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产品随想 |《沸腾新十年》2018年: 超级大年


  • 北京素来被视作“便利店的荒漠”,有人戏称:“在北京,找便利店比找对象还难。”北京的便利店为什么这么少?有人把原因总结为“3个半”:半年——北京冬季太冷,市民们无事不愿意出门,而是选择宅在家里(实际是3~4个月——编辑注);半边——北京马路宽阔且中间有隔离带,所以只有半条路的生意;半天——北京居住、工作、商业三个区域分得非常明确,商业区的便利店只能做白天生意,住宅区的便利店则只能做夜间生意。
    ──这是否从另个侧面说明,北京这个城,缺乏活力?

  • 长沙、福州、合肥,这些生活气息浓郁的城市,是社区创业者们的福地。
    ──中国城市多样性太大

  • 在饿了么的投资人中,红杉资本作为饿了么和美团双方的股东,是最早力主两家合并的。甚至在阿里巴巴投资饿了么之前、美团和大众点评合并之后,红杉资本还推动了一个饿了么与美团外卖业务进行合并的方案,由饿了么团队主导。但这个方案并没有得到美团的认可,王慧文甚至与红杉资本某位合伙人拍起了桌子。

而其他的投资又分财务投资和阿里巴巴这样的战略投资。财务投资人对合并的态度其实很简单,就是能合尽量合。但在饿了么吃下百度外卖后,财务投资人的态度有所转变,觉得合不合无所谓,因为饿了么坐稳了两强之一,就算不合并,美团也无法消灭饿了么,所以单独发展也能独立赚钱。但对阿里巴巴来说,在美团和大众点评合并后,美团和饿了么是不能合并的。

既然饿了么不会卖给美团,新投资人还要考虑的是,如果阿里巴巴把口碑给了饿了么,那么自己是否有否决权?口碑当时估值很高,如果阿里巴巴和饿了么管理层达成共识,饿了么的财务投资人基本上就相当于出局了。所以新的投资人希望能够在这个条款上限制阿里巴巴,但阿里巴巴坚决不同意。

在这种情况下,新投资人和老股东(主要是阿里巴巴)没法谈拢,于是饿了么的融资就进入了一个死局。

既然融不到新股东的钱,那么饿了么可以独立上市吗?当时,美团在香港上市的进程已经启动,也就是说,一个业务比自己略强的对手已抢先资本运作,这对饿了么来说不是好事。同时,阿里巴巴是不希望饿了么独立上市的。

既然融不到钱,独立上市的希望也很渺茫,那么,能不能让阿里巴巴这个老股东继续投钱呢?

当时阿里巴巴内部对饿了么的态度稍显复杂,一部分人认为应该继续给饿了么钱,与美团对抗;另一部分人觉得如果饿了么还是张旭豪团队主导,那么继续给钱有可能鸡飞蛋打,不如把饿了么收进来与整个阿里巴巴协同,但以什么价钱收进来是个问题。可见,阿里巴巴当时的态度是既不积极做下一轮投资,也不主动推动收购。
──商场都是较量,阿里巴巴是搅屎棍

  • 这个时候,作为对手的美团适时地上演了“神助攻”——听闻饿了么要出售的消息,王慧文主动参与竞价。美团的出现让饿了么的出售再起波澜,阿里巴巴和美团也围绕饿了么竞相抬价。最终,美团抬到了90亿美元。
    ──王慧文对商业的认知,真实太厉害了

  • 对于饿了么的最终出售价,公开的说法是95亿美元,但作为当事人的张旭豪的答案是100亿美元。因为饿了么在出售前,向阿里巴巴借了近5亿美元。
    张旭豪也由此成为创办市值百亿美元公司的“85后”第一人。
    ──百亿美金!百亿美金!

  • 哈啰单车避摩拜和ofo之锋芒,主要布局二三线城市,也更符合阿里巴巴推广移动支付的需求。这一切瞒得过戴威,却瞒不过马化腾,在阿里巴巴完成对哈啰单车的投资后,他便在朋友圈点评:“被当作支付的推广工具,可怜的小股东被锁死。”
    ──一眼看透阿里巴巴本质(经历过如此多的案件,对阿里巴巴的投资,永远要保持小心)

  • 总体来说,《沸腾新十年》的观点是,二手车电商在本书付梓之时,还没有形成一个足够清晰、理想的成本结构和商业模式。这一点,无论是杨浩涌、戴琨、姚军红,还是李健,都无法否认。
    ──二手车电商,怎么【规模化】的赚钱,并没有人想明白

  • 在2015年以前,谈起链家,曾熙的口气是充满不屑的。他说:“我们始终强调用互联网的方式改造这个行业。从一些显性的数据可以看出,比如说现在链家在全国有15万人,房多多一共只有3000人,链家的15万人中99%是经纪人,我们的人当中有30%是做产品、技术、研发的。我们人均创造业绩的效率是链家的十倍甚至百倍。这就是两家公司之间很重要的基因区别。房多多发展到1万亿元销售额的时候,也不会成为一个万人企业。

  • 在实操中,二手房买卖是一个复杂的过程,经纪人的服务分布在房源和客源两端。其中,房源端可细分为录入、维护、实勘等;客源端则分为带看、成交和金融服务等。在传统意义上,这些事情其实都由一个经纪人包办,或者说尽可能由一个经纪人包办,因为只有包办,经纪人才能尽可能多地涉足各个环节,从而获得较高的分佣比例。

  • 有很多人认为,贝壳就是链家,链家就是贝壳。
    但业内人士的认知则相反,诸葛找房北京区总经理甘放认为:“链家太大,太复杂了。这样一个有太多历史负载的企业是没法上市的,所以只有去链家化,剥离优质资产,快速聚焦方向,讲一个人们都能懂的故事,才有上市的可能。”

  • 贝壳一年的营业额是460亿元。行业里中介费的中位数大概是成交价的2%。由此可以推算,贝壳在2019年的总销售额大约是2.3万亿元,相当于两个碧桂园加上一个万科的2019年总销售额。

  • 在转转接受腾讯投资后,有一次CEO黄炜跟张小龙聊天,张小龙顺便给小程序打了一个广告,让转转赶紧上小程序。当时小程序推出不到半年,普及程度还不够显着,但是张小龙这么低调的人都在主动给小程序打广告,黄炜觉得可以试一试。他问张小龙:小程序是不是和二维码一样,可以打通线上、线下?张小龙回答:小程序要做的事情是让未来的微信里没有H5。
    ──体验角度看:H5体验确实差于小程序;商业角度看:干掉H5换成小程序,微信得以控制里面的网页生态

  • 经历坎坷的米雯娟在工作中比谁都拼。早期投资人创新工场的合伙人张丽君回忆,和米雯娟约见面,时间总是很奇怪,如早上7点——因为8点还有个会。董事会都要到夜里9点才召开,一直开到凌晨2点;而在办公室聊到夜里11点也是常事,那时候“每个会议室都还是满满的”。米雯娟用自己的勤奋带动整个团队,从来没有出现过战术层面的懒惰。
    ──老板如此努力

  • VIPKID做起了最早的Teacher Referral(教师转介绍)。陈媛的思路是,老师的同事是老师,老师的朋友很多也是老师,为什么不发动他们去招人?
    根据VIPKID公布的数据,其北美外教数量从0到突破2万经历了3年半的时间。其中2016年年底,VIPKID外教数量仅为5000名,2017年4月突破1万名,4个月后涨到2万名,3个月后又涨到3万名,其中75%是通过Teacher Referral进入的。
    ──B端供给侧的裂变,跟滴滴司机招募,其实差不多

  • 本书作者曾经访问B轮领投方北极光的林路,VIPKID做得最正确的事是什么?林路给出的回答是,他们在没有很多钱的情况下投放了4000万元人民币的广告,抢占了品牌即品类的窗口期。这正是张月佳加入VIPKID后的成名首秀。
    ──“品牌即品类”,新浪微博──>微博,同理

  • 本书作者采访了一位在VIPKID工作过的资深产品专家。他给出的数据是,VIPKID每个用户平均付费12 000元左右,其中8000元用来做广告,剩下的4000元,一半用于支付外教成本,一半用来维持VIPKID自身的运转。
    ──广告成本太高了,跟化妆品打广告有的一拼

  • 每年寒暑假,在线教育公司在腾讯和字节系投放高达几十亿元的广告,这样不计成本“烧钱”,导致获客成本越来越高,甚至现金流随时可能断裂。这是互联网教育行业公开的秘密。
    ──这也说明了为啥重拳打击教育后,其它非教育行业的互联网公司,日子也不好过,毕竟这么大笔广告费,心疼我的腾讯

  • 但如果我们回顾数据,就不难找出VIPKID愿意疯狂获客的原因。广发证券曾经在2017年公布一份研究报告。这份报告称,VIPKID在7月底宣布有20多万名付费学员,实际数字应为26.7万。而且,如果要在年底实现50亿元营收目标,VIPKID需要在剩下5个月里维持95%的续费率,并完成15万的付费学员净增长数。这样来看,平均每月付费学员需要增加3万名,相当于600%的增长率。但VIPKID只公布外教和学员数量,营收情况则相对不透明。
    ──获客成本如此高昂的原因在于:心急,希望在短时间内,获得超大规模
    但我理解,教育并不是一件可以大规模,追求速度的动作(不想娱乐App抖音的获客,可以通过加广告,打到很快)

  • 刘炽平在安慰米雯娟后,从组织、经营等多个方面帮VIPKID算了账,指出了很多流血点,并直接表示这些流血点都是可控的。
    回忆起这件事时,米雯娟不禁赞叹:“这就是卓越的CEO和新CEO的区别!”
    但是,刘炽平当时也确实提出,希望VIPKID在投资方面能够降低预期。
    在遭到米雯娟拒绝后,刘炽平仍然表示腾讯愿意继续投资,并告诉她:“年轻的创业者肯定会有很多经验不足的地方,我们可以帮助你们弥补一些不足。”
    米雯娟至今对此仍然非常感动和感激。
    ──刘炽平,真是腾讯手里一块宝

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Interviewer: what is it about this machine? Why is this machine so interesting? Why has it been so influential? Jobs: Ah ahm, I'll give you my point of view on it. I remember reading a magazine article a long time ago ah when I was ah twelve years ago maybe, in I think it was Scientific American . I'm not sure. And the article ahm proposed to measure the efficiency of locomotion for ah lots of species on planet earth to see which species was the most efficient at getting from point A to point B. Ah and they measured the kilocalories that each one expended. So ah they ranked them all and I remember that ahm...ah the Condor, Condor was the most efficient at [CLEARS THROAT] getting from point A to point B. And humankind, the crown of creation came in with a rather unimpressive showing about a third of the way down...

产品随想 | 周刊 第85期:e-Residency与数字游民

  David Shambaugh   https://www.google.com/search?q=David+Shambaugh 中国问题研究专家,著作极多 郭玉闪   https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/郭玉闪?useskin=vector 中国公共知识分子 我只想好好观影   github.com/BetterWorld-Liuser/autoMovies 刘煜辉:中国资本市场灵魂出窍 最有活力的公司几乎不在A股   https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2017-06-23/doc-ifyhmtek7705574.shtml 回看17年的专家讲话,还是挺有水平的,挺多都认可 纽约文化沙龙   https://www.youtube.com/@user-cu2hl5tf6y/videos 视频质量出奇的高,推荐 透视中国政治by吴国光、程晓农 备忘下,貌似评价挺好的一本书 CAPI China Chair Wu Guoguang (吴国光 / 吳國光)   https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIt1szHhnm_Hso3jGUbfGpnEAbsPOuEVV 因为热爱中国,我们越要看懂中国 AI Canon   https://a16z.com/2023/05/25/ai-canon/ in this post, we’re sharing a curated list of resources we’ve relied on to get smarter about modern AI. We call it the “AI Canon” because these papers, blog posts, courses, and guides have had an outsized impact on the field over the past several years. 希望中国的投資機構,也能有更多的分享與輸出,提升整個社會的認知 Cantonese Font 粵語字體   https://visual-fonts.com/zh/...

产品随想 | 周刊 第127期:晨光只开一刻钟,但比千年松,并无甚不同

Cherry Studio   https://github.com/CherryHQ/cherry-studio Cherry Studio is a desktop client that supports for multiple LLM providers. Support deepseek-r1 Aalto Repository beta   https://repo.aalto.fi/ Images, sounds and videos from Aalto University 这个系列,价值极高 Nokia Design Archive   https://nokiadesignarchive.aalto.fi/ 芬兰这个国家很了不起 对话影石刘靖康:两代未出现划时代的产品,就会沦为平庸的品牌   https://www.geekpark.net/news/308996 还挺喜欢这个创始人的,有一种海盗的内涵 从哈佛、明星创业者到酷家乐副总裁,苏奇的传奇   https://app.modaiyun.com/mdy/article/3FO4K4W0M259 WHO关于猫狗咬伤、抓伤的处理建议 动物咬伤: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/animal-bites 狂犬病: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/rabies 关于狂犬病的10个事实: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/rabies INDIGO 新年直播(2025)   https://www.youtube.com/live/ZIgPvSDGAfY 对2024年AI发展的回顾部分特别好 Artab   https://github.com/get-artab/artab Get Inspired by the World's Greatest Artworks Every Time You Open a New Tab. Extension Available for Chrome, Edge, and...