跳至主要内容

巴菲特致股东信-1971年

 编者笔记:

  • 保险业务因为高毛利,开始有了更多竞争(资本逐利性)
  • 确保当保险灾难来临时,有能力调集足够的资金来解决
  • 巴菲特几乎从不进行恶意收购,收购的主要目的是:长期持有企业以获得经营利润并利用自由现金流再投资

原文:

https://xueqiu.com/6217262310/131103035 


To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

It is a pleasure to report that operating earnings in 1971, excluding capital gains, amounted to more than 14% of beginning shareholders' equity. This result--considerably above the average of American industry--was achieved in the face of inadequate earnings in our textile operation, making clear the benefits of redeployment of capital inaugurated five years ago. It will continue to be the objective of management to improve return on total capitalization (long term debt plus equity), as well as the return on equity capital. However, it should be realized that merely maintaining the present relatively high rate of return may well prove more difficult than was improvement from the very low levels of return which prevailed throughout most of the 1960's.

Textile Operations

We, in common with most of the textile industry, continued to struggle throughout 1971 with inadequate gross margins. Strong efforts to hammer down costs and a continuous search for less price-sensitive fabrics produced only marginal profits.

However, without these efforts we would have operated substantially in the red.

Employment was more stable throughout the year as our program to improve control of inventories achieved reasonable success.

As mentioned last year, Ken Chace and his management group have been swimming against a strong industry tide. This negative environment has only caused them to intensify their efforts. Currently we are witnessing a mild industry pickup which we intend to maximize with our greatly strengthened sales force. With the improvement now seen in volume and mix of business, we would expect better profitability--although not of a dramatic nature--from our textile operation in 1972.

Insurance Operations

An unusual combination of factors--reduced auto accident frequency, sharply higher effective rates in large volume lines, and the absence of major catastrophes--produced an extraordinarily good year for the property and casualty insurance industry. We shared in these benefits, although they are not without their negative connotations. Our traditional business--and still our largest segment--is in the specialized policy or non- standard insured. When standard markets become tight because of unprofitable industry underwriting, we experience substantial volume increases as producers look to us. This was the condition several years ago, and largely accounts for the surge of direct volume experienced in 1970 and 1971.

Now that underwriting has turned very profitable on an industry-wide basis, more companies are seeking the insureds they were rejecting a short while back and rates are being cut in some areas.

We continue to have underwriting profitability as our primary goal and this may well mean a substantial decrease in National Indemnity's direct volume during 1972. Jack Ringwalt and Phil Liesche continue to guide this operation in a manner matched by very few in the business. Our reinsurance business, which has been developed to a substantial operation in just two years by the outstanding efforts of George Young, faces much the same situation. We entered the reinsurance business late in 1969 at a time when rates had risen substantially and capacity was tight. The reinsurance industry was exceptionally profitable in 1971, and we are now seeing rate-cutting as well as the formation of well-capitalized aggressive new competitors. These lower rates are frequently accompanied by greater exposure. Against this background we expect to see our business curtailed somewhat in 1972. We set no volume goals in our insurance business generally--and certainly not in reinsurance--as virtually any volume can be achieved if profitability standards are ignored. When catastrophes occur and underwriting experience sours, we plan to have the resources available to handle the increasing volume which we will then expect to be available at proper prices.

We inaugurated our "home-state" insurance operation in 1970 by the formation of Cornhusker Casualty Company. To date, this has worked well from both a marketing and an underwriting standpoint. We have therefore further developed this approach by the formation of Lakeland Fire & Casualty Company in Minnesota during 1971, and Texas United Insurance in 1972. Each of these companies will devote its entire efforts to a single state seeking to bring the agents and insureds of its area a combination of large company capability and small company accessibility and sensitivity. John Ringwalt has been in overall charge of this operation since inception. Combining hard work with imagination and intelligence, he has transformed an idea into a well organized business. The "home-state" companies are still very small, accounting for a little over $1.5 million in premium volume during 1971. It looks as though this volume will more than double in 1972 and we will develop a more creditable base upon which to evaluate underwriting performance.

A highlight of 1971 was the acquisition of Home & Automobile Insurance Company, located in Chicago. This company was built by Victor Raab from a small initial investment into a major auto insurer in Cook County, writing about $7.5 million in premium volume during 1971. Vic is cut from the same cloth as Jack Ringwalt and Gene Abegg, with a talent for operating profitably accompanied by enthusiasm for his business. These three men have built their companies from scratch and, after selling their ownership position for cash, retain every bit of the proprietary interest and pride that they have always had.

While Vic has multiplied the original equity of Home & Auto many times since its founding, his ideas and talents have always been circumscribed by his capital base. Wehave added capital funds to the company, which will enable it to establish branch operations extending its highly- concentrated and on-the-spot marketing and claims approach to other densely populated areas.

All in all, it is questionable whether volume added by Home & Auto, plus the "home-state" business in 1972, will offset possible declines in direct and reinsurance business of National Indemnity Company. However, our large volume gains in 1970 and 1971 brought in additional

funds for investment at a time of high interest rates, which will be of continuing benefit in future years. Thus, despite the unimpressive prospects regarding premium volume, the outlook for investment income and overall earnings from insurance in 1972 is reasonably good.

Banking Operations

Our banking subsidiary, The Illinois National Bank & Trust Company, continued to lead its industry as measured by earnings as a percentage of deposits. In 1971, Illinois National earned well over 2% after tax on average deposits while (1) not using borrowed funds except for very occasional reserve balancing transactions; (2) maintaining a liquidity position far above average; (3) recording loan losses far below average; and (4) utilizing a mix of over 50% time deposits with all consumer savings accounts receiving maximum permitted interest rates throughout the year. This reflects a superb management job by Gene Abegg and Bob Kline.

Interest rates received on loans and investments were down substantially throughout the banking industry during 1971. In the last few years, Illinois National's mix of deposits has moved considerably more than the industry average away from demand money to much more expensive time money. For example, interest paid on deposits has gone from under $1.7 million in 1969 to over $2.7 million in 1971. Nevertheless, the unusual profitability of the Bank has been maintained.

Marketing efforts were intensified during the year, with excellent results.

With interest rates even lower now than in 1971, the banking industry is going to have trouble achieving gains in earnings during 1972. Our deposit gains at Illinois National continue to come in the time money area, which produces only very marginal incremental income at present. It will take very close cost control to enable Illinois National to maintain its 1971 level of earnings during 1972.

Financial

Because of the volume gains being experienced by our insurance subsidiaries early in 1971, we re-cast Berkshire Hathaway's bank loan so as to provide those companies with additional capital funds. This financing turned out to be particularly propitious when the opportunity to purchase Home & Auto occurred later in the year. Our insurance and banking subsidiaries possess a fiduciary relationship with the public. We retain a fundamental belief in operating from a very strongly financed position so as to be in a position to unquestionably fulfill our responsibilities. Thus, we will continue to map our financial future for maximum financial strength in our subsidiaries as well as at the parent company level.

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board March 13,1972


Popular posts from 产品随想的博客

Steve Jobs: `There's Sanity Returning', 1998

Nobody can doubt the charisma of Steven P. Jobs. The interim CEO of Apple Computer Inc., who returned to the company last July after his ignominious 1985 ouster, has brought back his legendary vision, impatience, and infectious passion for the Macintosh. Jobs spoke to Business Week Correspondent Andy Reinhardt in Apple's stark, fourth-floor boardroom, just after the company rolled out its new software strategy on May 11. Note: This is an extended, online-only version of the Q&A that appears in the May 25, 1998, issue of Business Week. Q: Now that you've introduced the new, bold-looking iMac, are you going to do some radically different products? A: There's a lot of talk about such things -- about handhelds, set-top boxes. A lot of computer companies have been searching for a consumer product. My view is that the personal computer has been the most successful consumer product of the last 10 years. What we have to do, what the industry stopp...

CAD 天正与 AI 工作流

基本步骤   1. 天正导出 T3 .dwg 文件,尽量在2007版本   2. AI 打开,打开时候可以选择比例,因为 AI 画布是基于真实尺度   3. AI 打开 .dwg 后,更改画布到所需要的大小   4. 之后用 PS 打开 AI 文件,可以维持想要的大小和比例   5. 而且 AI 可以读取天正的图层 课外了解   1. ETH 风格平面图   2. 日本创新性的停车方式   3. AI中的实时上色功能去了解

BG投资十问(Baillie Gifford)

  1,公司是否能正面推动经济、社会或者文化发 展? 如果做不到,BG可能就不会再往下看了。比如军火、赌博类公司再便宜,BG不会去看。 2,公司销售额在5年之内能否翻倍? 为什么要讨论销售额?因为BG关注公司成长,销售额是比较简单直观的指标,而利润可有一些方法调节。所以,BG主要先关注销售额,再看现金流。 3,公司5年之后会怎么样? 这是未来5到10年或者5到15年的中间维度,一是看公司的成长空间究竟还有多大,二是考虑5年之后,公司的短期估值会不会下降,会不会变得成熟。 4,公司的竞争优势到底是什么?随着时间会变 强还是变弱? BG认为,如果公司的竞争优势是不断变弱的,将来在更远期挣回现金流的可能性就更低了。 5,公司是否有非常独特的文化?文化是否能够进化? 毕竟要投资这么长时间,对创始人和公司管理文化是非常关注的。特别喜欢创始人领导的公司,而不是说创始人什么都不干,创始人在做房地产,找了一些人在做新公司,要尽量避免这样的公司。 谈到进化在BG看来,大部分公司都会有大公司病,需要看它怎么能维持比较灵活的管理,变大之后还能够保持非常快速的成长,比如亚马逊的day one文化(注:就是始终处在 创业启动状态,充满迷茫和压力,但是充满创造力和颠覆思想 )。 6,公司过去的回报率怎么样? 一方面是考虑到公司的ROE(净资产收益率),二是考虑公司的Margins(利润),看它的过去是不是值得投资,如果每年ROE都不到10个点,可能长期来看也没什么意思。 7,ROE能不能随着时间增长? 有些公司一开始没有盈利,一直在烧钱,5年之后说不定ROE会到20%或者更高,它是一个动态过程。这样的公司BG也会投资,包括一些早期项目,很多公司都是没有盈利的。 8,公司怎么分配资本? 资本现金流无非就是5种方法:再投资、收购、还债、分红、回购股份,要看公司在某个阶段的资本分配是不是最优的。 如果公司明明可以发展更多,结果乱分红了;或者是明明到了特别成熟的时候,还不愿意分红,都是错误的分配资本。 9,公司怎样才能长成5倍? BG关注的是怎样,而不是能不能。这会强迫BG每个人去设想一些未来的可能性,包括公司现在的底层架构能不能够延伸到更多的业务。 比如,早期的亚马逊或者是阿里,连一个概念都没有,BG会考虑这个公司有没有这种机遇,以后去扩展到可触及的市场。 10,市场对公司有哪些误解,哪些事...

产品随想 | 周刊 第62期:求索于主义与问题间

Products OpenRailwayMap   https://www.openrailwaymap.org/ 全世界的铁路基础设施地图 中国铁路地图   http://cnrail.geogv.org/zhcn/about 中文播客榜   https://xyzrank.com/#/hot-podcasts 欣慰,梁文道排名还挺靠前 NetGuard   https://github.com/M66B/NetGuard/ NetGuard provides simple and advanced ways to block access to the internet - no root required. Applications and addresses can individually be allowed or denied access to your Wi-Fi and/or mobile connection. ffmpeg buddy   https://evanhahn.github.io/ffmpeg-buddy/ a friend to help you build ffmpeg commands MaoXian Web Clipper   https://github.com/mika-cn/maoxian-web-clipper?auto_subscribed=false A web extension to clip information from web page. Save it to your local machine to avoid information invalidation. Not bored registration, Not charged. Pake   https://github.com/tw93/Pake 很简单的用 Rust 打包网页生成很小的 Mac App 潮流周刊   https://weekly.tw93.fun/ 挺不错的周刊,推荐之 Mackup   https://github.com/lra/mackup Keep your application settings in sync (OS ...

产品爱好者周刊 第36期:走进Linux

Products OpenShot   https://github.com/OpenShot/openshot-qt OpenShot Video Editor is an award-winning free and open-source video editor for Linux, Mac, and Windows 开源的视频剪辑工具,跨平台 Run   https://github.com/The-Run-Philosophy-Organization/run 润学全球官方指定GITHUB,整理润学宗旨、纲领、理论和各类润之实例 Dozer   https://github.com/Mortennn/Dozer Hide menu bar icons on macOS ThisIsWin11   https://github.com/builtbybel/ThisIsWin11 Win11的隐私保护 RoundedTB   https://github.com/torchgm/RoundedTB Add margins, rounded corners and segments to your taskbars! Droptop Four   https://github.com/Droptop-Four/Basic-Version Droptop Four is the fourth iteration of the popular dropdown app launcher for Windows & Rainmeter. LibreTube   https://github.com/Libre-tube/LibreTube An alternative frontend for YouTube, for Android. nheko   https://github.com/Nheko-Reborn/nheko Quaternion   https://github.com/quotient-im/Quaternion 多平台的Matrix客户端 FluffyChat   https://fluffychat.im/ Phone端的Matrix...

书房拾遗-第42至45期

  书房拾遗-第42至45期 42期 网络说:持有平安的人,大概率持有万科,而持有平安和万科的人,大概率也持有格力。 后来想通了,这类投资者,内心基本是将“龙头+白马+低市盈率+从股价高点已经大幅调整”这几个条件叠加,然后将其等同于正宗的“价值投资”,所以自然而然地汇总到同一条路上了。 网友:uta:老唐,请问企业价值为什么用现金流折现,而不是用净利润折现? 唐朝:因为净利润不是钱,净利润是账。账不是价值,钱才是价值。 地魔:请问在你的投资体系里,一家公司的ROE低于多少就不值得研究或者投资了? 唐朝:通常低于8%我就不大关注了。 43期 唐朝:银行非常常见的操作。放贷款的同时拉存款,降低了实际贷款额,提高了真实贷款利率。 WDS:没看懂,怎么提高贷款利率? 唐朝 :你获得银行贷款100万,利率5%。但同时要求你存款30万,存款利息2%,你实际贷款多少,成本多少? 唐朝:你一年支付5万利息,收到0.6万利息,实际使用资金70万,所以,你的贷款利率是4.4/70=6.29%。说这个是小学数学,不算夸张吧? 44期 Uta:是不是投资港股市场的股票风险要比A股的股票大? 唐朝:核心在于自己的理念。理念不对,A股港股都是风大浪大;理念对了,港股A股都是闲庭信步。 唐朝:主要是招股书披露的基础知识特别详细,一般我会看看,学习一些行业基础知识。和普通年报一样,没啥特别要注意的地方。 45期 数字货币替代的是现金,微信支付宝可以作为现金支付手段,也可以作为数字货币支付手段。货币的形式和支付的形式,是两码事。 数字货币不是微信支付宝的对手,它是运钞车、ATM机、点钞员、印刷厂……的对手。 Lei:老唐,对于初学者来说的话是先多看财报,还是先多看书籍比较好。谢谢 唐朝:我认为多看财报,不懂的时候查书,是进步最快的方式。 老唐从2017年1月首次介入腾讯至今,只有买入没有卖出,最低买过197.3港币,最高买过607港币,平均买入位置大概在465~470港币之间(就是去年底约480港币的平均买入位置减去所分京东股票价值),目前持有腾讯的市值是八位数,亏损是七位数。 但不装不端,我真没有任何压力。如前所述,真要是爆发核战争,拿股票现金黄金房子都是一码事,没区别;如果没有核战争,等上几年后我几乎100%确定我会是赚钱的,区别无外乎也就是赚几千万还是赚几百万而已。

毕设采访问卷自己的回答

1.      提一个作品中的有意思的设计点。       毕设中,自己觉得最有趣的一点是,尝试将商业建筑的一层开放给城市绿色空间,让其 作为 公园的一部分,让建筑的入侵感变弱。       很期待上海以后能出现这样的设计,尽管这样的设计短期看对于开发商没有利益,但我认 为 长期看对于城市使用者、对于城市管理者是有好处的,而我也还在思考,怎样去弥补这样 的 设计对于开发商造成的损失,希望能塑造共赢的局面,这个思考、设计的过程自己非常开 心,觉得有意思。 2.      如何看待城市发展过程中新旧交织的困局?设计师能做什么?        城市发展一般是从无到有,发展到一定阶段,最开始的就成了旧的,不可避免地会和新的产生冲突。        作为建筑设计师,面对旧的,我们常思考的是,它好不好?如果好,那新的要与他保持和谐,形式可能有新旧,但内核、设计语言是一致的;如果旧的不好,我们的思维是,趁着新的发展,一并改造、更新,让新旧作为整体面向城市。总的来说,就是设计师要整体考虑,对于旧的不能一味保留,也不能一味摈弃。 3.      完成毕设过程中遇到的困难以及如何解决的?从中收获了什么?        遇到最大的困难是城市总平面设计中,对于基地新旧建筑的考虑,自己常希望能多保留一些,但设计中又发现如何把握度有些困难,后来解决方法是制定一个标准,旧的能不能提供新价值,如果不能,果断抛弃;如果能,留下。        按这样思路,困难算成功克服,小小收获是当你很贪心地想多留东西时,想想它是不是累赘,想清楚就不累了。 4.      导师在你完成毕设过程中的角色?(可以举一个例子)        我的毕设导师是王林教授,她一直是我毕设中的鼓励者和点拨人。     ...

靠谱DNS

常用靠谱DNS 阿里DNS:223.5.5.5    223.6.6.6 114DNS:114.114.114.114  ---有DNS劫持和广告嵌入,域名屏蔽作为 腾讯DNS:119.29.29.29 V2EX DNS:199.91.73.222     178.79.131.110 OpenDNS:208.67.222.222    208.67.220.220    208.67.222.220    208.67.220.222 台湾中华电讯DNS: 168.95.192.1    168.95.192.2 香港宽带: 203.80.96.9    203.80.96.10 无污染DNS  中科大DNS----相对来说国内最少被污染的DNS 202.38.64.1 202.112.20.131 202.141.160.95 202.141.160.99 202.141.176.95 202.141.176.99 202.141.176.93 202.141.162.123 202.38.93.153 202.38.93.153 (教育网) 202.38.93.94 202.141.176.93 (中国移动) 202.141.162.123 (中国电信)  添加两个国人工程师自建的DNS,貌似假设在腾讯网段 115.159.146.99  南方 123.206.21.48  北方   网址 AIXYZ DNS

Rhino Make2d工作流

作者:毛伟伟 链接:https://www.zhihu.com/question/22117854/answer/55730599 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 rhino下当然是make2d,技巧在于对齐和不同线段的分层,首先,把每个要导出的模型分好图层,把模型移动到稍微离远点有一段距离的地方。对齐,定好角度保存角度,在模型下画一个框,选择第一部分模型和框,隐藏其他,点击保存好的角度,make2d,建立这个部分的make2d图层,这时候是选中的,group,移动命令,键盘敲击0,确定,这个框和make2d的图会回到原点,以此方式做循环。(装逼一下,既然是一样的loop,我是后来写了一个代码去重复这个步骤的,减少了好大一部分工作量) maya,vetor render导出,不多说,有兴趣可以找我或者找网络教学 su,调好显示模式导出pdf就好,经验是,导出纯线框显示模式的pdf不如导出带色不带光影的pdf,因为在ai下能选择同样的颜色的部分,你只需要分好颜色,在ai下选择分层起来就很方便。因为直接导出线框显示模式的pdf,每一段线都是段的选择起来或者描起来极其浪费时间。 这些都是为了导出线框矢量文件(可是是任何软件看你擅长,ai,cdr(我很不想建议,但是我要表达同一擅长方面的软件一个就好)都行)。(所以你说学不学?) ai 下调整各种线宽,line weight绝对是一个很大的学问,比如何使用ai重要百倍。然后箭头什么的尽量都在ai下完成把。 ps的调整是图已经完成,需要在填充下做一些advanced的表达效果。因为ps下的蒙板橡皮擦对图片纹理等等有关图片的素材处理起来太方便。包括光,光暗,图片效果。 id或者ai下做好排版,把这些素材放进去

对话元气森林唐彬森:富翁、海盗与产品经理

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/15gAqbUJk-TTYP9mtkZFnw 战略要向二级市场投资人学习,管理要像 “海盗” 学习,产品要向游戏公司学习。 我们在 B 站晚会上花的钱和某些冠名商一样,但你记得他们的广告吗?不记得。我们要冠名就冠名这一天最好的节目,就只说一个产品——气泡水。当时团队都反对,但我没觉得这是一个重要的事情,多花点钱少花点钱不是主要矛盾。 如果你每年都有好牌,那说明这个牌不够好。你每天都有机会就不是机会。 三十而立,就是要多试多闯。四十不惑,要找到并专注你喜爱的事情。但最后你会发现就是命。你做的买卖本身好不好,决定了谁牛*。中国、韩国、俄罗斯之前最大的三家互联网企业,都是搜索引擎、社交、电商。 有一点我相信,饮料这个市场最终跑不赢游戏,实物消费增长长期一定跑不赢虚拟。人类社会满足高阶需求的产品,会越来越重要,满足基础需求的产品在 GDP 占比会越来越低。 ————Silas:高阶需求,比如Metaverse? 人在一个真实世界里实现自我,太消耗环境资源了么?游戏是让人在虚拟世界里实现自我,环保高效。 ————类似于建筑的3D建模 招这人是因为这是个对产品有爱的人,有爱,且不为钱发愁,才能把产品做出来。 看一个创始人有没有挣过钱,是一个最简单粗暴、证明他有没有能力的方法。 今天你需要 Java,明天需要 PHP,过两年又需要别的,那些东西是不值得学习的。真正有价值的是那些系统、语言、数学等最基本的东西。 (你也参加了中欧商学院、湖畔学院。)我从来没觉得课重要,我交朋友去了。 ————太真实了。 上商学院应该有四个原则:第一是不要面向机会,要面向未来大趋势。第二不要交生意上的伙伴,要交心灵的朋友,好多人去商学院做生意,这种人越做越差。我觉得一个 CEO 是很孤独的,需要一些人喝喝酒聊聊天。第三是不要只寻找变化的东西,要寻找不变的东西。 我就喜欢研究那些挣过钱的人说的话。 ————我也喜欢!