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Steve Jobs: The Next Insanely Great Thing

 

Steve Jobs has been right twice. The first time we got Apple. The second time we got NeXT. The Macintosh ruled. NeXT tanked. Still, Jobs was right both times. Although NeXT failed to sell its elegant and infamously buggy black box, Jobs's fundamental insight---that personal computers were destined to be connected to each other and live on networks---was just as accurate as his earlier prophecy that computers were destined to become personal appliances.

Now Jobs is making a third guess about the future. His passion these days is for objects. Objects are software modules that can be combined into new applications (see "Get Ready for Web Objects"), much as pieces of Lego are built into toy houses. Jobs argues that objects are the key to keeping up with the exponential growth of the World Wide Web. And it's commerce, he says, that will fuel the next phase of the Web explosion.

On a foggy morning last year, I drove down to the headquarters of NeXT Computer Inc. in Redwood City, California, to meet with Jobs. The building was quiet and immaculate, with that atmosphere of low-slung corporate luxury typical of successful Silicon Valley companies heading into their second decade. Ironically, NeXT is not a success. After burning through hundreds of millions of dollars from investors, the company abandoned the production of computers, focusing instead on the sale and development of its Nextstep operating system and on extensions into object-oriented technology.

Here at NeXT, Jobs was not interested in talking about Pixar Animation Studios, the maker of the world's first fully computer-generated feature movie, Toy Story (see "The Toy Story Story," WIRED 3.12, page 146). Jobs founded Pixar in 1986 when he bought out a computer division of Lucasfilm Ltd. for $60 million, and with Pixar's upcoming public stock offering, he was poised to become a billionaire in a single day. To Jobs, Pixar was a done deal, Toy Story was in the can, and he was prepared to let his IPO do the talking.

A different type of executive might have talked only about Pixar. But even when given the chance to crow, Jobs kept talking about Web objects and his ambitions for NeXT. He was fixed on the next big thing. And that was fine. After all, people often become more interesting when they've failed at something, and with his fall from Apple, the struggle at NeXT, and the triumph of Pixar, Jobs is now moving into his second circuit around the wheel of fortune. What has he learned?

As we began our interview, Jobs was testy. He told me that he didn't care anymore about revolutionizing society, and that he didn't believe changes in technology could solve the most important problems we face. The future of the Web was in the hands of big corporations, he said. This was where the money was going to be made. This was where NeXT was pitching its products.

I couldn't help but wonder how this incarnation of Steve Jobs jibed with the old revolutionary of Apple and the early years of NeXT. As the conversation deepened, some of the connections slowly grew clear. Jobs's testiness faded, and he allowed himself to speculate on the democratizing effects of the Web and his hope for defending it against the threat of Microsoft. Jobs's obsession with his old rival took the form of an unusual proposal for all parties to voluntarily keep the Web simple and avoid increasingly popular client-side enhancements like HotJava.

In the old days, Jobs was an evangelist for American education and worked hard to get computers in schools. The partnership between Apple and educators was key in establishing a market for the Macintosh, while the NeXT machine was originally designed to serve primarily as a tool for students and teachers. Now, Jobs flatly concludes, technology can't help fix the problems with our education system. His new solutions are decidedly low-tech.

The new Steve Jobs scoffs at the naïve idealism of Web partisans who believe the new medium will turn every person into a publisher. The heart of the Web, he said, will be commerce, and the heart of commerce will be corporate America serving custom products to individual consumers. The implicit message of the Macintosh, as unforgettably expressed in the great "1984" commercial, was Power to the People. Jobs's vision of Web objects serves a different mandate: Give the People What They Want.

Wired: The Macintosh computer set the tone for 10 years. Do you think the Web may be setting the tone today?

Jobs: The desktop computer industry is dead. Innovation has virtually ceased. Microsoft dominates with very little innovation. That's over. Apple lost. The desktop market has entered the dark ages, and it's going to be in the dark ages for the next 10 years, or certainly for the rest of this decade.

It's like when IBM drove a lot of innovation out of the computer industry before the microprocessor came along. Eventually, Microsoft will crumble because of complacency, and maybe some new things will grow. But until that happens, until there's some fundamental technology shift, it's just over.

The most exciting things happening today are objects and the Web. The Web is exciting for two reasons. One, it's ubiquitous. There will be Web dial tone everywhere. And anything that's ubiquitous gets interesting. Two, I don't think Microsoft will figure out a way to own it. There's going to be a lot more innovation, and that will create a place where there isn't this dark cloud of dominance.

Why do you think the Web has sprouted so fast?

One of the major reasons for the Web's proliferation so far is its simplicity. A lot of people want to make the Web more complicated. They want to put processing on the clients, they want to do this and that. I hope not too much of that happens too quickly.

It's much like the old mainframe computing environment, where a Web browser is like a dumb terminal and the Web server is like the mainframe where all the processing's done. This simple model has had a profound impact by starting to become ubiquitous.

And objects?

When I went to Xerox PARC in 1979, I saw a very rudimentary graphical user interface. It wasn't complete. It wasn't quite right. But within 10 minutes, it was obvious that every computer in the world would work this way someday. And you could argue about the number of years it would take, and you could argue about who would be the winners and the losers, but I don't think you could argue that every computer in the world wouldn't eventually work this way.

Objects are the same way. Once you understand objects, it's clear that all software will eventually be written using objects. Again, you can argue about how many years it will take, and who the winners and losers will be during this transition, but you can't argue about the inevitability of this transition.

Objects are just going to be the way all software is going to be written in five years or---pick a time. It's so compelling. It's so obvious. It's so much better that it's just going to happen.

How will objects affect the Web?

Think of all the people now bringing goods and services directly to customers through the Web. Every company that wants to vend its goods and services on the Web is going to have a great deal of custom-application software to write. You're not just going to be able to buy something off the shelf. You're going to have to hook the Web into your order-management systems, your collection systems. It's going to be an incredible amount of work.

The number of applications that need to be written is growing exponentially. Unless we can find a way to write them in a tenth of the time, we're toast.

The end result of objects---this repackaging of software---is that we can develop applications with only about 10 to 20 percent of the software development required any other way.

We see how people won the battle of the desktop by owning the operating system. How does one win on the Web?

There are three parts to the Web. One is the client, the second is the pipes, and the third is the servers.

On the client side, there's the browser software. In the sense of making money, it doesn't look like anybody is going to win on the browser software side, because it's going to be free. And then there's the typical hardware. It's possible that some people could come out with some very interesting Web terminals and sell some hardware.

On the pipe side, the RBOCs are going to win. In the coming months, you're going to see a lot of them offering a service for under $25 a month. You get ISDN strung into your den, you get a little box to hook it into your PC, and you get an Internet account, which is going to be very popular. The RBOCs are going to be the companies that get you on the Web. They have a vested interest in doing that. They'd like to screw the cable companies; they'd like to preserve the customers. This is all happening right now. You don't see it. It's under the ground like the roots of a tree, but it's going to spring up and you're going to see this big tree within a few years.

As for the server market, companies like Sun are doing a nice business selling servers. But with Web server software, no one company has more than a single-digit market share yet. Netscape sells hardly any, because you can get free public-domain software and it's very good. Some people say that it's even better than what you can buy.

Our company decided that people are going to layer stuff above this very simple Web server to help others build Web applications, which is where the bottleneck is right now. There's some real opportunity there for making major contributions and a lot of money. That's what WebObjects is all about.

What other opportunities are out there?

Who do you think will be the main beneficiary of the Web? Who wins the most?

People who have something -

To sell!

To share.

To sell!

You mean publishing?

It's more than publishing. It's commerce. People are going to stop going to a lot of stores. And they're going to buy stuff over the Web!

What about the Web as the great democratizer?

If you look at things I've done in my life, they have an element of democratizing. The Web is an incredible democratizer. A small company can look as large as a big company and be as accessible as a big company on the Web. Big companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars building their distribution channels. And the Web is going to completely neutralize that advantage.

What will the economic landscape look like after that democratic process has gone through another cycle?

The Web is not going to change the world, certainly not in the next 10 years. It's going to augment the world. And once you're in this Web-augmented space, you're going to see that democratization takes place.

The Web's not going to capture everybody. If the Web got up to 10 percent of the goods and services in this country, it would be phenomenal. I think it'll go much higher than that. Eventually, it will become a huge part of the economy.

Rethinking Revolution

What's the biggest surprise this technology will deliver?

The problem is I'm older now, I'm 40 years old, and this stuff doesn't change the world. It really doesn't.

That's going to break people's hearts.

I'm sorry, it's true. Having children really changes your view on these things. We're born, we live for a brief instant, and we die. It's been happening for a long time. Technology is not changing it much---if at all.

These technologies can make life easier, can let us touch people we might not otherwise. You may have a child with a birth defect and be able to get in touch with other parents and support groups, get medical information, the latest experimental drugs. These things can profoundly influence life. I'm not downplaying that. But it's a disservice to constantly put things in this radical new light---that it's going to change everything. Things don't have to change the world to be important.

The Web is going to be very important. Is it going to be a life-changing event for millions of people? No. I mean, maybe. But it's not an assured Yes at this point. And it'll probably creep up on people.

It's certainly not going to be like the first time somebody saw a television. It's certainly not going to be as profound as when someone in Nebraska first heard a radio broadcast. It's not going to be that profound.

Then how will the Web impact our society?

We live in an information economy, but I don't believe we live in an information society. People are thinking less than they used to. It's primarily because of television. People are reading less and they're certainly thinking less. So, I don't see most people using the Web to get more information. We're already in information overload. No matter how much information the Web can dish out, most people get far more information than they can assimilate anyway.

The problem is television?

When you're young, you look at television and think, There's a conspiracy. The networks have conspired to dumb us down. But when you get a little older, you realize that's not true. The networks are in business to give people exactly what they want. That's a far more depressing thought. Conspiracy is optimistic! You can shoot the bastards! We can have a revolution! But the networks are really in business to give people what they want. It's the truth.

So Steve Jobs is telling us things are going to continue to get worse.

They are getting worse! Everybody knows that they're getting worse! Don't you think they're getting worse?

I do, but I was hoping I could come here and find out how they were going to get better. Do you really believe that the world is getting worse? Or do you have a feeling that the things you're involved with are making the world better?

No. The world's getting worse. It has gotten worse for the last 15 years or so. Definitely. For two reasons. On a global scale, the population is increasing dramatically and all our structures, from ecological to economic to political, just cannot deal with it. And in this country, we seem to have fewer smart people in government, and people don't seem to be paying as much attention to the important decisions we have to make.

But you seem very optimistic about the potential for change.

I'm an optimist in the sense that I believe humans are noble and honorable, and some of them are really smart. I have a very optimistic view of individuals. As individuals, people are inherently good. I have a somewhat more pessimistic view of people in groups. And I remain extremely concerned when I see what's happening in our country, which is in many ways the luckiest place in the world. We don't seem to be excited about making our country a better place for our kids.

The people who built Silicon Valley were engineers. They learned business, they learned a lot of different things, but they had a real belief that humans, if they worked hard with other creative, smart people, could solve most of humankind's problems. I believe that very much.

I believe that people with an engineering point of view as a basic foundation are in a pretty good position to jump in and solve some of these problems. But in society, it's not working. Those people are not attracted to the political process. And why would somebody be?

 

Could technology help by improving education?

I used to think that technology could help education. I've probably spearheaded giving away more computer equipment to schools than anybody else on the planet. But I've had to come to the inevitable conclusion that the problem is not one that technology can hope to solve. What's wrong with education cannot be fixed with technology. No amount of technology will make a dent.

It's a political problem. The problems are sociopolitical. The problems are unions. You plot the growth of the NEA [National Education Association] and the dropping of SAT scores, and they're inversely proportional. The problems are unions in the schools. The problem is bureaucracy. I'm one of these people who believes the best thing we could ever do is go to the full voucher system.

I have a 17-year-old daughter who went to a private school for a few years before high school. This private school is the best school I've seen in my life. It was judged one of the 100 best schools in America. It was phenomenal. The tuition was $5,500 a year, which is a lot of money for most parents. But the teachers were paid less than public school teachers---so it's not about money at the teacher level. I asked the state treasurer that year what California pays on average to send kids to school, and I believe it was $4,400. While there are not many parents who could come up with $5,500 a year, there are many who could come up with $1,000 a year.

If we gave vouchers to parents for $4,400 a year, schools would be starting right and left. People would get out of college and say, "Let's start a school." You could have a track at Stanford within the MBA program on how to be the businessperson of a school. And that MBA would get together with somebody else, and they'd start schools. And you'd have these young, idealistic people starting schools, working for pennies.

They'd do it because they'd be able to set the curriculum. When you have kids you think, What exactly do I want them to learn? Most of the stuff they study in school is completely useless. But some incredibly valuable things you don't learn until you're older---yet you could learn them when you're younger. And you start to think, What would I do if I set a curriculum for a school?

God, how exciting that could be! But you can't do it today. You'd be crazy to work in a school today. You don't get to do what you want. You don't get to pick your books, your curriculum. You get to teach one narrow specialization. Who would ever want to do that?

These are the solutions to our problems in education. Unfortunately, technology isn't it. You're not going to solve the problems by putting all knowledge onto CD-ROMs. We can put a Web site in every school---none of this is bad. It's bad only if it lulls us into thinking we're doing something to solve the problem with education.

Lincoln did not have a Web site at the log cabin where his parents home-schooled him, and he turned out pretty interesting. Historical precedent shows that we can turn out amazing human beings without technology. Precedent also shows that we can turn out very uninteresting human beings with technology.

It's not as simple as you think when you're in your 20s---that technology's going to change the world. In some ways it will, in some ways it won't.

What's good for business is good for the Web

If you go back five years, the Web was hardly on anybody's horizon. Maybe even three years ago, it wasn't really being taken seriously by many people. Why is the sudden rise of the Web so surprising?

Isn't it great? That's exactly what's not happening in the desktop market.

Why was everyone, including NeXT, surprised, though?

It's a little like the telephone. When you have two telephones, it's not very interesting. And three is not very interesting. And four. And, well, a hundred telephones perhaps becomes slightly interesting. A thousand, a little more. It's probably not until you get to around ten thousand telephones that it really gets interesting.

Many people didn't foresee, couldn't imagine, what it would be like to have a million, or a few tens of thousands of Web sites. And when there were only a hundred, or two hundred, or when they were all university ones, it just wasn't very interesting. Eventually, it went beyond this critical mass and got very interesting very fast. You could see it. And people said, "Wow! This is incredible."

The Web reminds me of the early days of the PC industry. No one really knows anything. There are no experts. All the experts have been wrong. There's a tremendous open possibility to the whole thing. And it hasn't been confined, or defined, in too many ways. That's wonderful.

There's a phrase in Buddhism,"Beginner's mind." It's wonderful to have a beginner's mind.

Earlier, you seemed to say there's a natural affinity between the Web and objects. That these two things are going to come together and make something very new, right?

Let's try this another way. What might you want to do on a Web server? We can think of four things:

One is simple publishing. That's what 99 percent of the people do today. If that's all you want to do, you can get one of a hundred free Web-server software packages off the Net and just use it. No problem. It works fine. Security's not a giant issue because you're not doing credit card transactions over the Web.

The next thing you can do is complex publishing. People are starting to do complex publishing on the Web---very simple forms of it. This will absolutely explode in the next 12 to 18 months. It's the next big phase of the Web. Have you seen the Federal Express Web site where you can track a package? It took Federal Express about four months to write that program---and it's extremely simple. Four months. It would be nice to do that in four days, or two days, or one day.

The third thing is commerce, which is even harder than complex publishing because you have to tie the Web into your order-management system, your collection system, things like that. I think we're still two years away. But that's also going to be huge.

Last is internal Web sites. Rather than the Internet, it's intranet. Rather than write several different versions of an application for internal consumption---one for Mac, one for PC, one for Unix---people can write a single version and have a cross-platform product. Everybody uses the Web. We're going to see companies have dozens---if not hundreds---of Web servers internally as a means to communicate with themselves.

Three of those four functions of the Web require custom applications. And that's what we do really well with objects. Our new product, WebObjects, allows you to write Web applications 10 times faster.

How does the Web affect the economy?

We live in an information economy. The problem is that information's usually impossible to get, at least in the right place, at the right time.

The reason Federal Express won over its competitors was its package-tracking system. For the company to bring that package-tracking system onto the Web is phenomenal. I use it all the time to track my packages. It's incredibly great. Incredibly reassuring. And getting that information out of most companies is usually impossible.

But it's also incredibly difficult to give information. Take auto dealerships. So much money is spent on inventory---billions and billions of dollars. Inventory is not a good thing. Inventory ties up a ton of cash, it's open to vandalism, it becomes obsolete. It takes a tremendous amount of time to manage. And, usually, the car you want, in the color you want, isn't there anyway, so they've got to horse-trade around. Wouldn't it be nice to get rid of all that inventory? Just have one white car to drive and maybe a laserdisc so you can look at the other colors. Then you order your car and you get it in a week.

Today a dealer says, "We can't get your car in a week. It takes three months." And you say, "Now wait a minute, I want to order a pink Cadillac with purple leather seats. Why can't I get that in a week?" And he says, "We gotta make it." And you say, "Are you making Cadillacs today? Why can't you paint a pink one today?" And he says, "We didn't know you wanted a pink one." And you say, "OK. I'm going to tell you I want a pink one now." And he says, "We don't have any pink paint. Our paint supplier needs some lead time on that paint.' And you say, "Is your paint supplier making paint today?" And he says, "Yeah, but by the time we tell him, it takes two weeks." And you say, "What about leather seats?" And he says, "God, purple leather. It'll take three months to get that."

You follow this back, and you find that it's not how long it takes to make stuff; it's how long it takes the information to flow through the system. And yet electronics move at the speed of light---or very close to it.

So pushing information into the system is sometimes immensely frustrating, and the Web is going to be just as much of a breakthrough in terms of pushing information in as getting information out.

Your view about the Web is an alternative to the commonly held one that it's going to be the renaissance of personal publishing. The person who can't get published through the broadcast media will get a chance to say something.

There's nothing wrong with that. The Web is great because that person can't foist anything on you---you have to go get it. They can make themselves available, but if nobody wants to look at their site, that's fine. To be honest, most people who have something to say get published now.

But when we ask how a person's life is changed by these technologies, pushing information to customize products makes marginal differences. You go to the store and there's a lot of different kinds of toilet paper---some have tulips embossed on them and some don't. You're standing there making a choice, and you want the one with the embossed.

I like the ones without the tulips.

I do, too---and unscented. But that customization is relevant to you for that second but in no other way. For the average person, the possibility to participate as a publisher or a producer has a higher value for them.

I don't necessarily agree. The best way to think of the Web is as a direct-to-customer distribution channel, whether it's for information or commerce. It bypasses all middlemen. And, it turns out, there are a lot of middlepersons in this society. And they generally tend to slow things down, muck things up, and make things more expensive. The elimination of them is going to be profound.

Do you think large institutions are going to be the center of the economy, basically driving it as they are now? Some people say the big company is going to fragment.

I don't see that. There's nothing wrong with big companies. A lot of people think big business in America is a bad thing. I think it's a really good thing. Most people in business are ethical, hard-working, good people. And it's a meritocracy. There are very visible examples in business of where it breaks down but it's probably a lot less than in most other areas of society.

You don't think that structural economic changes will tend to shrink the size of these large companies?

Large companies not paying attention to change will get hurt. The Web will be one more area of significant change and those who don't pay attention will get hurt, while those who see it early enough will get rewarded.

The Web is just going to be one more of those major change factors that businesses face every decade. This decade, in the next 10 years, it's going to be the Web. It's going to be one of them.

But doesn't the Web foster more freedom for individuals?

It is a leveling of hierarchy. An individual can put up a Web site that, if they put enough work into it, looks just as impressive as the largest company in the world.

I love things that level hierarchy, that bring the individual up to the same level as an organization, or a small group up to the same level as a large group with much greater resources. And the Web and the Internet do that. It's a very profound thing, and a very good thing.

Yet the majority of your customers for WebObjects seem to be corporations.

That's correct. And big ones.

Does that cause you any kind of conflict?

Sure. And that's why we're going to be giving our WebObjects software away to individuals and educational institutions for noncommercial use. We've made the decision to give it away.

Shooting the Web in the foot

What do you think about HotJava and the like?

It's going to take a long time for that stuff to become a standard on the Web. And that may shoot the Web in the foot. If the Web becomes too complicated, too fraught with security concerns, then its proliferation may stop---or slow down. The most important thing for the Web is to stay ahead of Microsoft. Not to become more complicated.

That's very interesting. Java pushes the technology toward the client side. Do you find that wrong?

In my opinion? In the next two years? It's dead wrong. Because it may slow down getting to ubiquity. And anything that slows down the Web reaching ubiquity allows Microsoft to catch up. If Microsoft catches up, it's far worse than the fact the Web can't do word processing. Those things can be fixed later.

There's a window now that will close. If you don't cross the finish line in the next two years, Microsoft will own the Web. And that will be the end of it.

Let's assume for a second that many people share an interest in a standard Web that provides a strong alternative to Microsoft. However, when it comes to every individual Web company or Web publisher, they have an interest in making sure that their Web site stays on the edge. I know we do at HotWired. And so we have to get people into HotJava---we have to stay out there---which doesn't bode well for retaining simplicity. We're going to be part of that force pushing people toward a more complicated Web, because we have no choice.

The way you make it more complex is not by throwing stuff on the client side but by providing value, like Federal Express does, by becoming more complex on the server side.

I'm just very concerned that if the clients become smart, the first thing this will do is fracture the Web. There won't be just one standard. There'll be several; they're all going to fight; each one has its problems. So it's going to be very easy to say why just one shouldn't be the standard. And a fractured Web community will play right into Microsoft's hands.

The client-server relationship should be frozen for the next two years, and we shouldn't take it much further. We should just let it be.

 

By collective agreement?

Yeah. By collective agreement. Sure. Go for ubiquity. If Windows can become ubiquitous, so can the existing Web.

How did Windows become ubiquitous?

A force of self-interest throughout the industry made Windows ubiquitous. Compaq and all these different vendors made Windows ubiquitous. They didn't know how to spell software, but they wanted to put something on their machines. That made Windows ubiquitous.

So it just kind of happened.

No, it was sort of an algorithm that got set in motion when everyone's self-interest aligned toward making this happen. And I claim that the same sort of self-interest algorithm is present on the Web. Everyone has a self-interest in making this Web ubiquitous and not having anyone own it---especially not Microsoft.

Is the desktop metaphor going to continue to dominate how we relate to computers, or is there some other metaphor you like better?

To have a new metaphor, you really need new issues. The desktop metaphor was invented because one, you were a stand-alone device, and two, you had to manage your own storage. That's a very big thing in a desktop world. And that may go away. You may not have to manage your own storage. You may not store much before too long.

I don't store anything anymore, really. I use a lot of e-mail and the Web, and with both of those I don't have to ever manage storage. As a matter of fact, my favorite way of reminding myself to do something is to send myself e-mail. That's my storage.

The minute that I don't have to manage my own storage, and the minute I live primarily in a connected versus a stand-alone world, there are new options for metaphors.

GrokKing design

You have a reputation for making well-designed products. Why aren't more products made with the aesthetics of great design?

Design is a funny word. Some people think design means how it looks. But of course, if you dig deeper, it's really how it works. The design of the Mac wasn't what it looked like, although that was part of it. Primarily, it was how it worked. To design something really well, you have to get it. You have to really grok what it's all about. It takes a passionate commitment to really thoroughly understand something, chew it up, not just quickly swallow it. Most people don't take the time to do that.

Creativity is just connecting things. When you ask creative people how they did something, they feel a little guilty because they didn't really do it, they just saw something. It seemed obvious to them after a while. That's because they were able to connect experiences they've had and synthesize new things. And the reason they were able to do that was that they've had more experiences or they have thought more about their experiences than other people.

Unfortunately, that's too rare a commodity. A lot of people in our industry haven't had very diverse experiences. So they don't have enough dots to connect, and they end up with very linear solutions without a broad perspective on the problem. The broader one's understanding of the human experience, the better design we will have.

Is there anything well designed today that inspires you?

Design is not limited to fancy new gadgets. Our family just bought a new washing machine and dryer. We didn't have a very good one so we spent a little time looking at them. It turns out that the Americans make washers and dryers all wrong. The Europeans make them much better---but they take twice as long to do clothes! It turns out that they wash them with about a quarter as much water and your clothes end up with a lot less detergent on them. Most important, they don't trash your clothes. They use a lot less soap, a lot less water, but they come out much cleaner, much softer, and they last a lot longer.

We spent some time in our family talking about what's the trade-off we want to make. We ended up talking a lot about design, but also about the values of our family. Did we care most about getting our wash done in an hour versus an hour and a half? Or did we care most about our clothes feeling really soft and lasting longer? Did we care about using a quarter of the water? We spent about two weeks talking about this every night at the dinner table. We'd get around to that old washer-dryer discussion. And the talk was about design.

We ended up opting for these Miele appliances, made in Germany. They're too expensive, but that's just because nobody buys them in this country. They are really wonderfully made and one of the few products we've bought over the last few years that we're all really happy about. These guys really thought the process through. They did such a great job designing these washers and dryers. I got more thrill out of them than I have out of any piece of high tech in years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  1,公司是否能正面推动经济、社会或者文化发 展? 如果做不到,BG可能就不会再往下看了。比如军火、赌博类公司再便宜,BG不会去看。 2,公司销售额在5年之内能否翻倍? 为什么要讨论销售额?因为BG关注公司成长,销售额是比较简单直观的指标,而利润可有一些方法调节。所以,BG主要先关注销售额,再看现金流。 3,公司5年之后会怎么样? 这是未来5到10年或者5到15年的中间维度,一是看公司的成长空间究竟还有多大,二是考虑5年之后,公司的短期估值会不会下降,会不会变得成熟。 4,公司的竞争优势到底是什么?随着时间会变 强还是变弱? BG认为,如果公司的竞争优势是不断变弱的,将来在更远期挣回现金流的可能性就更低了。 5,公司是否有非常独特的文化?文化是否能够进化? 毕竟要投资这么长时间,对创始人和公司管理文化是非常关注的。特别喜欢创始人领导的公司,而不是说创始人什么都不干,创始人在做房地产,找了一些人在做新公司,要尽量避免这样的公司。 谈到进化在BG看来,大部分公司都会有大公司病,需要看它怎么能维持比较灵活的管理,变大之后还能够保持非常快速的成长,比如亚马逊的day one文化(注:就是始终处在 创业启动状态,充满迷茫和压力,但是充满创造力和颠覆思想 )。 6,公司过去的回报率怎么样? 一方面是考虑到公司的ROE(净资产收益率),二是考虑公司的Margins(利润),看它的过去是不是值得投资,如果每年ROE都不到10个点,可能长期来看也没什么意思。 7,ROE能不能随着时间增长? 有些公司一开始没有盈利,一直在烧钱,5年之后说不定ROE会到20%或者更高,它是一个动态过程。这样的公司BG也会投资,包括一些早期项目,很多公司都是没有盈利的。 8,公司怎么分配资本? 资本现金流无非就是5种方法:再投资、收购、还债、分红、回购股份,要看公司在某个阶段的资本分配是不是最优的。 如果公司明明可以发展更多,结果乱分红了;或者是明明到了特别成熟的时候,还不愿意分红,都是错误的分配资本。 9,公司怎样才能长成5倍? BG关注的是怎样,而不是能不能。这会强迫BG每个人去设想一些未来的可能性,包括公司现在的底层架构能不能够延伸到更多的业务。 比如,早期的亚马逊或者是阿里,连一个概念都没有,BG会考虑这个公司有没有这种机遇,以后去扩展到可触及的市场。 10,市场对公司有哪些误解,哪些事...

产品随想 | 周刊 第62期:求索于主义与问题间

Products OpenRailwayMap   https://www.openrailwaymap.org/ 全世界的铁路基础设施地图 中国铁路地图   http://cnrail.geogv.org/zhcn/about 中文播客榜   https://xyzrank.com/#/hot-podcasts 欣慰,梁文道排名还挺靠前 NetGuard   https://github.com/M66B/NetGuard/ NetGuard provides simple and advanced ways to block access to the internet - no root required. Applications and addresses can individually be allowed or denied access to your Wi-Fi and/or mobile connection. ffmpeg buddy   https://evanhahn.github.io/ffmpeg-buddy/ a friend to help you build ffmpeg commands MaoXian Web Clipper   https://github.com/mika-cn/maoxian-web-clipper?auto_subscribed=false A web extension to clip information from web page. Save it to your local machine to avoid information invalidation. Not bored registration, Not charged. Pake   https://github.com/tw93/Pake 很简单的用 Rust 打包网页生成很小的 Mac App 潮流周刊   https://weekly.tw93.fun/ 挺不错的周刊,推荐之 Mackup   https://github.com/lra/mackup Keep your application settings in sync (OS ...

Steve Jobs: `There's Sanity Returning', 1998

Nobody can doubt the charisma of Steven P. Jobs. The interim CEO of Apple Computer Inc., who returned to the company last July after his ignominious 1985 ouster, has brought back his legendary vision, impatience, and infectious passion for the Macintosh. Jobs spoke to Business Week Correspondent Andy Reinhardt in Apple's stark, fourth-floor boardroom, just after the company rolled out its new software strategy on May 11. Note: This is an extended, online-only version of the Q&A that appears in the May 25, 1998, issue of Business Week. Q: Now that you've introduced the new, bold-looking iMac, are you going to do some radically different products? A: There's a lot of talk about such things -- about handhelds, set-top boxes. A lot of computer companies have been searching for a consumer product. My view is that the personal computer has been the most successful consumer product of the last 10 years. What we have to do, what the industry stopp...

产品爱好者周刊 第36期:走进Linux

Products OpenShot   https://github.com/OpenShot/openshot-qt OpenShot Video Editor is an award-winning free and open-source video editor for Linux, Mac, and Windows 开源的视频剪辑工具,跨平台 Run   https://github.com/The-Run-Philosophy-Organization/run 润学全球官方指定GITHUB,整理润学宗旨、纲领、理论和各类润之实例 Dozer   https://github.com/Mortennn/Dozer Hide menu bar icons on macOS ThisIsWin11   https://github.com/builtbybel/ThisIsWin11 Win11的隐私保护 RoundedTB   https://github.com/torchgm/RoundedTB Add margins, rounded corners and segments to your taskbars! Droptop Four   https://github.com/Droptop-Four/Basic-Version Droptop Four is the fourth iteration of the popular dropdown app launcher for Windows & Rainmeter. LibreTube   https://github.com/Libre-tube/LibreTube An alternative frontend for YouTube, for Android. nheko   https://github.com/Nheko-Reborn/nheko Quaternion   https://github.com/quotient-im/Quaternion 多平台的Matrix客户端 FluffyChat   https://fluffychat.im/ Phone端的Matrix...

毕设采访问卷自己的回答

1.      提一个作品中的有意思的设计点。       毕设中,自己觉得最有趣的一点是,尝试将商业建筑的一层开放给城市绿色空间,让其 作为 公园的一部分,让建筑的入侵感变弱。       很期待上海以后能出现这样的设计,尽管这样的设计短期看对于开发商没有利益,但我认 为 长期看对于城市使用者、对于城市管理者是有好处的,而我也还在思考,怎样去弥补这样 的 设计对于开发商造成的损失,希望能塑造共赢的局面,这个思考、设计的过程自己非常开 心,觉得有意思。 2.      如何看待城市发展过程中新旧交织的困局?设计师能做什么?        城市发展一般是从无到有,发展到一定阶段,最开始的就成了旧的,不可避免地会和新的产生冲突。        作为建筑设计师,面对旧的,我们常思考的是,它好不好?如果好,那新的要与他保持和谐,形式可能有新旧,但内核、设计语言是一致的;如果旧的不好,我们的思维是,趁着新的发展,一并改造、更新,让新旧作为整体面向城市。总的来说,就是设计师要整体考虑,对于旧的不能一味保留,也不能一味摈弃。 3.      完成毕设过程中遇到的困难以及如何解决的?从中收获了什么?        遇到最大的困难是城市总平面设计中,对于基地新旧建筑的考虑,自己常希望能多保留一些,但设计中又发现如何把握度有些困难,后来解决方法是制定一个标准,旧的能不能提供新价值,如果不能,果断抛弃;如果能,留下。        按这样思路,困难算成功克服,小小收获是当你很贪心地想多留东西时,想想它是不是累赘,想清楚就不累了。 4.      导师在你完成毕设过程中的角色?(可以举一个例子)        我的毕设导师是王林教授,她一直是我毕设中的鼓励者和点拨人。     ...

靠谱DNS

常用靠谱DNS 阿里DNS:223.5.5.5    223.6.6.6 114DNS:114.114.114.114  ---有DNS劫持和广告嵌入,域名屏蔽作为 腾讯DNS:119.29.29.29 V2EX DNS:199.91.73.222     178.79.131.110 OpenDNS:208.67.222.222    208.67.220.220    208.67.222.220    208.67.220.222 台湾中华电讯DNS: 168.95.192.1    168.95.192.2 香港宽带: 203.80.96.9    203.80.96.10 无污染DNS  中科大DNS----相对来说国内最少被污染的DNS 202.38.64.1 202.112.20.131 202.141.160.95 202.141.160.99 202.141.176.95 202.141.176.99 202.141.176.93 202.141.162.123 202.38.93.153 202.38.93.153 (教育网) 202.38.93.94 202.141.176.93 (中国移动) 202.141.162.123 (中国电信)  添加两个国人工程师自建的DNS,貌似假设在腾讯网段 115.159.146.99  南方 123.206.21.48  北方   网址 AIXYZ DNS

书房拾遗-第42至45期

  书房拾遗-第42至45期 42期 网络说:持有平安的人,大概率持有万科,而持有平安和万科的人,大概率也持有格力。 后来想通了,这类投资者,内心基本是将“龙头+白马+低市盈率+从股价高点已经大幅调整”这几个条件叠加,然后将其等同于正宗的“价值投资”,所以自然而然地汇总到同一条路上了。 网友:uta:老唐,请问企业价值为什么用现金流折现,而不是用净利润折现? 唐朝:因为净利润不是钱,净利润是账。账不是价值,钱才是价值。 地魔:请问在你的投资体系里,一家公司的ROE低于多少就不值得研究或者投资了? 唐朝:通常低于8%我就不大关注了。 43期 唐朝:银行非常常见的操作。放贷款的同时拉存款,降低了实际贷款额,提高了真实贷款利率。 WDS:没看懂,怎么提高贷款利率? 唐朝 :你获得银行贷款100万,利率5%。但同时要求你存款30万,存款利息2%,你实际贷款多少,成本多少? 唐朝:你一年支付5万利息,收到0.6万利息,实际使用资金70万,所以,你的贷款利率是4.4/70=6.29%。说这个是小学数学,不算夸张吧? 44期 Uta:是不是投资港股市场的股票风险要比A股的股票大? 唐朝:核心在于自己的理念。理念不对,A股港股都是风大浪大;理念对了,港股A股都是闲庭信步。 唐朝:主要是招股书披露的基础知识特别详细,一般我会看看,学习一些行业基础知识。和普通年报一样,没啥特别要注意的地方。 45期 数字货币替代的是现金,微信支付宝可以作为现金支付手段,也可以作为数字货币支付手段。货币的形式和支付的形式,是两码事。 数字货币不是微信支付宝的对手,它是运钞车、ATM机、点钞员、印刷厂……的对手。 Lei:老唐,对于初学者来说的话是先多看财报,还是先多看书籍比较好。谢谢 唐朝:我认为多看财报,不懂的时候查书,是进步最快的方式。 老唐从2017年1月首次介入腾讯至今,只有买入没有卖出,最低买过197.3港币,最高买过607港币,平均买入位置大概在465~470港币之间(就是去年底约480港币的平均买入位置减去所分京东股票价值),目前持有腾讯的市值是八位数,亏损是七位数。 但不装不端,我真没有任何压力。如前所述,真要是爆发核战争,拿股票现金黄金房子都是一码事,没区别;如果没有核战争,等上几年后我几乎100%确定我会是赚钱的,区别无外乎也就是赚几千万还是赚几百万而已。

Rhino Make2d工作流

作者:毛伟伟 链接:https://www.zhihu.com/question/22117854/answer/55730599 来源:知乎 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 rhino下当然是make2d,技巧在于对齐和不同线段的分层,首先,把每个要导出的模型分好图层,把模型移动到稍微离远点有一段距离的地方。对齐,定好角度保存角度,在模型下画一个框,选择第一部分模型和框,隐藏其他,点击保存好的角度,make2d,建立这个部分的make2d图层,这时候是选中的,group,移动命令,键盘敲击0,确定,这个框和make2d的图会回到原点,以此方式做循环。(装逼一下,既然是一样的loop,我是后来写了一个代码去重复这个步骤的,减少了好大一部分工作量) maya,vetor render导出,不多说,有兴趣可以找我或者找网络教学 su,调好显示模式导出pdf就好,经验是,导出纯线框显示模式的pdf不如导出带色不带光影的pdf,因为在ai下能选择同样的颜色的部分,你只需要分好颜色,在ai下选择分层起来就很方便。因为直接导出线框显示模式的pdf,每一段线都是段的选择起来或者描起来极其浪费时间。 这些都是为了导出线框矢量文件(可是是任何软件看你擅长,ai,cdr(我很不想建议,但是我要表达同一擅长方面的软件一个就好)都行)。(所以你说学不学?) ai 下调整各种线宽,line weight绝对是一个很大的学问,比如何使用ai重要百倍。然后箭头什么的尽量都在ai下完成把。 ps的调整是图已经完成,需要在填充下做一些advanced的表达效果。因为ps下的蒙板橡皮擦对图片纹理等等有关图片的素材处理起来太方便。包括光,光暗,图片效果。 id或者ai下做好排版,把这些素材放进去

对话元气森林唐彬森:富翁、海盗与产品经理

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/15gAqbUJk-TTYP9mtkZFnw 战略要向二级市场投资人学习,管理要像 “海盗” 学习,产品要向游戏公司学习。 我们在 B 站晚会上花的钱和某些冠名商一样,但你记得他们的广告吗?不记得。我们要冠名就冠名这一天最好的节目,就只说一个产品——气泡水。当时团队都反对,但我没觉得这是一个重要的事情,多花点钱少花点钱不是主要矛盾。 如果你每年都有好牌,那说明这个牌不够好。你每天都有机会就不是机会。 三十而立,就是要多试多闯。四十不惑,要找到并专注你喜爱的事情。但最后你会发现就是命。你做的买卖本身好不好,决定了谁牛*。中国、韩国、俄罗斯之前最大的三家互联网企业,都是搜索引擎、社交、电商。 有一点我相信,饮料这个市场最终跑不赢游戏,实物消费增长长期一定跑不赢虚拟。人类社会满足高阶需求的产品,会越来越重要,满足基础需求的产品在 GDP 占比会越来越低。 ————Silas:高阶需求,比如Metaverse? 人在一个真实世界里实现自我,太消耗环境资源了么?游戏是让人在虚拟世界里实现自我,环保高效。 ————类似于建筑的3D建模 招这人是因为这是个对产品有爱的人,有爱,且不为钱发愁,才能把产品做出来。 看一个创始人有没有挣过钱,是一个最简单粗暴、证明他有没有能力的方法。 今天你需要 Java,明天需要 PHP,过两年又需要别的,那些东西是不值得学习的。真正有价值的是那些系统、语言、数学等最基本的东西。 (你也参加了中欧商学院、湖畔学院。)我从来没觉得课重要,我交朋友去了。 ————太真实了。 上商学院应该有四个原则:第一是不要面向机会,要面向未来大趋势。第二不要交生意上的伙伴,要交心灵的朋友,好多人去商学院做生意,这种人越做越差。我觉得一个 CEO 是很孤独的,需要一些人喝喝酒聊聊天。第三是不要只寻找变化的东西,要寻找不变的东西。 我就喜欢研究那些挣过钱的人说的话。 ————我也喜欢!