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巴菲特致股东信-1957年

编者笔记:

  • 长期而言,巴菲特将满意于获得高于市场水平10%左右的回报率
  • 巴菲特预计:在熊市的表现会比在牛市要好,在牛市的情况下,我将会满足于取得一个相当于市场平均水平的回报率。

原文:

1957 年证券市场的综合分析

在去年的信中,我写到“我认为目前市场的价格水平超越了其固有的价值 ,这种情况主要反映在蓝筹股上。如果这种观点正确,则意味着市场将来会有所下跌 ——价格水平届时将被低估。虽然如此,我亦同时认为目前市场的价格水平仍然会低于从现在算起五年之后的水平。 即便一个完整的熊市也不见得会对市场价值的固有水平造成伤害 。”

“如果市场的价格水平被低估 ,我们的投资头寸将会增加,甚至不排除使用财务杠杆 。反之我们的头寸将会减少,因为价格的上涨将实现利润,同时增加我们投资组合的绝对量 。”

“所有上述的言论并不意味着对于市场的分析是我的首要工作 ,我的主要动机是为了让自己 能够随时发现那些可能存在的,被低估的股票 。”

去年,股票的价格水平稍有下降。我之所以强调 “稍有下降”,是因为那些在近期才对股票 有感觉的人会认为股票的价格下降的很厉害 。事实上我认为,相对股票价格的下降,上市公 司的盈利水平下降的程度更快一些。换句话说,目前投资者仍然对于大盘蓝筹股过于乐观 。 我并没有想要预测未来市场走势或者是上市公司的盈利水平的意思 ,只是想要在此说明市场 并未出现所谓的大幅下降 ,同时投资价值也仍然未被低估 。我仍然坚持认为 ,从长期的投资 眼光来看,目前的市场仍显昂贵。

我们在 1957 的主要活动

市场的下跌带来了更大的投资机会 ,因此我们的头寸(包括 WORK-OUT 的部分)也相应有 所增加。所谓 WORK-OUT 的部分,是指我们对于公司出售 、合并、清算等活动所进行的投 资。这种投资的风险在于预期的上述活动可能最终没有完成。在 1956 年年末,我们的一半 投资和 WORK-OUT 的比例约为 70/30,目前则为 85/15

去年我们面临投资量达到可能会需要在一定程度上参与公司决策的情况 ,其中之一我们达到 了 10-20%的水平,另外一个我们则拥有 5%的股份(注:估计上述提到的公司是非上市公司 )。

因此这一部分投资将不太会受到市场下跌的影响 ,相信经过三到五年的努力 ,这一部分投资 将会在风险很小的情况下获得良好的回报 。当然,如果市场快速上涨 ,我们也无法从中获益 。

1957 年的结果

1957 年,于 1956 年成立的三个合伙企业的表现超越了市场。年初道琼斯指数为 499 点, 年底则为 435 点,下跌 65 点。考虑股利分红的因素,实际市场下跌了约 42 点或 8.4%。大 部分投资基金的表现并不比市场要好 ,实际上据我所知 ,今年没有任何投资基金获得正收益 。 而我们三个合伙企业在今年分别获得了 6.2%7.8%25%的净资产增长。当然这样的数字 显然会引起一起疑问,尤其对于前两个合伙企业的投资人而言更是如此 。这种情况的出现纯

粹是运气使然。获得最高收益的企业成立的时间最晚 ,正好赶上市场下跌,同时部分股票出 现了较为吸引人的价格。而前两个公司的投资头寸已经较高,因而无法获得这样的好处。

基本上,三个企业的投资标的和投资比例都是大致相同的 。长期而言我将会满意于获得高于 市场水平 10%左右的回报率。对于 1956 年而言,这三个企业都已经超出了这个标准。

对于在 1957 年成立的另外两个合伙企业在 57 年的表现基本跟市场的平均水平差不多 。相信 随着时间的推移,这两个企业的投资绩效也会类似于之前的三个企业。

对于结果的解释

在某种程度上我们之所以可以取得超越市场的表现恰恰是因为今年市场上大部分股票的表 现不好。我预计我们将来在熊市的表现会比在牛市的表现要好 。如果在牛市的情况下,我将 会满足于取得一个相当于市场平均水平的回报率。

1958 2 月 

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