning. “There wasn’t an analysis in the world that would make the deal pencil out,” he says. But he argued to the Disney board of directors that the deal had more potential than could be captured by the numbers: if Catmull and Lasseter could revive Disney Animation, and if both studios, rather than Pixar alone, were creating memorable characters, the ancillary revenue from theme parks, merchandise, and other divisions could soar. “All the way back to Walt’s time,” says Iger, “Disney has been most successful in terms of its bottom line and its reputation when animation has been strong.”

  • Iger also knew that many so-called experts thought he was nuts for inviting Steve Jobs to join the board of directors as Disney’s biggest shareholder. “Many people who were deeply involved in the process told me that bringing Steve in as the biggest shareholder was the dumbest thing I could do,” Iger remembers. “I won’t name names, but one of the investment bankers we used told me that. He said, ‘You’re a brand-new CEO who’s going to try to run Disney. Jobs is going to be in your life at a level that will drive you crazy. You don’t have the clout to fight that. If you want to run this company in an unfettered way, don’t do this.’ ” Iger trusted his gut. “Steve and I had talked about the fact that he was going to take all stock, and hold it. I knew there was some risk in letting him into the tent. On the other hand, I had a good relationship with him, and I felt I could benefit from having Steve Jobs around. And if for some reason it didn’t work out for me, Disney would still have Steve Jobs and that would be a great thing.”

  • Like many others, Bill Gates was astounded by what Steve had been able to negotiate. “When he has the upper hand, he’s good at using time,” says Gates. “You know, he would wait people out. Just look at how much of the resulting company ends up being owned by this fairly small—and yes, very high tech, very brilliant—animation studio. They end up owning a very substantial percentage of the entire Disney-ABC-ESPN entity. It’s owned by a little animation studio! That took three rounds of negotiations, and by the time the acquisition is being done, Disney is just flat on its back saying, ‘Take me.’ Because of the political dynamics of Disney at the time, they needed that win, and Steve knew they needed it.”
    把握时机

  • Selling Pixar to Disney was a singular triumph. Steve had gotten Lasseter and Catmull the corporate parent they needed for their unique institution to thrive for decades. He’d even put the two of them in a position to revive the greatest animation studio of all time, Disney. And he’d done all this by developing, in the space of less than a year, a trusting relationship, in fact a friendship, with the man who’d been the go-to executive for one of the two people he most detested. Compare this with the wary antipathy Steve displayed during the NeXT/IBM negotiations, and you realize just how much Steve had changed over the intervening years.
    如果乔布斯自己不生病,他应该不会愿意卖掉迪斯尼

  • He says, “I’m telling you because I’m giving you a chance to back out of the deal.”
    So I look at my watch, and we’ve got thirty minutes. In thirty minutes we’re going to make this announcement. We’ve got television crews, we’ve got the board votes, we’ve got investment bankers. The wheels are turning. And I’m thinking, We’re in this post Sarbanes-Oxley world, and Enron, and fiduciary responsibility, and he is going to be our largest shareholder, and I’m now being asked to bury a secret. He told me only two people know this. Laurene and his doctor. He told me, “My kids don’t know. Not even the Apple board knows. Nobody knows, and you can’t tell anybody.”

  • I have to make a decision sitting on this bench with him whether I can even go through with this deal. I don’t even know. So I took a chance, and I said, “You’re our largest shareholder, but I don’t think that makes this matter. You’re not material to this deal. We’re buying Pixar, we’re not buying you. We’re going to hype the fact that you become the largest shareholder, but that’s not how you value the deal. You value the deal on the assets of Pixar.”

  • The two men walked back into the building, the one that Catmull and Lasseter would name the Steve Jobs Building after his death. Iger had just sworn himself to secrecy, but he felt he had to tell Braverman. He felt he needed a second opinion. Braverman quickly agreed that Disney could go ahead with the deal. Steve went off to find Lasseter and Catmull and brought them into his office. He put his arms around the two of them. As Catmull explains, “He looked at us and said, ‘Are you guys good with this? If you say no, I’ll send them away right now.’ And we both said we were okay, and Steve just started weeping. We just held each other for the longest time. He loved this company.”
    乔布斯可能是因为自己没法更长久陪伴这家公司,而哭泣吧

  • “The problem was that Ed and I had gone through this three-month journey of getting to know Bob Iger, doing our due diligence, and eventually realizing this was the right decision to do,” Lasseter recalls. “But everybody else in the company was in the same place we had been when Steve first mentioned the idea to us, of ‘How can you do this?’ Standing up in front of them in that moment was very hard. This gasp went through the crowd, like, ‘Oh my God.’ I’ll never forget [A Bug’s Life producer] Katherine Sarafian sitting down right in the front, just weeping when Steve said it.”

  • Before the deal had been announced, Steve had talked to Laurene about revealing his secret to Iger. They both felt that it was the right thing to do, given the magnitude of the sale. Their discussions had revolved around a single question: Could Steve really trust Iger to keep the secret? Steve told her they could. “I love that guy,” he told Laurene.

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BG投资十问(Baillie Gifford)

  1,公司是否能正面推动经济、社会或者文化发 展? 如果做不到,BG可能就不会再往下看了。比如军火、赌博类公司再便宜,BG不会去看。 2,公司销售额在5年之内能否翻倍? 为什么要讨论销售额?因为BG关注公司成长,销售额是比较简单直观的指标,而利润可有一些方法调节。所以,BG主要先关注销售额,再看现金流。 3,公司5年之后会怎么样? 这是未来5到10年或者5到15年的中间维度,一是看公司的成长空间究竟还有多大,二是考虑5年之后,公司的短期估值会不会下降,会不会变得成熟。 4,公司的竞争优势到底是什么?随着时间会变 强还是变弱? BG认为,如果公司的竞争优势是不断变弱的,将来在更远期挣回现金流的可能性就更低了。 5,公司是否有非常独特的文化?文化是否能够进化? 毕竟要投资这么长时间,对创始人和公司管理文化是非常关注的。特别喜欢创始人领导的公司,而不是说创始人什么都不干,创始人在做房地产,找了一些人在做新公司,要尽量避免这样的公司。 谈到进化在BG看来,大部分公司都会有大公司病,需要看它怎么能维持比较灵活的管理,变大之后还能够保持非常快速的成长,比如亚马逊的day one文化(注:就是始终处在 创业启动状态,充满迷茫和压力,但是充满创造力和颠覆思想 )。 6,公司过去的回报率怎么样? 一方面是考虑到公司的ROE(净资产收益率),二是考虑公司的Margins(利润),看它的过去是不是值得投资,如果每年ROE都不到10个点,可能长期来看也没什么意思。 7,ROE能不能随着时间增长? 有些公司一开始没有盈利,一直在烧钱,5年之后说不定ROE会到20%或者更高,它是一个动态过程。这样的公司BG也会投资,包括一些早期项目,很多公司都是没有盈利的。 8,公司怎么分配资本? 资本现金流无非就是5种方法:再投资、收购、还债、分红、回购股份,要看公司在某个阶段的资本分配是不是最优的。 如果公司明明可以发展更多,结果乱分红了;或者是明明到了特别成熟的时候,还不愿意分红,都是错误的分配资本。 9,公司怎样才能长成5倍? BG关注的是怎样,而不是能不能。这会强迫BG每个人去设想一些未来的可能性,包括公司现在的底层架构能不能够延伸到更多的业务。 比如,早期的亚马逊或者是阿里,连一个概念都没有,BG会考虑这个公司有没有这种机遇,以后去扩展到可触及的市场。 10,市场对公司有哪些误解,哪些事...

产品随想 | 周刊 第126期:Think of your life as a rainbow arcing across the horizon of this world

FolderPaint   https://github.com/MichaelTr7/FolderPaint Folder colour changing application for macOS. 乔布斯说:“对于我和苹果公司的许多人来说,索尼的盛田昭夫是最大的灵感来源之一。我希望我们今天的所想所为能让他会心一笑。” 乔布斯甚至从索尼挖走了一位顶级设计师。哈特穆特·艾斯林格被苹果挖走前,已在 100 多种索尼产品的创造中发挥了重要作用。 供职于索尼时,艾斯林格所在的设计工作室与管理办公室和工厂车间享有同等地位。他说,这样有助于促进公司生产和设计团队之间在一定程度上达成团结,这正是乔布斯试图重建的团结。 艾斯林格指出:“乔布斯有能力洞察事物的好坏,却不知道如何实现以及如何通过组织去构建。因此,我们向苹果提出的第一个建议是,赋予设计师一定的话语权。” 斯卡利表示,乔布斯和盛田之间的深厚友谊和相互敬重可以归结为对于设计的共同热忱。 “他们以非常积极的方式产生了共鸣”,斯卡利说,“两位来自不同文化背景的创始人共聚一堂,这是非常难能可贵的。他们讨论设计原则,却从不谈及商业模式。” “Think of your life as a rainbow arcing across the horizon of this world. You appear, have a chance to blaze in the sky, then you disappear.” City Lights Bookstore   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Lights_Bookstore?useskin=vector 旧金山的城市之光独立书店 Vesuvio Cafe   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vesuvio_Cafe?useskin=vector 好奇怪,这家Cafe居然没有太多的介绍 “One of the things that I was fortunate of was to see and understand the context of San Francisco through the eyes of Steve Jobs,” Mr. Ive said. “He kn...

产品随想 | 周刊 第68期:Glory to Z-Library

Products Anna’s Archive   https://annas-archive.org/ Search engine of shadow libraries: books, papers, comics, magazines. Z-Library不会消失,只会激励更多 ReVanced Manager   https://github.com/revanced/revanced-manager The official ReVanced Manager based on Flutter. YouTube免广告 Gopeed   https://github.com/monkeyWie/gopeed High speed downloader that supports all platforms. All Platforms,非常霸气,除了iOS,确实都支持了 The Twitter archive   https://github.com/timhutton/twitter-archive-parser Python code to parse a Twitter archive and output in various ways 逃离Twitter Ideas 吴晓波|“我们这是怎么了?”   https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/680826.html 我辈需保持那股企业家的精气神 Worth Moving to Sweden as Engineers?   https://hongchao.me/living-and-working-in-sweden-as-engineers/ 瑞典工作10年的华人工程师,分享自己的看法 Murray Newton Rothbard 默里·罗思巴德   https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/穆瑞·羅斯巴德 米塞斯学生,也是推崇自由主义、开放社会 个人工具箱(2022 年 11 月 16 日更新)   https://github.com/pseudoyu/yu-tools 我的个人工具箱 (设备, macOS 软件, iOS Apps...) Design 2022台北...

产品随想 | 周刊 第127期:晨光只开一刻钟,但比千年松,并无甚不同

Cherry Studio   https://github.com/CherryHQ/cherry-studio Cherry Studio is a desktop client that supports for multiple LLM providers. Support deepseek-r1 Aalto Repository beta   https://repo.aalto.fi/ Images, sounds and videos from Aalto University 这个系列,价值极高 Nokia Design Archive   https://nokiadesignarchive.aalto.fi/ 芬兰这个国家很了不起 对话影石刘靖康:两代未出现划时代的产品,就会沦为平庸的品牌   https://www.geekpark.net/news/308996 还挺喜欢这个创始人的,有一种海盗的内涵 从哈佛、明星创业者到酷家乐副总裁,苏奇的传奇   https://app.modaiyun.com/mdy/article/3FO4K4W0M259 WHO关于猫狗咬伤、抓伤的处理建议 动物咬伤: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/animal-bites 狂犬病: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/rabies 关于狂犬病的10个事实: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/rabies INDIGO 新年直播(2025)   https://www.youtube.com/live/ZIgPvSDGAfY 对2024年AI发展的回顾部分特别好 Artab   https://github.com/get-artab/artab Get Inspired by the World's Greatest Artworks Every Time You Open a New Tab. Extension Available for Chrome, Edge, and...

产品随想 | 周刊 第39期:《自由秩序原理》

Products Exodus   https://github.com/Exodus-Privacy/exodus-android-app Exodus is an Android application that let you know what trackers are embedded in apps installed on your smartphone using the εxodus plateform. It let you also know the permissions required by any apps on your smartphone. 检测你Android机子获取权限、嵌入追踪SDK的 simplewall   https://github.com/henrypp/simplewall Simple tool to configure Windows Filtering Platform (WFP) which can configure network activity on your computer. Mem Reduct Lightweight real-time memory management application to monitor and clean system memory on your computer. 内存清理工具,Windows上挺多这类小工具,很有意思 Squad303   https://1920.in/ 提供大家一个方式,告诉俄罗斯人,乌克兰在发生什么 Chameleon   https://github.com/sereneblue/chameleon WebExtension port of Random Agent Spoofer 帮助隐匿浏览器信息 CanvasBlocker   https://github.com/kkapsner/CanvasBlocker 浏览器指纹识别是丧心病狂 Alpine Linux   https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/Alpine_Linux 以安全为理念的Linux分支 Wirecutter   https://www.nytimes.com...

产品随想 | 张鸣论中国传统政治

原始文章目录 张鸣:皇权不确定性下的统治术——传统中国官场机会主义溯源   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/68897.html 张鸣:从科举制到市场经济转型——官本位的源流及滥觞   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/59273.html 张鸣:权力边界何在,实话空间几许?——论中国政治传统中的权力与真理关系   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/67054.html Insight: 中国自秦汉以来一直是官僚化的帝制结构,虽然皇帝最终要凭借官僚这个中介才能统治国家,但官员的权力来源和合法性依据都是皇权。官僚机器只是帝制的“车轮”。所以,皇帝要怎么样,官员只要迎合,就能获利。只有在皇帝明显违反常识道理、造成重大灾祸之时,官员才可能凭借儒家伦理对皇帝提出批评。理性选择的结果使得官员更多地趋向于顺从皇帝。 ——符合历史以来的感知 中国尽管有两千多年官僚制的传统,但守规矩、遵法制、走程序的现代理性官僚制度却一直都没有建立起来。考试取官的确是理性官僚制的一个重要因素,但中国古代官僚制只是万里长征走完了第一步,然后就再也不走了。隋唐科举制建立的初衷也并非建设官僚体系,而是防止贵族垄断官职,强化君权。科举制度越来越严密,选拔出来的人才也愈发精英化。但是,官僚的行为却没有程式化和规法化。官员的个人行为偏好往往直接影响一地的发展。 ——如何再往前走一步,可以看看新加坡 官员的行为模式往往以皇帝的喜好为风向标。一般来说,皇帝喜欢什么,一个朝代就兴什么。汉初皇帝喜欢黄老,臣子们就清静无为;东汉皇帝喜欢儒生,则臣子们多为经学家;唐初皇帝喜人上书言事,则多诤谏之徒;到晚唐,皇帝喜欢佛教了,则多礼佛之士;清代嘉庆之后,皇帝提倡节俭,带头穿补丁衣服,则满朝文武衣服上都打了补丁,有的补丁比衣服本身还贵。 ——Interesting 皇帝行为的不确定性,势必导致官员行为无法程序化、规范化,而皇帝行为的不确定往往是由统治术决定的,属刻意为之。多数王朝都外儒内法,崇尚权术,甚至迷信权术。秦始皇和丞相李斯之间,有过一个小故事。李斯随从车马过盛,很是招摇,皇帝看了不高兴。随行的宦官就把这事告诉了李斯,李斯于是轻车简从,低调起来。秦始皇马上知道身边有人泄密,又审不出来,于是把当时在身边的人都杀...

信息流的初衷是节省用户时间

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nMZzLkEe7Cfk6Wu5560m9w 讲述信息流前世今生,讽刺的是信息流发展之初是为了让用户在短时间内找到最需要自己关注的内容,现在却成为消磨时间、捕捉用户兴趣的一个作用。

A Tribute to a Great Artist: Steve Jobs

  Steve Jobs, who died October 5 after resigning in August as CEO of Apple, the company he co-founded, had many talents. But what set him apart from other computer wizards was his artistic sense. He continually used the word “taste” in explaining what was ready to be manufactured at Apple, and what wasn’t ready yet—what he had to reject. The Apple computer, the iPhone, the iPad and the iPod are all strikingly beautiful objects; the clarity of their visual design matches the way they function. It’s clear that Steve Jobs was an artist and that his artistry worked at many levels: it was a visual sensitivity that extended outward to a way of thinking about how things worked and how different variables could interact with each other in a pleasing harmony. Where did this ability come from? Jobs gave some credit for his success to a seemingly unlikely source—a course on calligraphy that he took as an undergraduate at Reed College, a course established by a maverick profes...

巴菲特致股东信-1969年

 编者笔记: 巴菲特正式清算合伙人企业。 我把它们视为实业,而非股票,如果长期而言实业的业绩良好,那么股票也会有着同样的表现。 我不想解散一个雇佣了1100人的生意,尤其在管理层已经在努力改善公司相对整体行业的表现,而且也取得了合理结果的时候,同时该业务目前尚不需要额外的资本投入。 但是如果未来我们面临需要投入大量资本,或者该业务遭受相当程度的损失时,我将做出不同的决定。 原文: 1969 年 5 月 29 日 致合伙人: 大概在 18 个月以前,我曾经给你们致信,认为投资环境和我个人情况的变化将导致我对我 们未来业绩预期做出调整。 我当时所讨论的投资环境 ,已经变得更加的恶劣且令人沮丧 。也许我仅仅是缺乏从精神层面 进行调整的能力。(正如一位评论家对超过 40 岁的证券分析师所评价的那样:“他们知道太 多如今已不再适用的东西 。”) 虽然如此,就我看来: (1) 在过去的二十年中,对于数量(定量)分析方法所能把握的机会 之水已经逐渐干涸 ,到今天可以说是已经完全枯竭了 ;( 2 )我们的资金基数已经达到一个亿 , 也就是说不超过三百万的投资量对于我们净资产的影响几乎可以忽略不计 ,实际上我们的投 资标的的市值已经不能低于一亿美元 ;( 3 )大量地对于投资的专注已经导致市场的交易行为 变得极度追求短期的利润,市场的投机性大大增加。 在 1967 年 10 月的信中我亦提到个人境遇的变化是我调整我们未来收益预期的最重要的原 因。我表达了自己不想再在合伙公司上注入我 100% 的精力的愿望。然而在过去的 18 个月 中我完全没有做到这一点。我曾经写到 :“希望随着预期的降低,我的对此投入的个人努力 也可以随之降低 。”然而实际上完全不是这样,我发现只要我一天还在管理合伙企业,我就 完全无法让自己投入到其它与之无关的东西上去。我不想让自己成为一个永远管理着资金 , 追逐着投资收益的疯狂的兔子,而唯一让我放缓脚步的办法,就是将其停止。 所以,在年底之前,我希望所有的有限合伙人都能正式地得知我的退休愿望。 1969 年 10 月 9 日 致合伙人: 以下是接下来我认为对于我的退休将要涉及的事情: ( 1 )向你们介绍一下 Bill...