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巴菲特致股东信-1959年

编者笔记:

  • 许多基金经理跑不赢大盘
  • 资产被投资在被低估的或同时具有WORK-OUT(合并、清算等预期)性质的证券上。

原文:

1959 年股票市场的总体情况

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数无疑是被最广泛使用的指数,我们用它来描述 1959年某种程 度错误的情景。该指数从 583 涨至 679,年回报率为 16.46%。如果加上已经发放给股东的 红利,总回报率将达到 19.97%

尽管这显示了强劲的市场,然而纽约交易所中下跌的股票要多于上涨的股票数量,分别 是 710 682。无论是道琼斯铁路平均价格指数还是公用事业平均价格指数都有不同程度的下 跌。

大多数投资信托同工业平均价格指数相比,表现要差得多。Tri-Continental 公司,全国最大 的封闭式证券投资公司,总资产达到 4 亿美元,仅仅获得了 5.77 %的收益率。其董事长弗 莱德-布朗(Fred Brown)在最近一次分析师协会中的演讲中透露了该数据,并以此来描述 整个市场特征。

“不过,即使我们喜欢我们的组合中的股票,但 Tri-Continental 公司 1959 年的市场表现仍 然令人失望。投资者的信心和热情对 1959 年市场表现发挥了大部分的作用,对于训练于价 值投资和长期投资理念的投资经理来讲很难琢磨。也许我们没有将我们的步伐调整合适 ,但 是,我们认为这样我们可以将风险控制在有限的范围内,而这个风险是 Tri-Continenta 公司 投资者的钱所可以承受的 。有一个限度的风险比投资的一个机构例如三大陆应采取与其股东 的钱而且我们认为该组合是对未来年份的反应 。”

马萨诸塞投资者信托(Massachusetts Investors Trust,),是全国最大的共同基金 ,总资产十五 亿美元,在当年取得了约 9%的平均回报率。

你们大都知道,我已经对股票总体水平表示担忧好几年了 。迄今为止,这种谨慎看来还是不 必要的。按以前的标准,新闻界普遍宣称的蓝筹股 ,其价格包含了大量的投机成分 ,存在造 成相应的损失风险 。也许还有其他估值标准正在进化 ,将永久地取代旧的标准 。但是我不这 么认为。也许我是错的,但是我宁愿接受因为过度保守而招致的惩罚 ,而不愿因为相信树木 将长至天空外这样的“新时代”哲学观点而造成的错误结果 。后者的错误将可能给资本带来 的永久性损失。

1959 年的经营结果

在以前的信中我一直强调过 ,我建议使用新的考核业绩标准来检验相对业绩(相对于一般市 场指数和流行投资信托基金 ),在下跌或盘整的股市中是否有好的相对经营结果,而在迅速 上涨的股市中可能拥有不是让人印象深刻的结果。

1959 年我们很幸运地取得相当好的成果 ,六个合伙企业已取得了总体约在 22.3 %30.0 %之间的收益率,平均是 25.97 %。这些合伙企业的投资组合现在有 80%的可比较性,但仍 然存在一些差异是因为获取证券或现金的时间 、支付给合伙人的资金不同。在过去的几年中, 没有哪一个合伙企业持续地站在业绩的最前或最后 。而当投资组合变得可比较时 ,合伙人之间的收益差异正在缩小。

总净利润基于经过收、付合伙人款项调整后的年初年终的市值差额 。它不是基于实际已实现 利润,而是用于测量一年清算价值的变化 。总净利润计入了付给合伙人的利息 、分给总合伙 人的利润,没计入营运费用。

主要经营费用扣除准则基于的是 Nebraska 无形资产税法(Nebraska Intangibles Tax ),该税 额所有证券市场市值的 0.47%。去年,也就是成立的第一年,这种税已经有效地执行。这样 也意味着我们失去了资产的 0.47%

投资组合现状

去年我曾提到涉及各个合伙企业大约 25 %的资产一项投资,现在该投资已经上升到约 35%。 这是一个非常大且非正常的比例 ,但我有强有力的理由 。实际上,这家公司是一个拥有约三 十或四十其他高质量证券的投资信托基金 。我们以保守的方法来评估该企业的价值 ,在资产 价值的基础上大打折扣的市场价格上买入 。目前我们是该公司的最大的股东 ,而其他两个大 股东也赞成我们对该公司的看法 ,我们预计有利于我们的情况很快就会出现(指该公司的合 并),很可能就是今年。我们的其他资产则被投资在被低估的或同时具有 WORK-OUT (合 并、清算等预期)性质的证券上。


沃伦 巴菲特

1960-2-20


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