跳至主要内容

Steve Jobs: The Next Insanely Great Thing

 

Steve Jobs has been right twice. The first time we got Apple. The second time we got NeXT. The Macintosh ruled. NeXT tanked. Still, Jobs was right both times. Although NeXT failed to sell its elegant and infamously buggy black box, Jobs's fundamental insight---that personal computers were destined to be connected to each other and live on networks---was just as accurate as his earlier prophecy that computers were destined to become personal appliances.

Now Jobs is making a third guess about the future. His passion these days is for objects. Objects are software modules that can be combined into new applications (see "Get Ready for Web Objects"), much as pieces of Lego are built into toy houses. Jobs argues that objects are the key to keeping up with the exponential growth of the World Wide Web. And it's commerce, he says, that will fuel the next phase of the Web explosion.

On a foggy morning last year, I drove down to the headquarters of NeXT Computer Inc. in Redwood City, California, to meet with Jobs. The building was quiet and immaculate, with that atmosphere of low-slung corporate luxury typical of successful Silicon Valley companies heading into their second decade. Ironically, NeXT is not a success. After burning through hundreds of millions of dollars from investors, the company abandoned the production of computers, focusing instead on the sale and development of its Nextstep operating system and on extensions into object-oriented technology.

Here at NeXT, Jobs was not interested in talking about Pixar Animation Studios, the maker of the world's first fully computer-generated feature movie, Toy Story (see "The Toy Story Story," WIRED 3.12, page 146). Jobs founded Pixar in 1986 when he bought out a computer division of Lucasfilm Ltd. for $60 million, and with Pixar's upcoming public stock offering, he was poised to become a billionaire in a single day. To Jobs, Pixar was a done deal, Toy Story was in the can, and he was prepared to let his IPO do the talking.

A different type of executive might have talked only about Pixar. But even when given the chance to crow, Jobs kept talking about Web objects and his ambitions for NeXT. He was fixed on the next big thing. And that was fine. After all, people often become more interesting when they've failed at something, and with his fall from Apple, the struggle at NeXT, and the triumph of Pixar, Jobs is now moving into his second circuit around the wheel of fortune. What has he learned?

As we began our interview, Jobs was testy. He told me that he didn't care anymore about revolutionizing society, and that he didn't believe changes in technology could solve the most important problems we face. The future of the Web was in the hands of big corporations, he said. This was where the money was going to be made. This was where NeXT was pitching its products.

I couldn't help but wonder how this incarnation of Steve Jobs jibed with the old revolutionary of Apple and the early years of NeXT. As the conversation deepened, some of the connections slowly grew clear. Jobs's testiness faded, and he allowed himself to speculate on the democratizing effects of the Web and his hope for defending it against the threat of Microsoft. Jobs's obsession with his old rival took the form of an unusual proposal for all parties to voluntarily keep the Web simple and avoid increasingly popular client-side enhancements like HotJava.

In the old days, Jobs was an evangelist for American education and worked hard to get computers in schools. The partnership between Apple and educators was key in establishing a market for the Macintosh, while the NeXT machine was originally designed to serve primarily as a tool for students and teachers. Now, Jobs flatly concludes, technology can't help fix the problems with our education system. His new solutions are decidedly low-tech.

The new Steve Jobs scoffs at the naïve idealism of Web partisans who believe the new medium will turn every person into a publisher. The heart of the Web, he said, will be commerce, and the heart of commerce will be corporate America serving custom products to individual consumers. The implicit message of the Macintosh, as unforgettably expressed in the great "1984" commercial, was Power to the People. Jobs's vision of Web objects serves a different mandate: Give the People What They Want.

Wired: The Macintosh computer set the tone for 10 years. Do you think the Web may be setting the tone today?

Jobs: The desktop computer industry is dead. Innovation has virtually ceased. Microsoft dominates with very little innovation. That's over. Apple lost. The desktop market has entered the dark ages, and it's going to be in the dark ages for the next 10 years, or certainly for the rest of this decade.

It's like when IBM drove a lot of innovation out of the computer industry before the microprocessor came along. Eventually, Microsoft will crumble because of complacency, and maybe some new things will grow. But until that happens, until there's some fundamental technology shift, it's just over.

The most exciting things happening today are objects and the Web. The Web is exciting for two reasons. One, it's ubiquitous. There will be Web dial tone everywhere. And anything that's ubiquitous gets interesting. Two, I don't think Microsoft will figure out a way to own it. There's going to be a lot more innovation, and that will create a place where there isn't this dark cloud of dominance.

Why do you think the Web has sprouted so fast?

One of the major reasons for the Web's proliferation so far is its simplicity. A lot of people want to make the Web more complicated. They want to put processing on the clients, they want to do this and that. I hope not too much of that happens too quickly.

It's much like the old mainframe computing environment, where a Web browser is like a dumb terminal and the Web server is like the mainframe where all the processing's done. This simple model has had a profound impact by starting to become ubiquitous.

And objects?

When I went to Xerox PARC in 1979, I saw a very rudimentary graphical user interface. It wasn't complete. It wasn't quite right. But within 10 minutes, it was obvious that every computer in the world would work this way someday. And you could argue about the number of years it would take, and you could argue about who would be the winners and the losers, but I don't think you could argue that every computer in the world wouldn't eventually work this way.

Objects are the same way. Once you understand objects, it's clear that all software will eventually be written using objects. Again, you can argue about how many years it will take, and who the winners and losers will be during this transition, but you can't argue about the inevitability of this transition.

Objects are just going to be the way all software is going to be written in five years or---pick a time. It's so compelling. It's so obvious. It's so much better that it's just going to happen.

How will objects affect the Web?

Think of all the people now bringing goods and services directly to customers through the Web. Every company that wants to vend its goods and services on the Web is going to have a great deal of custom-application software to write. You're not just going to be able to buy something off the shelf. You're going to have to hook the Web into your order-management systems, your collection systems. It's going to be an incredible amount of work.

The number of applications that need to be written is growing exponentially. Unless we can find a way to write them in a tenth of the time, we're toast.

The end result of objects---this repackaging of software---is that we can develop applications with only about 10 to 20 percent of the software development required any other way.

We see how people won the battle of the desktop by owning the operating system. How does one win on the Web?

There are three parts to the Web. One is the client, the second is the pipes, and the third is the servers.

On the client side, there's the browser software. In the sense of making money, it doesn't look like anybody is going to win on the browser software side, because it's going to be free. And then there's the typical hardware. It's possible that some people could come out with some very interesting Web terminals and sell some hardware.

On the pipe side, the RBOCs are going to win. In the coming months, you're going to see a lot of them offering a service for under $25 a month. You get ISDN strung into your den, you get a little box to hook it into your PC, and you get an Internet account, which is going to be very popular. The RBOCs are going to be the companies that get you on the Web. They have a vested interest in doing that. They'd like to screw the cable companies; they'd like to preserve the customers. This is all happening right now. You don't see it. It's under the ground like the roots of a tree, but it's going to spring up and you're going to see this big tree within a few years.

As for the server market, companies like Sun are doing a nice business selling servers. But with Web server software, no one company has more than a single-digit market share yet. Netscape sells hardly any, because you can get free public-domain software and it's very good. Some people say that it's even better than what you can buy.

Our company decided that people are going to layer stuff above this very simple Web server to help others build Web applications, which is where the bottleneck is right now. There's some real opportunity there for making major contributions and a lot of money. That's what WebObjects is all about.

What other opportunities are out there?

Who do you think will be the main beneficiary of the Web? Who wins the most?

People who have something -

To sell!

To share.

To sell!

You mean publishing?

It's more than publishing. It's commerce. People are going to stop going to a lot of stores. And they're going to buy stuff over the Web!

What about the Web as the great democratizer?

If you look at things I've done in my life, they have an element of democratizing. The Web is an incredible democratizer. A small company can look as large as a big company and be as accessible as a big company on the Web. Big companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars building their distribution channels. And the Web is going to completely neutralize that advantage.

What will the economic landscape look like after that democratic process has gone through another cycle?

The Web is not going to change the world, certainly not in the next 10 years. It's going to augment the world. And once you're in this Web-augmented space, you're going to see that democratization takes place.

The Web's not going to capture everybody. If the Web got up to 10 percent of the goods and services in this country, it would be phenomenal. I think it'll go much higher than that. Eventually, it will become a huge part of the economy.

Rethinking Revolution

What's the biggest surprise this technology will deliver?

The problem is I'm older now, I'm 40 years old, and this stuff doesn't change the world. It really doesn't.

That's going to break people's hearts.

I'm sorry, it's true. Having children really changes your view on these things. We're born, we live for a brief instant, and we die. It's been happening for a long time. Technology is not changing it much---if at all.

These technologies can make life easier, can let us touch people we might not otherwise. You may have a child with a birth defect and be able to get in touch with other parents and support groups, get medical information, the latest experimental drugs. These things can profoundly influence life. I'm not downplaying that. But it's a disservice to constantly put things in this radical new light---that it's going to change everything. Things don't have to change the world to be important.

The Web is going to be very important. Is it going to be a life-changing event for millions of people? No. I mean, maybe. But it's not an assured Yes at this point. And it'll probably creep up on people.

It's certainly not going to be like the first time somebody saw a television. It's certainly not going to be as profound as when someone in Nebraska first heard a radio broadcast. It's not going to be that profound.

Then how will the Web impact our society?

We live in an information economy, but I don't believe we live in an information society. People are thinking less than they used to. It's primarily because of television. People are reading less and they're certainly thinking less. So, I don't see most people using the Web to get more information. We're already in information overload. No matter how much information the Web can dish out, most people get far more information than they can assimilate anyway.

The problem is television?

When you're young, you look at television and think, There's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That's a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It's the truth.

So Steve Jobs is telling us things are going to continue to get worse.

They are getting worse! Everybody knows that they're getting worse! Don't you think they're getting worse?

I do, but I was hoping I could come here and find out how they were going to get better. Do you really believe that the world is getting worse? Or do you have a feeling that the things you're involved with are making the world better?

No. The world's getting worse. It has gotten worse for the last 15 years or so. Definitely. For two reasons. On a global scale, the population is increasing dramatically and all our structures, from ecological to economic to political, just cannot deal with it. And in this country, we seem to have fewer smart people in government, and people don't seem to be paying as much attention to the important decisions we have to make.

But you seem very optimistic about the potential for change.

I'm an optimist in the sense that I believe humans are noble and honorable, and some of them are really smart. I have a very optimistic view of individuals. As individuals, people are inherently good. I have a somewhat more pessimistic view of people in groups. And I remain extremely concerned when I see what's happening in our country, which is in many ways the luckiest place in the world. We don't seem to be excited about making our country a better place for our kids.

The people who built Silicon Valley were engineers. They learned business, they learned a lot of different things, but they had a real belief that humans, if they worked hard with other creative, smart people, could solve most of humankind's problems. I believe that very much.

I believe that people with an engineering point of view as a basic foundation are in a pretty good position to jump in and solve some of these problems. But in society, it's not working. Those people are not attracted to the political process. And why would somebody be?

 

Could technology help by improving education?

I used to think that technology could help education. I've probably spearheaded giving away more computer equipment to schools than anybody else on the planet. But I've had to come to the inevitable conclusion that the problem is not one that technology can hope to solve. What's wrong with education cannot be fixed with technology. No amount of technology will make a dent.

It's a political problem. The problems are sociopolitical. The problems are unions. You plot the growth of the NEA [National Education Association] and the dropping of SAT scores, and they're inversely proportional. The problems are unions in the schools. The problem is bureaucracy. I'm one of these people who believes the best thing we could ever do is go to the full voucher system.

I have a 17-year-old daughter who went to a private school for a few years before high school. This private school is the best school I've seen in my life. It was judged one of the 100 best schools in America. It was phenomenal. The tuition was $5,500 a year, which is a lot of money for most parents. But the teachers were paid less than public school teachers---so it's not about money at the teacher level. I asked the state treasurer that year what California pays on average to send kids to school, and I believe it was $4,400. While there are not many parents who could come up with $5,500 a year, there are many who could come up with $1,000 a year.

If we gave vouchers to parents for $4,400 a year, schools would be starting right and left. People would get out of college and say, "Let's start a school." You could have a track at Stanford within the MBA program on how to be the businessperson of a school. And that MBA would get together with somebody else, and they'd start schools. And you'd have these young, idealistic people starting schools, working for pennies.

They'd do it because they'd be able to set the curriculum. When you have kids you think, What exactly do I want them to learn? Most of the stuff they study in school is completely useless. But some incredibly valuable things you don't learn until you're older---yet you could learn them when you're younger. And you start to think, What would I do if I set a curriculum for a school?

God, how exciting that could be! But you can't do it today. You'd be crazy to work in a school today. You don't get to do what you want. You don't get to pick your books, your curriculum. You get to teach one narrow specialization. Who would ever want to do that?

These are the solutions to our problems in education. Unfortunately, technology isn't it. You're not going to solve the problems by putting all knowledge onto CD-ROMs. We can put a Web site in every school---none of this is bad. It's bad only if it lulls us into thinking we're doing something to solve the problem with education.

Lincoln did not have a Web site at the log cabin where his parents home-schooled him, and he turned out pretty interesting. Historical precedent shows that we can turn out amazing human beings without technology. Precedent also shows that we can turn out very uninteresting human beings with technology.

It's not as simple as you think when you're in your 20s---that technology's going to change the world. In some ways it will, in some ways it won't.

What's good for business is good for the Web

If you go back five years, the Web was hardly on anybody's horizon. Maybe even three years ago, it wasn't really being taken seriously by many people. Why is the sudden rise of the Web so surprising?

Isn't it great? That's exactly what's not happening in the desktop market.

Why was everyone, including NeXT, surprised, though?

It's a little like the telephone. When you have two telephones, it's not very interesting. And three is not very interesting. And four. And, well, a hundred telephones perhaps becomes slightly interesting. A thousand, a little more. It's probably not until you get to around ten thousand telephones that it really gets interesting.

Many people didn't foresee, couldn't imagine, what it would be like to have a million, or a few tens of thousands of Web sites. And when there were only a hundred, or two hundred, or when they were all university ones, it just wasn't very interesting. Eventually, it went beyond this critical mass and got very interesting very fast. You could see it. And people said, "Wow! This is incredible."

The Web reminds me of the early days of the PC industry. No one really knows anything. There are no experts. All the experts have been wrong. There's a tremendous open possibility to the whole thing. And it hasn't been confined, or defined, in too many ways. That's wonderful.

There's a phrase in Buddhism,"Beginner's mind." It's wonderful to have a beginner's mind.

Earlier, you seemed to say there's a natural affinity between the Web and objects. That these two things are going to come together and make something very new, right?

Let's try this another way. What might you want to do on a Web server? We can think of four things:

One is simple publishing. That's what 99 percent of the people do today. If that's all you want to do, you can get one of a hundred free Web-server software packages off the Net and just use it. No problem. It works fine. Security's not a giant issue because you're not doing credit card transactions over the Web.

The next thing you can do is complex publishing. People are starting to do complex publishing on the Web---very simple forms of it. This will absolutely explode in the next 12 to 18 months. It's the next big phase of the Web. Have you seen the Federal Express Web site where you can track a package? It took Federal Express about four months to write that program---and it's extremely simple. Four months. It would be nice to do that in four days, or two days, or one day.

The third thing is commerce, which is even harder than complex publishing because you have to tie the Web into your order-management system, your collection system, things like that. I think we're still two years away. But that's also going to be huge.

Last is internal Web sites. Rather than the Internet, it's intranet. Rather than write several different versions of an application for internal consumption---one for Mac, one for PC, one for Unix---people can write a single version and have a cross-platform product. Everybody uses the Web. We're going to see companies have dozens---if not hundreds---of Web servers internally as a means to communicate with themselves.

Three of those four functions of the Web require custom applications. And that's what we do really well with objects. Our new product, WebObjects, allows you to write Web applications 10 times faster.

How does the Web affect the economy?

We live in an information economy. The problem is that information's usually impossible to get, at least in the right place, at the right time.

The reason Federal Express won over its competitors was its package-tracking system. For the company to bring that package-tracking system onto the Web is phenomenal. I use it all the time to track my packages. It's incredibly great. Incredibly reassuring. And getting that information out of most companies is usually impossible.

But it's also incredibly difficult to give information. Take auto dealerships. So much money is spent on inventory---billions and billions of dollars. Inventory is not a good thing. Inventory ties up a ton of cash, it's open to vandalism, it becomes obsolete. It takes a tremendous amount of time to manage. And, usually, the car you want, in the color you want, isn't there anyway, so they've got to horse-trade around. Wouldn't it be nice to get rid of all that inventory? Just have one white car to drive and maybe a laserdisc so you can look at the other colors. Then you order your car and you get it in a week.

Today a dealer says, "We can't get your car in a week. It takes three months." And you say, "Now wait a minute, I want to order a pink Cadillac with purple leather seats. Why can't I get that in a week?" And he says, "We gotta make it." And you say, "Are you making Cadillacs today? Why can't you paint a pink one today?" And he says, "We didn't know you wanted a pink one." And you say, "OK. I'm going to tell you I want a pink one now." And he says, "We don't have any pink paint. Our paint supplier needs some lead time on that paint.' And you say, "Is your paint supplier making paint today?" And he says, "Yeah, but by the time we tell him, it takes two weeks." And you say, "What about leather seats?" And he says, "God, purple leather. It'll take three months to get that."

You follow this back, and you find that it's not how long it takes to make stuff; it's how long it takes the information to flow through the system. And yet electronics move at the speed of light---or very close to it.

So pushing information into the system is sometimes immensely frustrating, and the Web is going to be just as much of a breakthrough in terms of pushing information in as getting information out.

Your view about the Web is an alternative to the commonly held one that it's going to be the renaissance of personal publishing. The person who can't get published through the broadcast media will get a chance to say something.

There's nothing wrong with that. The Web is great because that person can't foist anything on you---you have to go get it. They can make themselves available, but if nobody wants to look at their site, that's fine. To be honest, most people who have something to say get published now.

But when we ask how a person's life is changed by these technologies, pushing information to customize products makes marginal differences. You go to the store and there's a lot of different kinds of toilet paper---some have tulips embossed on them and some don't. You're standing there making a choice, and you want the one with the embossed.

I like the ones without the tulips.

I do, too---and unscented. But that customization is relevant to you for that second but in no other way. For the average person, the possibility to participate as a publisher or a producer has a higher value for them.

I don't necessarily agree. The best way to think of the Web is as a direct-to-customer distribution channel, whether it's for information or commerce. It bypasses all middlemen. And, it turns out, there are a lot of middlepersons in this society. And they generally tend to slow things down, muck things up, and make things more expensive. The elimination of them is going to be profound.

Do you think large institutions are going to be the center of the economy, basically driving it as they are now? Some people say the big company is going to fragment.

I don't see that. There's nothing wrong with big companies. A lot of people think big business in America is a bad thing. I think it's a really good thing. Most people in business are ethical, hard-working, good people. And it's a meritocracy. There are very visible examples in business of where it breaks down but it's probably a lot less than in most other areas of society.

You don't think that structural economic changes will tend to shrink the size of these large companies?

Large companies not paying attention to change will get hurt. The Web will be one more area of significant change and those who don't pay attention will get hurt, while those who see it early enough will get rewarded.

The Web is just going to be one more of those major change factors that businesses face every decade. This decade, in the next 10 years, it's going to be the Web. It's going to be one of them.

But doesn't the Web foster more freedom for individuals?

It is a leveling of hierarchy. An individual can put up a Web site that, if they put enough work into it, looks just as impressive as the largest company in the world.

I love things that level hierarchy, that bring the individual up to the same level as an organization, or a small group up to the same level as a large group with much greater resources. And the Web and the Internet do that. It's a very profound thing, and a very good thing.

Yet the majority of your customers for WebObjects seem to be corporations.

That's correct. And big ones.

Does that cause you any kind of conflict?

Sure. And that's why we're going to be giving our WebObjects software away to individuals and educational institutions for noncommercial use. We've made the decision to give it away.

Shooting the Web in the foot

What do you think about HotJava and the like?

It's going to take a long time for that stuff to become a standard on the Web. And that may shoot the Web in the foot. If the Web becomes too complicated, too fraught with security concerns, then its proliferation may stop---or slow down. The most important thing for the Web is to stay ahead of Microsoft. Not to become more complicated.

That's very interesting. Java pushes the technology toward the client side. Do you find that wrong?

In my opinion? In the next two years? It's dead wrong. Because it may slow down getting to ubiquity. And anything that slows down the Web reaching ubiquity allows Microsoft to catch up. If Microsoft catches up, it's far worse than the fact the Web can't do word processing. Those things can be fixed later.

There's a window now that will close. If you don't cross the finish line in the next two years, Microsoft will own the Web. And that will be the end of it.

Let's assume for a second that many people share an interest in a standard Web that provides a strong alternative to Microsoft. However, when it comes to every individual Web company or Web publisher, they have an interest in making sure that their Web site stays on the edge. I know we do at HotWired. And so we have to get people into HotJava---we have to stay out there---which doesn't bode well for retaining simplicity. We're going to be part of that force pushing people toward a more complicated Web, because we have no choice.

The way you make it more complex is not by throwing stuff on the client side but by providing value, like Federal Express does, by becoming more complex on the server side.

I'm just very concerned that if the clients become smart, the first thing this will do is fracture the Web. There won't be just one standard. There'll be several; they're all going to fight; each one has its problems. So it's going to be very easy to say why just one shouldn't be the standard. And a fractured Web community will play right into Microsoft's hands.

The client-server relationship should be frozen for the next two years, and we shouldn't take it much further. We should just let it be.

 

By collective agreement?

Yeah. By collective agreement. Sure. Go for ubiquity. If Windows can become ubiquitous, so can the existing Web.

How did Windows become ubiquitous?

A force of self-interest throughout the industry made Windows ubiquitous. Compaq and all these different vendors made Windows ubiquitous. They didn't know how to spell software, but they wanted to put something on their machines. That made Windows ubiquitous.

So it just kind of happened.

No, it was sort of an algorithm that got set in motion when everyone's self-interest aligned toward making this happen. And I claim that the same sort of self-interest algorithm is present on the Web. Everyone has a self-interest in making this Web ubiquitous and not having anyone own it---especially not Microsoft.

Is the desktop metaphor going to continue to dominate how we relate to computers, or is there some other metaphor you like better?

To have a new metaphor, you really need new issues. The desktop metaphor was invented because one, you were a stand-alone device, and two, you had to manage your own storage. That's a very big thing in a desktop world. And that may go away. You may not have to manage your own storage. You may not store much before too long.

I don't store anything anymore, really. I use a lot of e-mail and the Web, and with both of those I don't have to ever manage storage. As a matter of fact, my favorite way of reminding myself to do something is to send myself e-mail. That's my storage.

The minute that I don't have to manage my own storage, and the minute I live primarily in a connected versus a stand-alone world, there are new options for metaphors.

GrokKing design

You have a reputation for making well-designed products. Why aren't more products made with the aesthetics of great design?

Design is a funny word. Some people think design means how it looks. But of course, if you dig deeper, it's really how it works. The design of the Mac wasn't what it looked like, although that was part of it. Primarily, it was how it worked. To design something really well, you have to get it. You have to really grok what it's all about. It takes a passionate commitment to really thoroughly understand something, chew it up, not just quickly swallow it. Most people don't take the time to do that.

Creativity is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something, they feel a little guilty because they didn't really do it, they just saw something. It seemed obvious to them after a while. That's because they were able to connect experiences they've had and synthesize new things. And the reason they were able to do that was that they've had more experiences or they have thought more about their experiences than other people.

Unfortunately, that's too rare a commodity. A lot of people in our industry haven't had very diverse experiences. So they don't have enough dots to connect, and they end up with very linear solutions without a broad perspective on the problem. The broader one's understanding of the human experience, the better design we will have.

Is there anything well designed today that inspires you?

Design is not limited to fancy new gadgets. Our family just bought a new washing machine and dryer. We didn't have a very good one so we spent a little time looking at them. It turns out that the Americans make washers and dryers all wrong. The Europeans make them much better---but they take twice as long to do clothes! It turns out that they wash them with about a quarter as much water and your clothes end up with a lot less detergent on them. Most important, they don't trash your clothes. They use a lot less soap, a lot less water, but they come out much cleaner, much softer, and they last a lot longer.

We spent some time in our family talking about what's the trade-off we want to make. We ended up talking a lot about design, but also about the values of our family. Did we care most about getting our wash done in an hour versus an hour and a half? Or did we care most about our clothes feeling really soft and lasting longer? Did we care about using a quarter of the water? We spent about two weeks talking about this every night at the dinner table. We'd get around to that old washer-dryer discussion. And the talk was about design.

We ended up opting for these Miele appliances, made in Germany. They're too expensive, but that's just because nobody buys them in this country. They are really wonderfully made and one of the few products we've bought over the last few years that we're all really happy about. These guys really thought the process through. They did such a great job designing these washers and dryers. I got more thrill out of them than I have out of any piece of high tech in years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Popular posts from 产品随想的博客

《星际牛仔》-中日双字幕

Link: 1) https://www.zhengmianshang.me/cowboybebop/ 2) https://share.dmhy.org/topics/view/499861_MGRT_Cowboy_Bebop_BDrip_1080p_CB_20.html 3) https://futaacg.com/detail-554a3c442d0b65167485c344c9b47b3319d0be34.html

产品随想 | 周刊 第49期:直面真实的世界

Products The Best Bluetooth Speakers   https://www.wired.com/gallery/best-bluetooth-speakers 无法拒绝的优秀蓝牙音箱 自选基金助手   https://github.com/x2rr/funds 快速获取关注基金的实时数据,查看自选基金的实时估值情况 是个好工具,但我想说,其实基金不用实时盯着的,偶尔看看就好 Copy Book   https://github.com/praveenjuge/copybook/ 常用的英语产品文案,适合当小抄,非常有意思 Podcasts   https://podcasts.bluepill.life/ Chrome插件,最有价值的是,将播客,语音转文字 LetsMarkdown.com   https://github.com/Cveinnt/LetsMarkdown.com 在线,一起写Markdown 强词有理   https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPiCc6nO4fybqE7MR7FpyZw/videos 他真的很认真地,在YouTube上讲建筑!果断关注 PlayCover   https://github.com/PlayCover/PlayCover Run iOS apps & games on M1 Mac with mouse, keyboard and controller support. 有预感,以后苹果自家系统级,也会有这样的支持出来 TypeLit.io   https://www.typelit.io/ Improve your typing online by practicing on your favorite literature. 非常有趣, 用公共领域版权的经典作品,来做打字训练 iHateRegex   https://github.com/geongeorge/i-hate-regex The code for iHateregex.io 😈 - The Regex Cheat Sheet “ don't just use; understand. ” ——作者这句话非常好,正则表达式,是我一直没能掌握的点 RealityScan   ht

《Becoming Steve Jobs》Chapter 9 Maybe They Had to Be Crazy

At a trade conference on October 6, 1997, exactly three weeks after Steve announced that he was taking on the title of iCEO, Michael Dell, the billionaire founder of his eponymous build-to-order PC clone business, was asked what he would do if he were put in charge of Apple Computer. “What would I do?” brayed the CEO, who was a decade younger than Steve. “I’d shut it down and give the money back to shareholders.” Steve shot back an email: “CEOs are supposed to have class,” he wrote. But just a year and a half earlier he had told me pretty much the same thing: “Apple ain’t worth anything like the price of its stock,” he’d said. CEO应该有教养,哈哈哈 我骂可以,Dell骂不行 Yet here in the fall of 1997, facing a corporate mess that would have challenged the world’s greatest managers, Steve slowly started to show what he had learned in the eleven years since he was last at Apple. He had developed some discipline as he salvaged NeXT and negotiated a deal and an IPO for Pixar. He had learned the value of patie

产品随想 | 读《置身事内:中国政府与经济发展》 第四章至第六章

第四章 工业化中的政府角色 我国经济改革的起点是计划经济,所以地方政府掌握着大量资源(土地、金融、国企等),不可避免会介入实业投资。 经济学的数学模型和统计数据不是讲道理的唯一形式,也不一定是最优形式,具体的案例故事常常比抽象的道理更有力量,启发更大。(1)在行业或产业研究中,案例常常包含被模型忽视的大量重要信息,尤其是头部企业的案例。依赖企业财务数据的统计分析,通常强调行业平均值。但平均值信息有限,因为大多数行业“二八分化”严重,头部企业与中小企业基本没有可比性。财务数据也无法捕捉大企业的关键特征:大企业不仅是技术的汇聚点和创新平台,也是行业标准的制定者和产业链核心,与政府关系历来深厚复杂,在资本主义世界也是如此。 ──需要判断,而不仅仅是数据,具体工作中,亦如是 本章结构: 前两节是两个行业案例:液晶显示和光伏。 第三节介绍近些年兴起的政府产业投资基金,这种基金不仅是一种新的招商引资方式和产业政策工具,也是一种以市场化方式使用财政资金的探索。 第一节 京东方与政府投资 显示屏和电视,硬件成本近八成来自液晶显示面板。 2008年,面板行业由日韩和中国台湾企业主导,大陆企业的市场占有率可以忽略不计。2012年,我国进口显示面板总值高达500亿美元,仅次于集成电路、石油和铁矿石。 ──原来液晶面板,也曾被如此卡脖子 在显示面板企业的发展过程中,地方政府的投资发挥了关键作用。以规模最大也最重要的公司京东方为例,其液晶显示面板在手机、平板电脑、笔记本电脑、电视等领域的销量近些年来一直居于全球首位。(2)根据其2020年第三季度的报告,前六大股东均是北京、合肥、重庆三地国资背景的投资公司,合计占股比例为23.8%。其中既有综合类国资集团(如北京国有资本经营管理中心),也有聚焦具体行业的国有控股集团(如北京电子控股),还有上一章讨论的地方城投公司(如合肥建投和重庆渝富)。投资方式既有直接股权投资,也有通过产业投资基金(见本章第三节)进行的投资。 ──非常典型的案例,学习之 大陆花了近20年才让彩电工业价值链的95%实现了本土化,但由于没跟上液晶显示的技术变迁,一夜之间价值链的80%又需要依赖进口。 ──创新跟不上的代价,又是新的15年 2001年至2006年,三星、LG、奇美、友达、中华映管、瀚宇彩晶等六家主要企业,在韩国和中国台湾召开了共计53次“晶体会议”,协商作价和联合

产品爱好者周刊 第12期:每月读10本书

Products https://github.com/rumsystem/quorum 霍矩发起的开源区块链项目,期望能成 Vvebo:第三方iPhone微博客户端 Ideas 中国房子既想去库存, 又不想降房价, 是否有点矛盾?: https://project-gutenberg.github.io/Pincong/post/9ad409752769a7fb74914f46bb50b4d9/ 关于中国楼市去库存的一些讨论,非常有意思,其中关于中央政府、地方政府、开发商、金融银行机构、购房者关系的描述、大城市房价缓慢上涨给中小城市去库存争取时间 https://project-gutenberg.github.io/Pincong/post/257ce84c1d1084f9c417b8ece2d953ea/ “政法”:“法律是为政治服务的” 非常可怕的论点 Outside interests 有什么适合大声朗读、文笔优美的英文散文? - 知乎 https://www.zhihu.com/question/35250665 回答里面,有些是满满的回忆 有些城市的灯光偏白偏冷,如上海、东京;而有些城市的灯光偏黄偏暖,如纽约、伦敦。为什么? - 法棍卡玩设计的回答 - 知乎 https://www.zhihu.com/question/441971760/answer/1708096368 《玻璃心》MV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rp7UPbhErE 结合Wiki食用,更佳 唐朝:每个月读5-6本书(真心羡慕) 他变化的书单里,可以看到基本是随着当下的时事热点选书的。比如恒大近期事件,看了《我在碧桂园的1000天》(碧桂园财务总监的书)、《置身事内》(将中央与地方关系,土地财政) 唐朝:仅会考虑2017年以前建成的房产,新房或二手均可 原因是:2017年开始,新房限价,市场开始火爆到抢房的境界。经济学常识告诉我2017年以后建设的房子,质量低劣的概率更大 Business & Market data 北京环球影城,首旅集团占股70%,所以很多时候吐槽的高昂票价,被自己人拿走很多。 蔡崇信:台北长大!13 岁美国念书,爸爸也是耶鲁毕业,他本人是加拿大台湾双重国籍 中央在税收里很大部分,是增值税和所得税,其它部分都在地方

产品随想 | 陪读《Make Something Wonderful:Steve Jobs in his own words》1976-1996

  There’s lots of ways to be, as a person. And some people express their deep appreciation in different ways. But one of the ways that I believe people express their appreciation to the rest of humanity is to make something wonderful and put it out there. And you never meet the people. You never shake their hands. You never hear their story or tell yours. But somehow, in the act of making something with a great deal of care and love, something’s transmitted there. And it’s a way of expressing to the rest of our species our deep appreciation. So we need to be true to who we are and remember what’s really important to us. ──Steve, 2007 Introduction by Laurene Powell Jobs Much of what’s in these pages reflects guiding themes of Steve’s life: his sense of the worlds that would emerge from marrying the arts and technology; his unbelievable rigor, which he imposed first and most strenuously on himself; his tenacity in pursuit of assembling and leading great teams; and perhaps, above all, his

《一本书看透股权架构》

  2022.3.5 涉及的案例整理 海康威视(有限合伙妙用) 复星(金字塔) 《罗辑思维》(初始股权分配不合理) 一号店(同床异梦) 平安集团(进军互联网的操盘) 蚂蚁金服(有限合伙架构,钱权分离,GP出资少但四两拨千斤,高人!) 红星美凯龙(艰辛坎坷,初始股权不合理) 公牛(混合股权架构,很经典的民营企业家架构,如果加上信托更完美) 巨轮股份(“走出去”架构,收购全世界!) 龙湖地产(境外搭建的5层架构成为红筹架构之典范,关注顶层架构的信托) UC浏览器收购(VIE,税收追缴) 顺丰借壳(多元化很难做好) 麻辣诱惑(夫妻店的股权设计,高人!) 安井(与上下游合作的股权结构) 万科、碧桂园的跟投制度 周黑鸭(境外架构与龙湖地产很类似) 正荣地产 美图公司(VIE架构) 富贵鸟 自序 所有的股权架构中都藏着一个“隐形股东”——税务局! “税负考量”、“法律考量”是“哼哈二将” 打通法律、税务、财务、管理四门学科的边界 精选了小米、蚂蚁金服、碧桂园、顺丰控股、万科地产、海底捞、公牛集团等30家名企案例和126张股权架构图 第一部分顶层架构分为3章。24个核心持股比、分股不分权的7种方法、分股的“道”和“术” 第二部分主体架构分为6章。6种主体架构模型:有限合伙架构、自然人直接架构、控股公司架构、混合股权架构、海外股权架构、契约型架构 第三部分底层架构分为3章。3种模型:创新型子公司、复制型子公司和拆分型子公司 第四部分架构重组分为3章。拟上市型、家族传承型、被并购型3类企业 “我们以为在驾驭股权,其实是股权在驾驭我们。” 第一部分 顶层架构 第1章 解码24个核心持股比 将公司分成4类:有限公司、非公众股份公司、新三板公司[1]和上市公司。 [1] 属于非上市公众公司。 有限公司:股东是基于股东间的信任而集合在一起,股东间的关系较为紧密;股东人数有上限,不超过50人; 非公众股份公司:股份公司的股份转让没有限制。 新三板,即全国中小企业股份转让系统 第2章 分股不分权的7种方法 分“钱”而不分“权”,7种控制权设计工具。在实务中,应用频次排序依次为有限合伙企业>金字塔架构>一致行动人>委托投票权>公司章程控制>优先股>AB股模式。 有限合伙企业中,股东不是直接持股拟设立的核心公司 [1] ,而是先由股东搭建有限合伙企业作为持股平台,再由持股平台间接持有核心公司。 通过

八百元八核的服务器?二手服务器搭建指南

原文地址是 八百元八核的服务器?二手服务器搭建指南 ,对作者表示感谢 当你在花近万元剁手i7 5960x时,有没有想过,在华强北的某个角落,有一群人靠几百块收来的二手服务器配件,搭建了一台性能同等,甚至更强的服务器! 不知道有多少人还记得笔者之前发的贴子《 看我如何用一千块钱搭个八核十六线程、32G内存的工作站 》。笔者随意发(pian)了(dian)一(gao)帖(fei),没想到得到了近百条回复!毕竟是弄这一行的,想必各位对硬件兴♂趣肯定也不弱 。 上一贴中,笔者全程自嗨,展示了自己搭建二手服务器的全过程,不少同学看的云里雾里的,所以笔者便有了发这一贴的打算。 这一贴中,笔者将尽力系统地讲述捡垃圾的方法和值得剁手的配件,希望能给大家以启发,带大家搭建自己心仪的服务器。 首先,在看此帖之前,请确认你有攒机的经验和一颗经得起折腾的心(或者你很有钱)。 攒洋垃圾服务器的过程和普通电脑差不多(一般情况下),你只要有自己装机的经验即可。 长文、多图预警,不过建议认真读完全篇,这里面句句都是笔者摸爬滚打多年的经验。  目录: 1、捡垃圾概述 2、服务器CPU通览 3、配件(内存、硬盘)介绍 4、主板(含准系统)通览 5、LGA1366详述 6、LGA2011(含V1、V3)详述 7、笔者常用配置单介绍 8、800元8核搭建实战 由于全文太长,分成上、下两部分,前3章为上,重概念和基础知识;后5章为下,重实践。 注: 1、此文章的信息多是笔者的经验和各处收集所来,难免有错误和疏漏之处,还请各位不吝赐教。 2、文章部分内容和图片摘自互联网,如有侵权请联系笔者。 3、所有的价格信息来着2017年3月24日的 淘宝和华强北 报价。 概述 简介 “捡垃圾”,是对折腾各类二手服务器配件的戏称,而折腾这些的人也被称作为“垃圾佬”,由于大部分二手服务器配件来自万恶的资本主义国家,亦被称为“洋垃圾”。 洋垃圾来源 这些所谓的洋垃圾主要是从国外的服务器上拆机或从OEM的渠道流放出来的,商家直接从欧美日等发达国家购买,运回国内就进行销售(以货柜作为单位),然后进行分类卖给散户。 服务器市场配件往往是民用市场不可触及的高端,而且更新换代速度极快,这就造成了大量二手配件