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巴菲特致股东信-1958年

 编者笔记:

  • 资金的比较成本
  • 为了更好的交易,将已知会有好收益的股票,套利卖出。

原文:

1958 年股票市场的总体情况

一个运作中等规模投资信托的朋友最近写到 :浮躁易变的情绪是美国人的主要特征 ,而这一 特征造就了 1958 年股票市场。1958 年的股票市场,用“亢奋”这一词形容最合适。

我觉得这句话——无论从业余角度还是专业角度 ——很好地概括了主导 1958 年股票市场的 心理变化。在过去的一年中,几乎所有的理由都被找出来,以证明市场是可投资的。无疑 , 相对于以前的若干年,现在的投资者队伍中充斥了更多的浮躁人群 。他们持有股票的时间取 决于他们这样的想法:多长时间内企业利润可以快速且毫不费力地实现 。越来越多的此种人 群加入投资大军,股票价格不断地被抬高。虽然不太可能预测这种现象会持续多长时间 ,但 是我相信:这些人群造访的时间越长,他们退出的动能也会越大。

我无意于预测股票市场 ,我主要的精力是寻找被低估的证券 。公众普遍相信 ,他们一定可以 从股票投资中获利。然而,我深信这种信仰将最终导致麻烦 。如果发生,被低估的证券价格 (依我看而不是其内在价值)也将无可避免会受到实质影响。

1958 年的经营结果

在我去年的信中,我曾写道:

“我们的业绩,相对而言,可能熊市中表现比牛市中表现更好。因此,能有以上的结果 ,主 要还是我们处在应当表现相对好的一年 。如果哪一年市场总体有一个比较大的涨幅 ,能够赶 上平均水平我就已经非常满意了 。”

后句正巧是对 1958 年这一年的描述,我的预测成为了现实。道琼斯工业平均指数从 435 点 上升到 583 点,再加上 20 个点的红利,总体收益水平是 38.5%。整年运作的五个合伙企业 获得了比 38.5%略高的平均收益率。1957 年底至 1958 年底的一年时间中,他们以市场价值 计算的收益率在 36.7%46.2%之间。考虑到事实上有相当一部分资产已经且仍然投资于从 快速上涨的市场得益甚少的证券之中 ,我相信这些结果是相当好的 。我仍然预测我们的投资 结果在下跌或盘整的市场中将高于平均水平,但是在上升的市场中我们所能做的仅是跟上 。

一个典型的状况

为了更好地理解我们的操作方法,我想我最好回顾一下 1958 年具体运作。去年我提到我们 最大持股约占我们各个合伙人企业资产的 10%-20%。我得指出,我非常乐意这只股票的价 格是下跌的或者是保持稳定 ,这样我们就可以建立更大的头寸 。正是这个原因 ,这只股票也 许会在牛市中拖累我们的相对表现。

这只股票是位于新泽西的 Commonwealth Trust Co. of Union City。我们开始购买这只股票时 , 保守计算,它的内在价值是每股 125 元。然而,尽管每股收益达到 10 元,它却有充分理由 没有作任何现金分红。其中最大的理由是其被压低的价格仅有每股 50元。我们拥有一个管 理良好并且具有较强盈利能力的银行 ,但是交易价格远远低于其内在价值 。管理层对我们这

些新股东很友好,该笔投资最终损失的可能性很小。

CommonwealthTrustCo.ofUnionCity25.5%的股权由一家大银行持有。Commonwealth 拥 有资产约达 5000 万美元,约为第一国民银行或位于奥马哈的美国国民银行的一半。这家大 银行一直想对 Commonwealth Trust Co. of Union City 进行合并。出于个人的原因,该并购一 直被阻止。但有证据显示,这种情况不会无限期地持续下去 。因此我们有了这样的良好组合 : ( 1 )很强的防御性特征 ; ( 2 )建立在一个步伐上的优良稳定价值 ; ( 3 )尽管可能是一年或十 年,但是这个价值最终释放。如果后者属实,其价值大概已经达到了一个相当大的数字 ,即 每股 250 美元。

一年多以来,我们成功地获得了 Commonwealth 12 %的股权,平均成本约在每股 51 美元 左右。很明显,我们具有保持股价不动而增持股票的优势 。我们所持股份将随着公司规模的 扩张而增长,尤其是我们成为第二大股东后 ,就具有足够的投票权以就合并事宜提供征询建 议。

Commonwealth 大约只有 300 名股东,平均每月约有两个交易商 。所以你可以理解为什么我 说这部分股权从快速上涨的市场得益甚少了。

不幸的是,我们的确遇到了一些竞价对手。他们将股价抬高到 65美元,而我们既不是买家 也不是卖家。对于一个并不活跃的股票 ,很少的购买单子就有可以创造价格如此的较大变动 。 这就解释这样一个重要性:我们投资组合中的持股,不能作任何 “遗漏”。

年底,我们成功地找到了一笔特殊的交易 ,这笔交易可以使我们以一个富有吸引力的价格收 购而成为最大的股东。所以,我们以每股 80 元的价格售出 Commonwealth 的股份,于此同 时,市场交易的价格大约打了 20 %的折扣。

显而易见,我们还可以在 50 元左右的价格,耐心地、积少成多地收集股票。虽然我们相对 市场的业绩表现可能因此而不太好看,但是我仍将很高兴地进行这样一项目。一 旦 Commonwealth 实现了利润的大幅增长,我们将变得十分富有。因此,当我们基于业绩的长 期结果而估计时,我们的业绩表现在任何一个单一年份具有很大的局限性。不过,我认为 , 投资这样一个低估且有很好(安全边际)保护的项目,是获得证券长期收益的可靠手段。

我可能提到,在 80 元左右收购的买家多年后也将做得不错 。毕竟,80 元相对于内在价值 135 元而言的低估程度,与 50 美元相对内在价值 125 元的低估程度比较,是不同的。在我看来, 我们的资金应当在更好地形势下动作 ,所以决定以 80 元卖出再以 50 元慢慢收集。这种新的 动作力度要稍微大一点,Commonwealth 占我们合伙企业的资金总量达到了 25 %左右。它的 低估程度并不比我们现在持有的证券低估程度大多少,但是由于我们是最大的股东之一 ,我 们可以利用这一优势更快地修正低估状态 。正是因为这一特别的持股 ,我们确信在我们持股 期间内,我们的业绩一定会优于道琼斯指数。

现状

股指越高,被低估的证券就越少 。我越来越感觉很难找到足够数量的 、具有吸引力的投资机 会。我宁愿增加我们的 WORK-OUT 的比例,但很难找到正确的时间。

因此,尽可能地,我试图通过在几个低估的证券上获得较大仓位 ,以创造获利了结。这种政 策将会导致实现我早先预期:熊市或盘整中业绩高于平均水平;牛市中业绩处于一般水平 。 我希望基于这样的基础被评价。如果你有任何问题,请随时提问。

沃伦 巴菲特


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