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产品随想 |《沸腾新十年》2019年:风起新消费


  • 元气森林在合适的发展阶段选择了合适的渠道,拥有一个“618”和“双11”统统不放过,李佳琦、薇娅和罗永浩都在带货,在传统商超也能随时购买的线上线下全覆盖营销体系,最终走完了从“网红”走向成熟品牌的重要一步。
    ──步骤选择,非常出色

  • 究其根本,就是三只松鼠过于紧密地和电商绑定,线下体系建设严重不足,一旦电商开始“收税”,毛利立刻勐降。唐彬森的危机感要强得多,电商、直播、便利店、商超、微商城等无所不至,绝不过度依赖某一个渠道,同时在每个渠道都深耕细作。这可能就是唐彬森这种资本型创业者天生的敏感性带来的一种优势。

  • 和元气森林一样,完美日记走的也是轻量级的OEM、ODM模式。完美日记的三大代工厂为科丝美诗、莹特丽、上海臻臣,与这三者合作的历来都是国际大牌。科丝美诗代工的品牌有迪奥、兰蔻、圣罗兰,莹特丽代工的品牌有阿玛尼、古驰、海蓝之谜,上海臻臣代工的品牌有欧莱雅、雅诗兰黛。
    ──原来底层的代工厂,就是那几家......

  • 《12 000字全面解读完美日记》的作者张希伦写道:“全世界最强的化妆品OEM、ODM工厂几乎都扎根在长三角和珠三角,在为大牌化妆品代工多年后,他们已经非常体系化了,哪怕是快速崛起的国货品牌也可以轻松地站在巨人的肩膀上。”
    ──这种供应链,并没有技术壁垒和上下游联动的优势,会比较轻易的流出中国

  • 而完美日记要成为的欧莱雅,近5年全球专利数量为1368个。可见,以完美日记为代表的美妆国货在核心技术上缺失太多,在核心竞争力上与国际大牌的差距实在太大。

  • 完美日记确实在加大对研发的投入,但依然不够。2020年前9个月,逸仙电商研发费用支出超过4000万元,2019年同期这一数字仅为977万元;研发费用率从0.5%提高到了1.3%(欧莱雅为3%~4%)。

  • 它的营销费用增长更快:从2019年前9个月的8.05亿元提高到了2020年前9个月的20.3亿元,营销费用率从42%提高到了62.2%,远高于上海家化和珀莱雅的40%,以及欧莱雅的30%。
    ──鲜明对比,心疼女孩子们

  • 完美日记与美妆博主的合作,其实和传统企业发布公关稿的思路是类似的。首先将基础内容提供给博主,由博主自己进行二次创造,并将内容转发在完美日记的官方账号上。

不要小看这种看似简单的操作,完美日记的官方账号因此有了取之不尽的优质内容。待到官方账号粉丝数达到一定量后,又能反过来为合作的美妆博主增粉,这样在降低合作成本的同时还拥有了孵化“网红”的条件。一个明证是,完美日记甚至拥有一家可以对外提供服务的小红书MCN机构。
──最后那段MCN真是惊到我

  • 宝洁的核心做法是尽量外置,在所有的关键点上都选择最好的合作伙伴——如最好的广告代理公司、最好的代理商等。而完美日记的做法则是一切内置。根据统计,完美日记对外发布的职位有400种以上,所有可以外包的职位都全部内置,唯一不能内置的就是供应链。
    ──做法倒是跟苹果类似

  • 瑞幸咖啡的内部人士也评价说,如果不是因陆正耀急于收购宝沃汽车,以完成出行生态链的全闭环,瑞幸咖啡就不必以如此激进的速度上市融资,本来完全是一局可以从容下好的慢棋。
    ──陆这个人,给我印象很差,看各种报道,都突出是个不讲商业道德/诚信的人,远离之,并远离他控股的公司/股票

  • 《超市中的原始人》这本书提出了一个很有趣的观点,即消费大体分为两种,第一种是消费给别人看的“地位型消费”,第二种是消费给自己爽的“愉悦型消费”(功能型消费也属于其中一种)。

  • 由于星巴克的示范效应,在瑞幸之前中国已经有无数创业者尝试咖啡创业,其中绝大多数以精品鲜煮为特点,走地位型消费的路径,但失败率高达90%。
    从这个角度来说,瑞幸咖啡必须避免和有西洋文化背景加持的竞争对手在地位型消费市场中对抗,而应该反其道而行之,强调咖啡的功能性价值。
    ──宁可被吐槽Low,也比死去要好

  • 奈雪的经营者是一对夫妇,老板娘叫彭心,长得美丽大气。在2015年年初,她还是深圳一家公司的IT总监,但她想开一家属于自己的“面包+茶饮”店。
    ──会写代码,会做奶茶,厉害的

  • 喜茶的标志性现象是“排队”。微信公众号创业达人分析了这一现象:喜茶单店经常每天有将近2000杯的出杯量,以营业时间12小时来算,平均每分钟要出3杯,高峰期则更多。
    ──20秒1杯......

  • 根据2019年财务数据,泡泡玛特每卖出100元的玩具,其中29元为商品成本,9.2元为支付给员工的薪酬,2.9元支付给艺术家和IP授权商。由此可见,泡泡玛特的规模化生产大大摊薄了IP的创意成本。
    ──它家毛利很客观

  • 盲盒机制不但带来极大的娱乐性,而且给泡泡玛特带来了强大的复购率。招股书信息显示,用户花59元抽一个Molly系列盲盒,泡泡玛特能挣15.8元。但是在盲盒玩法刺激下,只花59元的人是非常少的,泡泡玛特的320万名注册会员中一半以上至少会再抽一次,复购率达到58%。
    ──可怕

  • 中国校服极为统一,篮球鞋成为中学生全身上下最能够彰显个性的地方。

  • 猿辅导的一个关键准备工作是找定位公司用3000万元重金想出“4亿人在用的猿辅导”这句广告语。这句话引发了无穷的质疑,但这个数据的确是根据2013年9月到2019年年底该品牌旗下5款App的用户设备的唯一ID加总去重后统计出来的。把这个数字变成广告语就封杀了同类品牌广告词的升维之路,因为4亿人在用,已经超出人们的认识,对手的广告升无可升。
    ──统计口径有些流氓,居然是7年里的设备ID去重,吓唬圈外人还可以,圈内人根本不信这个数据

  • 据不完全统计,好未来、猿辅导、作业帮三大平台在2019年暑期的招生人数都突破了100万人大关。需要指出的是,2019年暑期在线教育行业首次出现单家公司招生人数突破100万人。三大平台招生人数都突破100万人,至少表示没有哪家明显掉队,也意味着未来的营销之战还未结束。
    ──原来砸这么多广告资源,也仅仅只能打到100万的招生规模,对比人家爱奇艺,1个亿的会员数,不过也不能这么比,爱奇艺的价格低,面向人群广泛多了

  • 在2020年,从表面上看,所有的头部在线教育公司仍然无法摆脱这场圈地之争。据相关负责人透露,在各家都在争夺的战场上,在线教育行业在几家短视频平台上的用户重合度已超过50%,这意味着各家公司都在抢夺同一批用户。而2019年,这个数字还只是25%。
    ──因为教育公司投放效果广告的平台,基本是两微一抖,都是同一群人

  • 以猿辅导为例,其2012—2019年共6年的品牌营销、产品矩阵、市场营销、产品研发及与《最强大脑》的合作等,一共使其获取了1.5亿个用户。而在疯狂投入营销后,仅仅从2019年1月到2020年1月的12个月里,猿辅导的用户就从1.5亿个飙升到4亿个(含免费用户)。其中,注册新用户49元就能享受7天班课服务这样的价格战手段,是增长如此之快的主要原因之一,但也是亏损的原因。
    ──对C端业务来说,砸钱抢进来的用户,如何留住他们,需要非常多的思考

  • 但是,越是执着于大班双师,猿辅导的隐患就越大。这个隐患就在于大班双师课的效果很难保证。有媒体分析指出,猿辅导公开的数据中向来较少提及续费率,说明其模式在用户复购上的弊端已经显现。
    前车之鉴是VIPKID也曾获得投资机构的狂热追捧,但其1对1模式在被证明难言理想后,受挫之大也是超乎想象的。
    ──教育收费模式,和SAAS真的很像,投资人对于续费率的要求,非常高;“短期有路径,长期有优势”同样适用

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