跳至主要内容

The Night Steve Jobs Met Andy Warhol

 

It was dusk, sprinkling and windy outside. Steve Jobs and I hurried along Manhattan’s Central Park West. Steve was carrying a large box—a birthday present for Sean Lennon, who was turning nine. If he hadn’t been murdered four years earlier, John would have been 44. Both father and son shared the same birthday, October 9.

We turned right onto West 72nd Street at the storied Dakota apartment building. To get into the building through the carriageway, we passed through a gathering of fifty or sixty people, many holding lit candles. They were singing, “Give Peace a Chance,” remembering John. A few had tears. We stood with them for a while before going inside.

Before 1980, the Dakota had been known for its famous residents, including the Lennons, Calvin Klein, Boris Karloff and Lauren Bacall, and the movie filmed there, Roman Polanski’s Rosemary’s Baby. Since then it’s been remembered for tragedy—John’s murder on the sidewalk out front. A few months before John died, I’d conducted a lengthy Interview with him and Yoko. It was the final in-depth interview of John’s life. One of the last things he said to me was, “I’m turning forty. Life begins at forty, so they promise. And I believe it, too. I’m, like, excited. Like, what’s going to happen next?”

Steve and I waited for the ancient elevator. “All the girls loved Paul, but John was my favorite Beatle,” he said. “Lennon cut through the bullshit and told it like it was. I still can’t believe they killed him. He was a genius, a beautiful genius.” He said that there had been a period when he was a teenager that he listened exclusively to the Beatles, solo Lennon, and Dylan.

The elevator, with gnarly gargoyles looking down on passengers, creaked slowly upward to the seventh floor. On the landing, Steve knocked on an oversized mahogany door. A man opened it and ushered us in. As instructed, we removed our shoes. Steve found a place to store the large box on the floor, behind a collection of walking sticks.

In the evening light, out the window of the White Room–everything inside was white, including the piano on which John wrote “Imagine”–Central Park was a patchwork of crystal and gray. Across the park, the lights of Fifth Avenue hotels and apartments glittered. The party was in full swing. The guests included Walter Cronkite, Roberta Flack, Harry Nilsson, John Cage, and artists Louise Nevelson, Kenny Scharf, and Keith Haring. Andy Warhol arrived, refusing to take his shoes off. Sean came up and Warhol gave him presents, including a spectacular painting of a heart-shaped candy box and a bracelet he’d made out of pennies. The last time they’d seen each other, Andy had ripped a dollar-bill in two and given half to Sean, who, after thanking him, jokingly asked for the other half. Warhol reached in his pocket and handed Sean a wad of torn-in-half dollars.

Dinner was served and then a birthday cake in the shape of a grand piano. Afterward, the adults talked, and Stevee asked Sean if he’d like his present. Following Sean, Steve lugged the box he’d brought down the hallway to Sean’s bedroom, also white, but that one had shelves of robots. Steve opened the carton and lifted out his present.

Steve had boyish dark hair parted on the side. He wore jeans and a white dress shirt, sleeves rolled up. He sprawled on the floor in front of a computer. Called Macintosh, it was boxy, taller than it was wide, beige, the size of a breadbox set on its side.

Steve turned the computer on, and Sean, sitting on the floor near him, stared at the six-inch, black-and-white built-in monitor. He watched Steve push a cigarette-box-sized contraption that was attached to the computer by a wire along the floor. Steve said it was called a mouse. When he guided it along, an arrow on the screen moved, too. Steve moved the arrow over a tiny picture of a paintbrush and clicked to launch a program called MacPaint. He looked at Sean. “You try,” he said.

Sean took control of the mouse, and rolled the small box along the floor. Steve said, “Now hold the button down while you move it and see what happens.” Sean did, and a thin, jagged, black line, appeared on the screen.

Sean, entranced, said, “Cool!” He clicked the mouse button, pushed it around, and on the screen appeared shapes and lines, which he erased (Steve explained how to use an on-screen eraser), and then he drew a sort of lion-camel and then a figure that he said was Boy George.

A few people entered the room and stood over Sean and Steve, watching over their shoulders. I looked up. “Hmmm,” said one, Andy Warhol. “What is this? Look at this, Keith. This is incredible!” Keith Haring nodded. Mesmerized, the artists stared at the moving line.

Steve continued working with Sean, with Warhol and Haring watching, and then Andy asked, “Can I try?”

Warhol took Sean’s spot in front of the computer and Steve showed him how to maneuver and click the mouse. Andy didn’t get it; he lifted and waved the mouse, as if it were a conductor’s baton. Jobs gently explained that the mouse worked when it was pushed along a surface. Warhol kept lifting it until Steve placed his hand on Warhol’s and guided it along the floor. Finally Andy began drawing, staring at the “pencil” as it drew on the screen.

Warhol was spellbound–people who knew him know the way he tuned out everything extraneous when he was entranced by whatever it was at the moment–gliding the mouse, eyes affixed to the monitor. Keith was bent over watching. Andy, his eyes wide, looked up, stared at Haring, and said, “Look! Keith! I drew a circle!”

In Warhol’s diary, published after his death, he wrote about that night: “We went into Sean’s bedroom—and there was a kid there setting up the Apple computer that Sean had gotten as a present, the Macintosh model.

“I said that once some man had been calling me a lot wanting to give me one,” Warhol wrote, “but I’d never called him back or something, and then the kid looked up and said, ‘Yeah, that was me. I’m Steve Jobs.’ And he looked so young like a college guy. …Then he gave me a lesson on drawing with it. It only comes in black and white now, but they’ll soon make it in color. …I felt so old and out of it with this whiz guy right there who’d helped invent it.” In the diaries Warhol concluded his entry, writing that he left the party that night and “felt so blue.” It had nothing to do with his frustration drawing on the computer; he was jealous of Haring. “Before I was Sean’s best grownup friend and now I think Keith is. They really hit it off. He invited Keith to his party for kids the next day and I don’t think I was invited and I’m hurt.”

After half an hour, the artists returned to the party to hang out with Yoko and the other guests, and Sean left for a while to do an interview with Yoko. When he returned, he found Steve and, for the rest of the evening, the two were glued to the computer.

***

I had conducted the Interview with John and Yoko in late July and early August 1980. I met Steve under the same circumstances; the interview I conducted in late summer and early spring of 1984 ran in February of that year. Jobs was 28. It’s difficult for most people to remember (if they were born then) that pre-iPhone, iPad, iPod, iMac era when the most popular personal computer consisted of a suitcase-sized base, heavy monochrome monitor, and keyboard, made by what was then one of the world’s most formidable companies, IBM. It ran on an operating system called MS-DOS– “MS” stood for Microsoft–and had 64 kilobytes of random-access memory. Programs came and files were stored on five-and-a-quarter-inch floppy disks that looked like rectangular 45s in cardboard sleeves. To work on a file–a spreadsheet, say–one had to open it by holding down the control key while pressing O and then typing in a filename.

At the time, people listened to music on the Sony Walkman that played cassette tapes. They read newspapers—on paper. If you mentioned Apple to most people, they’d assume you were referring to the Beatles record label—or something you ate.

Jobs was already a superstar, an idol; there has never been a businessman with as zealous of a following. For many people, he has become an integral, indispensable and even defining part of life. In an almost scary way he exists like a Horcrux in the heads of people who experience the world and carry on relationships through devices that are a reflection of his intellect and taste. It’s unprecedented that so many people throughout the world were as emotional about the retirement of a CEO as they were when, last September, Steve announced that he was stepping down from Apple. It’s also unprecedented that so many people were as devastated by the death of a man who was, after all, an entrepreneur and businessman. It was well known that Jobs had been ill–he had pancreatic cancer and, in 2009, had a liver transplant–but his death was still a shock. At Apple stores around the country, his fans made shrines of flowers, letters and apples.

The original personal computers, from the 1970s, were mostly for geeks in high-school computer clubs before Jobs and his partner, Steve Wozniak, founded Apple in 1976. Their first product, the Apple I, was a hobbyist’s toy. The following year, Apple released the Apple II, which was used in schools, and, to a lesser extent, homes, where parents did accounting, word processing, and stored recipes, and kids did their homework and played computer games. Apple was the uncontested leader in the modest personal-computer market in 1981, when IBM, at the time the most formidable name in mainframe computers, released its PC. The Apple II never cracked the business market, which was where the big money was. To most of corporate America, Apple’s computers were for kids, not Fortune 500 companies. IBM was a trusted brand, and it trounced Apple. By 1984, Apple’s market share had declined by half.

Jobs attempted to fight back with new, more powerful models, including the Apple III and Lisa, but they were failures. In the early 1980s, industry wags speculated that another Apple failure could sink the company, and there were even rumors that an IBM-Apple takeover was imminent. (Typical of Apple bravado, when I met him, Randy Wigginton, a 24-year-old software designer, squelched the rumor. “IBM already said they weren’t for sale,” he cracked.) During our interview, Jobs admitted he was “betting the store” on the Macintosh. “Yeah, we felt the weight of the world on our shoulders,” he said. “We knew that we had to pull the rabbit out of the hat with Macintosh, or else we’d never realize the dreams we had for either the products or the company.”

***

The interview scheduled, I arrived at Apple headquarters in Cupertino and was escorted to a conference room called Picasso. A meeting with four of his chief software designers was underway. Steve was reputed to be an unconventional CEO, and he was. During the course of our interview, he would talk about his influences that included everything from the book Be Here Now, by Baba Ram Das, to John and Yoko, to lengthy conversations he’d had with his business heroes Edwin Land, the founder of Polaroid, and Akio Moritz, founder of Sony. Indeed, the Jobs I witnessed in action was unlike other corporate executives I’d met. In the conference room, I noticed was that it was the first time I’d arrived at an interview with a corporate CEO and felt overdressed. Jobs was in a flannel shirt, jeans, and sneakers, whereas I was dressed more like another of Jobs’ visitors that day, California Governor Jerry Brown, who wore a black suit.

Though the Mac had been extravagantly announced and forty thousand computers were selling a month, it wasn’t bug-free, and Jobs wasn’t pleased. The Apple engineers in the room, all on the Mac team, appeared exhausted. Later I learned that other than quick naps on the floor under their desks, they hadn’t slept in weeks, because they were furiously working to fix the software glitches. Undeterred by the presence of a journalist, Steve laid into them, and they looked miserable. One held back tears. After berating them, however, Jobs’ diatribe turned into a passionate pep talk. “We’re almost at the finish line,” he said. “Remember, we aren’t just building a product. We’re making history. We’re changing the world. Someday you’ll tell your children you were part of this.”

This wasn’t the last time Steve claimed that he wasn’t merely making software and hardware, but was fomenting revolution. He would go on to say as much at the announcement of almost every new Apple computer and other product. Over the decades since I interviewed him, I’ve profiled founders, CEOs, and presidents of dozens of high-tech companies in California’s Silicon Valley, Tokyo, Kyoto, Moscow, London, Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities. Almost every one of them described his or her company and product as revolutionary–“Our company will change life as we know it”–even when they were doing little more than providing new ways to buy books, do payroll, or flirt. But it was Jobs who set the bar. When I interviewed Oracle founder Larry Ellison, he told me, “People ask how much difference one person can make. Steve Jobs is the answer.” Edward Tian, one of the fathers of the Chinese Internet, told me that as a young boy in Beijing, he became inspired by Jobs idea that computers are not just computing machines, but tools with the inherent ability to change lives. Steve Jobs gave the computer industry a much greater goal: to make a better world,” Tian said. The idea began to consume me.” Few would argue that the computer is transforming China, once again changing the world.

***

I sat across from Steve and turned on my twin tape recorders and opened my reporter’s notebook that was filled with dozens of pages of questions and notes, but Jobs stopped me. He wanted to know if I wrote on a computer or was stuck in the “Neanderthal” world of typewriters.

I explained that a few years earlier I had an Apple II computer on which I wrote articles (including the John and Yoko interview), printing out the final drafts on a dot-matrix printer that spit out paper like a tickertape. However, in 1981, I bought a first-generation IBM PC. When Jobs heard that I’d abandoned the Apple II for a PC, and, as I said, it had served me well, he looked at me as if I had betrayed American secrets to the Nazis in World War II. Then he smiled. “OK. Here’s a challenge. Try a Mac. Write your article on it and compare it to the PC. We’ll see what you think.” It was an intriguing idea to test-drive a computer as I interviewed its creator, and so I agreed. The next day a loaner showed up at my home.

The interview continued off and on over two months. There were sessions at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, where there were video games, a ping pong table, and a stereo with six-foot speakers blaring the Rolling Stones in the central gathering area in the Mac building. We met in conference rooms–besides Picasso, there was da Vinci. Jobs occasionally grabbed fresh carrot or vegetable juice from a refrigerator in a snack room. (I learned that the juice budget for the Mac group was $200,000 a year.)

I’d been warned that Jobs liked to walk while he talked, but hadn’t considered that I should have gone into training to keep apace. He dashed around Apple like a power walker obsessed, making brief pit stops to talk to programmers, hardware engineers, department managers, marketers, product designers, and customers meeting his sales teams. We walked during subsequent interview sessions in San Francisco, along the waterfront and through North Beach; on the Stanford campus; in the hills above Woodside; through redwoods in Jack London State Park in Sonoma County, and along steep trails in the high Sierra near Aspen, Colorado. Unsurprisingly, Jobs was exceptionally bright about most subjects, but in Aspen he stopped a passerby to ask, “What are all these trees with the white bark?”

For our meetings, Jobs often showed up in a Porsche, but otherwise had few of the accouterments normally associated with wealth (though at the time he was already worth more than a quarter of a billion dollars). When we weren’t walking, we often talked over meals, usually sushi or some macrobiotic combination of lettuce, beans, and rice. (A couple years later, for a period of two weeks, he went on a grape juice fast. The juice was hand pressed by my brother, who for awhile worked for Steve as chef and caretaker of a home Steve bought in Woodside, California.)

Over the course of a half dozen weeks, Jobs fielded hundreds of questions, including ones about his background (for the first time, he talked about being adopted, but said he didn’t want to reveal details about his search for his biological parents, because he didn’t want to hurt the feelings of the couple who raised him); his wealth (he laughed about losing $200,000,000 in one day); the founding, with Steve Wozniak, of Apple (in a garage, which by then, as I wrote, had already taken on the aura of Abraham Lincoln’s log cabin); his stint at Atari, the gaming company behind Pong; a trip to Tibet, during which a guru shaved his head; his education (college and LSD); his relationship with Wozniak; the Apple I, II, III, and Lisa computers; his competitors (he railed against what he viewed as the devil incarnate, IBM), and the new Mac (the future of computing and portal into a world of unimaginable possibilities). Steve talked as excitedly about fonts and internal storage devices as politics, but he became most animated when he answered questions about his inspirations and his vision of the impact of technology in the future.

The launch of the commercial Internet and World Wide Web was more than a decade away, and yet at the time Steve envisioned “a nationwide communications network” linked by computers. “We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people—as remarkable as the telephone,” he said. I was skeptical and asked him to be more specific. “What kind of breakthrough are you talking about?” He answered, “I can only begin to speculate. You don’t know exactly what’s going to result, but you know it’s something very big and very good.” I pressed; I wanted more than very big and very good. He thought for awhile before responding, “A hundred years ago, if somebody had asked Alexander Graham Bell, ‘What are you going to be able to do with a telephone?’ he wouldn’t have been able to tell him the ways the telephone would affect the world. He didn’t know that people would use the telephone to call up and find out what movies were playing that night or to order some groceries or call a relative on the other side of the globe.”

The interviews continued. More walks. One late night, we trudged up the famously steep streets of San Francisco’s Russian Hill. We were still walking at 3 in the morning, when I asked about his long-term vision for Apple. He answered that he thought the company could have an impact beyond its computers. “I think Apple has a chance to be the model of a Fortune 500 company in the late Eighties and early Nineties,” he said. “Ten to 15 years ago, if you asked people to make a list of the five most exciting companies in America, Polaroid and Xerox would have been on everyone’s list. Where are they now? They would be on no one’s list today. What happened? Companies, as they grow to become multibillion-dollar entities, somehow lose their vision. They insert lots of layers of middle management between the people running the company and the people doing the work. They no longer have an inherent feel or a passion about the products. The creative people, who are the ones who care passionately, have to persuade five layers of management to do what they know is the right thing to do.

“What happens in most companies is that you don’t keep great people under working environments where individual accomplishment is discouraged rather than encouraged. The great people leave and you end up with mediocrity. I know, because that’s how Apple was built. Apple is an Ellis Island company. Apple is built on refugees from other companies. These are the extremely bright individual contributors who were troublemakers at other companies.”

After two more weeks of interviewing, I gathered tapes and transcripts and began writing on the Macintosh. At first I found the mouse awkward (rather than pointing and clicking, I was used to pressing CTR K and D to save a file), but I quickly got the hang of it. Yes, it was easier to use, and, as Jobs described it, more “intuitive.” In the interview, he explained the thinking behind the mouse. “If I want to tell you there is a spot on your shirt, I’m not going to do it linguistically: ‘There’s a spot on your shirt 14 centimeters down from the collar and three centimeters to the left of your button.’ If you have a spot—‘There!’ [He pointed]–I’ll point to it. Pointing is a metaphor we all know. We’ve done a lot of studies and tests on that, and it’s much faster to do all kinds of functions, such as cutting and pasting, with a mouse, so it’s not only easier to use but more efficient.”

I’d completed about three-quarters of the interview when Steve called–he was in my neighborhood. At the time I was living in Glen Ellen, a small town in Sonoma County, more than an hour’s drive from San Francisco. Steve came rolling up the dirt road in the Porsche. He said he wanted to clarify a few things. We sat on a porch swing and went over them. Mostly they were minor details, but just as Jobs obsessed with every aspect of the Macintosh, he obsessed about everything else he did, including our interview. He clarified some dates. He wanted to be sure that I had down the names of people who had worked on various components and software for the Mac. He said he’d thought of something he’d said and thought he could phrase it more succinctly. I explained that the interview was almost complete, and it was too late to include new information, though I’d make factual corrections. He didn’t care. Nor did he slow down when I told him that I had to get back to work. He talked for another hour and a half. I included his comments about his hero, Polaroid funder Edwin Land, who he called “one of the troublemakers.” Jobs said, “He dropped out of Harvard and founded Polaroid. Not only was he one of the great inventors of our time but, more important, he saw the intersection of art and science and business and built an organization to reflect that. Polaroid did that for some years, but eventually Dr. Land, one of those brilliant troublemakers, was asked to leave his own company–which is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard of. So Land, at 75, went off to spend the remainder of his life doing pure science, trying to crack the code of color vision. The man is a national treasure. I don’t understand why people like that can’t be held up as models: This is the most incredible thing to be–not an astronaut, not a football player–but this.”

I’d completed a first draft by Friday before the Monday deadline. On Saturday morning, I reread the piece and began editing. I was polishing a section when without warning the words on the screen vanished. I clicked the mouse and nothing happened. I felt sick. My article–days of work–was gone. I continued to click the mouse and type on the keyboard, but everything was frozen. I was horrified. There was no backup.

Another user would have to call Apple tech support, but I called Jobs. After all, this experiment was his idea. On the phone, he walked me through a few attempts at fixing the computer. I couldn’t even get it to turn off, so he instructed me to try a high-tech fix: unplug it and then start it up again. The computer turned on, but there was no sign of my interview, even when I followed Jobs’ directions, clicking the mouse, opening hidden files, searching where he told me to search. I was panicked, but Jobs was said he knew what to do, that I should stand by.

On Sunday morning, Jobs’ solution arrived in the person of Randy Wigginton, the author of MacWrite, the program with which I’d used to write the Interview, who’d I’d briefly met at Apple. Wigginton, with blonde hair, wearing a Lacoste shirt, and (of course) jeans, was 23 years old. Hired at sixteen, he had been Apple’s sixth employee.

I led Wigginton to my office and the dead Mac. He worked on it for a couple hours during which Jobs called to check in. I asked Wigginton how it was going and he shook his head. He continued working and I began writing again–starting from scratch–but on the IBM. If ever you’ve lost something you’ve worked on on a computer, and if you have no backup, you understand the desolate feeling of staring again at a blank screen, starting over.

Wigginton was more haggard than when I last saw him at Apple, but he didn’t take a break. I was beginning to write on the PC when Wigginton came in to find me. After four hours, he’d found the lost and corrupted file somewhere inside some recess of the computer’s memory, and he reconstructed it.

I went back to work.

Later, Wigginton told me that he almost fell asleep at the wheel as he drove home. He made it to his couch, where he passed out from exhaustion. Minutes later, Jobs called, waking him, telling he needed him in the office. Wigginton rushed in. “Steve was out to change the world,” Wigginton said, “but to be honest, a lot of us never bought into that. Like many of us at Apple, especially on the Mac team, I worked 22 hours a day for one reason, to please Steve. That’s what he demanded of us, and that’s what we cared about. If he criticized us we were crushed, but we lived for his praise.”

***

I’d flown to New York and was working in the magazine’s office there when Steve called. He happened to be in New York, too; he’d bought an apartment in the two-towered San Remo apartment building, which had been built in 1929, and was meeting with the architect IM Pei about renovating it. Pei had never worked on a personal residence, but, as Wigginton inferred, people didn’t say no to Jobs, who was nothing if not persuasive. John Scully learned this, too. As Jobs described in the interview, a couple years earlier he had recruited Scully, then president of Pepsi, to join Apple and help him run the company. Scully was balking at the offer when Jobs famously challenged him, “Are you going to keep selling sugar water to children when you could be changing the world?” Scully joined Apple.

I had plans the evening Steve called me in New York. I was attending Sean Lennon’s birthday party at the Dakota, and called and asked Yoko if I could bring Steve along. She said she’d enjoy meeting him. I called him back and invited him. He said it sounded fun.

After the party, Steve and I left the Dakota. A few dozen people were still outside with candles. Someone plaintively strummed a guitar and a girl sang, “Across the Universe.”

Steve and I walked down 72nd Street—it was raining harder. We talked about the saddest moment at the party. Harry Nilsson had led everyone in a song for Sean, a rousing “For He’s a Jolly Good Fellow.” Afterward, Sean said, “If my dad were here we’d sing, ‘For they’re jolly good fellows.’”

We walked in silence for a while and then I mentioned the party again, what seemed to be an extraordinary moment, Andy Warhol thrilled to have drawn a circle. Steve seemed less interested in the famous artist drawing on the Mac than in Sean. He explained, “It’s that older people sit down and ask, ‘What is it?’ but a child asks, ‘What can I do with it?’”

***

At one point during the Interview, Steve had said, “I’ll always stay connected with Apple.” Of course it was prescient, and particularly ironic because he would soon be fired by the Apple board and John Scully. Jobs continued, “I hope that throughout my life I’ll sort of have the thread of my life and the thread of Apple weave in and out of each other, like a tapestry. There may be a few years when I’m not there, but I’ll always come back.” He did. Scully left, Apple was again in trouble, and Steve, who in the break from Apple founded NeXT, another computer company, and acquired the fledgling animation studio, Pixar, from George Lucas, returned. He continued, “And that’s what I may try to do. The key thing to remember about me is that I’m still a student. I’m still in boot camp. If anyone is reading any of my thoughts, I’d keep that in mind. Don’t take it all too seriously. If you want to live your life in a creative way, as an artist, you have to not look back too much. You have to be willing to take whatever you’ve done and whoever you were and throw them away. What are we, anyway? Most of what we think we are is just a collection of likes and dislikes, habits, patterns. At the core of what we are is our values, and what decisions and actions we make reflect those values. That is why it’s hard doing interviews and being visible: As you are growing and changing, the more the outside world tries to reinforce an image of you that it thinks you are, the harder it is to continue to be an artist, which is why a lot of times, artists have to go, ‘Bye. I have to go. I’m going crazy and I’m getting out of here.’ And they go and hibernate somewhere. Maybe later they re-emerge a little differently.”

The evening of party, Steve and I turned on Columbus Avenue and talked more about the long-term promise of technology. I asked Steve what was coming down the road—way down the road, how else technology would change life, and if he would be at the forefront of whatever it is. “That’s for the next generation,” he said. “I think an interesting challenge in this area of intellectual inquiry is to grow obsolete gracefully, in the sense that things are changing so fast that certainly by the end of the Eighties, we really want to turn over the reins to the next generation, whose fundamental perceptions are state-of-the-art perceptions, so that they can go on, stand on our shoulders and go much further. It’s a very interesting challenge, isn’t it? How to grow obsolete with grace.”

I asked what he might do if he were to retire from Apple. With a few hundred million dollars, he could do anything he wanted to. He took a moment to answer, and when he did, he said, “Well, my favorite things in life are books, sushi and….” He stopped. “My favorite things in life don’t cost any money. It’s really clear that the most precious resource we all have is time.”

Popular posts from 产品随想的博客

BG投资十问(Baillie Gifford)

  1,公司是否能正面推动经济、社会或者文化发 展? 如果做不到,BG可能就不会再往下看了。比如军火、赌博类公司再便宜,BG不会去看。 2,公司销售额在5年之内能否翻倍? 为什么要讨论销售额?因为BG关注公司成长,销售额是比较简单直观的指标,而利润可有一些方法调节。所以,BG主要先关注销售额,再看现金流。 3,公司5年之后会怎么样? 这是未来5到10年或者5到15年的中间维度,一是看公司的成长空间究竟还有多大,二是考虑5年之后,公司的短期估值会不会下降,会不会变得成熟。 4,公司的竞争优势到底是什么?随着时间会变 强还是变弱? BG认为,如果公司的竞争优势是不断变弱的,将来在更远期挣回现金流的可能性就更低了。 5,公司是否有非常独特的文化?文化是否能够进化? 毕竟要投资这么长时间,对创始人和公司管理文化是非常关注的。特别喜欢创始人领导的公司,而不是说创始人什么都不干,创始人在做房地产,找了一些人在做新公司,要尽量避免这样的公司。 谈到进化在BG看来,大部分公司都会有大公司病,需要看它怎么能维持比较灵活的管理,变大之后还能够保持非常快速的成长,比如亚马逊的day one文化(注:就是始终处在 创业启动状态,充满迷茫和压力,但是充满创造力和颠覆思想 )。 6,公司过去的回报率怎么样? 一方面是考虑到公司的ROE(净资产收益率),二是考虑公司的Margins(利润),看它的过去是不是值得投资,如果每年ROE都不到10个点,可能长期来看也没什么意思。 7,ROE能不能随着时间增长? 有些公司一开始没有盈利,一直在烧钱,5年之后说不定ROE会到20%或者更高,它是一个动态过程。这样的公司BG也会投资,包括一些早期项目,很多公司都是没有盈利的。 8,公司怎么分配资本? 资本现金流无非就是5种方法:再投资、收购、还债、分红、回购股份,要看公司在某个阶段的资本分配是不是最优的。 如果公司明明可以发展更多,结果乱分红了;或者是明明到了特别成熟的时候,还不愿意分红,都是错误的分配资本。 9,公司怎样才能长成5倍? BG关注的是怎样,而不是能不能。这会强迫BG每个人去设想一些未来的可能性,包括公司现在的底层架构能不能够延伸到更多的业务。 比如,早期的亚马逊或者是阿里,连一个概念都没有,BG会考虑这个公司有没有这种机遇,以后去扩展到可触及的市场。 10,市场对公司有哪些误解,哪些事...

产品随想 | 周刊 第127期:晨光只开一刻钟,但比千年松,并无甚不同

Cherry Studio   https://github.com/CherryHQ/cherry-studio Cherry Studio is a desktop client that supports for multiple LLM providers. Support deepseek-r1 Aalto Repository beta   https://repo.aalto.fi/ Images, sounds and videos from Aalto University 这个系列,价值极高 Nokia Design Archive   https://nokiadesignarchive.aalto.fi/ 芬兰这个国家很了不起 对话影石刘靖康:两代未出现划时代的产品,就会沦为平庸的品牌   https://www.geekpark.net/news/308996 还挺喜欢这个创始人的,有一种海盗的内涵 从哈佛、明星创业者到酷家乐副总裁,苏奇的传奇   https://app.modaiyun.com/mdy/article/3FO4K4W0M259 WHO关于猫狗咬伤、抓伤的处理建议 动物咬伤: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/animal-bites 狂犬病: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/rabies 关于狂犬病的10个事实: https://www.who.int/zh/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/rabies INDIGO 新年直播(2025)   https://www.youtube.com/live/ZIgPvSDGAfY 对2024年AI发展的回顾部分特别好 Artab   https://github.com/get-artab/artab Get Inspired by the World's Greatest Artworks Every Time You Open a New Tab. Extension Available for Chrome, Edge, and...

产品随想 | 周刊 第126期:Think of your life as a rainbow arcing across the horizon of this world

FolderPaint   https://github.com/MichaelTr7/FolderPaint Folder colour changing application for macOS. 乔布斯说:“对于我和苹果公司的许多人来说,索尼的盛田昭夫是最大的灵感来源之一。我希望我们今天的所想所为能让他会心一笑。” 乔布斯甚至从索尼挖走了一位顶级设计师。哈特穆特·艾斯林格被苹果挖走前,已在 100 多种索尼产品的创造中发挥了重要作用。 供职于索尼时,艾斯林格所在的设计工作室与管理办公室和工厂车间享有同等地位。他说,这样有助于促进公司生产和设计团队之间在一定程度上达成团结,这正是乔布斯试图重建的团结。 艾斯林格指出:“乔布斯有能力洞察事物的好坏,却不知道如何实现以及如何通过组织去构建。因此,我们向苹果提出的第一个建议是,赋予设计师一定的话语权。” 斯卡利表示,乔布斯和盛田之间的深厚友谊和相互敬重可以归结为对于设计的共同热忱。 “他们以非常积极的方式产生了共鸣”,斯卡利说,“两位来自不同文化背景的创始人共聚一堂,这是非常难能可贵的。他们讨论设计原则,却从不谈及商业模式。” “Think of your life as a rainbow arcing across the horizon of this world. You appear, have a chance to blaze in the sky, then you disappear.” City Lights Bookstore   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_Lights_Bookstore?useskin=vector 旧金山的城市之光独立书店 Vesuvio Cafe   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vesuvio_Cafe?useskin=vector 好奇怪,这家Cafe居然没有太多的介绍 “One of the things that I was fortunate of was to see and understand the context of San Francisco through the eyes of Steve Jobs,” Mr. Ive said. “He kn...

产品随想 | 周刊 第68期:Glory to Z-Library

Products Anna’s Archive   https://annas-archive.org/ Search engine of shadow libraries: books, papers, comics, magazines. Z-Library不会消失,只会激励更多 ReVanced Manager   https://github.com/revanced/revanced-manager The official ReVanced Manager based on Flutter. YouTube免广告 Gopeed   https://github.com/monkeyWie/gopeed High speed downloader that supports all platforms. All Platforms,非常霸气,除了iOS,确实都支持了 The Twitter archive   https://github.com/timhutton/twitter-archive-parser Python code to parse a Twitter archive and output in various ways 逃离Twitter Ideas 吴晓波|“我们这是怎么了?”   https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/680826.html 我辈需保持那股企业家的精气神 Worth Moving to Sweden as Engineers?   https://hongchao.me/living-and-working-in-sweden-as-engineers/ 瑞典工作10年的华人工程师,分享自己的看法 Murray Newton Rothbard 默里·罗思巴德   https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/穆瑞·羅斯巴德 米塞斯学生,也是推崇自由主义、开放社会 个人工具箱(2022 年 11 月 16 日更新)   https://github.com/pseudoyu/yu-tools 我的个人工具箱 (设备, macOS 软件, iOS Apps...) Design 2022台北...

产品随想 | 周刊 第39期:《自由秩序原理》

Products Exodus   https://github.com/Exodus-Privacy/exodus-android-app Exodus is an Android application that let you know what trackers are embedded in apps installed on your smartphone using the εxodus plateform. It let you also know the permissions required by any apps on your smartphone. 检测你Android机子获取权限、嵌入追踪SDK的 simplewall   https://github.com/henrypp/simplewall Simple tool to configure Windows Filtering Platform (WFP) which can configure network activity on your computer. Mem Reduct Lightweight real-time memory management application to monitor and clean system memory on your computer. 内存清理工具,Windows上挺多这类小工具,很有意思 Squad303   https://1920.in/ 提供大家一个方式,告诉俄罗斯人,乌克兰在发生什么 Chameleon   https://github.com/sereneblue/chameleon WebExtension port of Random Agent Spoofer 帮助隐匿浏览器信息 CanvasBlocker   https://github.com/kkapsner/CanvasBlocker 浏览器指纹识别是丧心病狂 Alpine Linux   https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/Alpine_Linux 以安全为理念的Linux分支 Wirecutter   https://www.nytimes.com...

产品随想 | 张鸣论中国传统政治

原始文章目录 张鸣:皇权不确定性下的统治术——传统中国官场机会主义溯源   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/68897.html 张鸣:从科举制到市场经济转型——官本位的源流及滥觞   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/59273.html 张鸣:权力边界何在,实话空间几许?——论中国政治传统中的权力与真理关系   https://www.aisixiang.com/data/67054.html Insight: 中国自秦汉以来一直是官僚化的帝制结构,虽然皇帝最终要凭借官僚这个中介才能统治国家,但官员的权力来源和合法性依据都是皇权。官僚机器只是帝制的“车轮”。所以,皇帝要怎么样,官员只要迎合,就能获利。只有在皇帝明显违反常识道理、造成重大灾祸之时,官员才可能凭借儒家伦理对皇帝提出批评。理性选择的结果使得官员更多地趋向于顺从皇帝。 ——符合历史以来的感知 中国尽管有两千多年官僚制的传统,但守规矩、遵法制、走程序的现代理性官僚制度却一直都没有建立起来。考试取官的确是理性官僚制的一个重要因素,但中国古代官僚制只是万里长征走完了第一步,然后就再也不走了。隋唐科举制建立的初衷也并非建设官僚体系,而是防止贵族垄断官职,强化君权。科举制度越来越严密,选拔出来的人才也愈发精英化。但是,官僚的行为却没有程式化和规法化。官员的个人行为偏好往往直接影响一地的发展。 ——如何再往前走一步,可以看看新加坡 官员的行为模式往往以皇帝的喜好为风向标。一般来说,皇帝喜欢什么,一个朝代就兴什么。汉初皇帝喜欢黄老,臣子们就清静无为;东汉皇帝喜欢儒生,则臣子们多为经学家;唐初皇帝喜人上书言事,则多诤谏之徒;到晚唐,皇帝喜欢佛教了,则多礼佛之士;清代嘉庆之后,皇帝提倡节俭,带头穿补丁衣服,则满朝文武衣服上都打了补丁,有的补丁比衣服本身还贵。 ——Interesting 皇帝行为的不确定性,势必导致官员行为无法程序化、规范化,而皇帝行为的不确定往往是由统治术决定的,属刻意为之。多数王朝都外儒内法,崇尚权术,甚至迷信权术。秦始皇和丞相李斯之间,有过一个小故事。李斯随从车马过盛,很是招摇,皇帝看了不高兴。随行的宦官就把这事告诉了李斯,李斯于是轻车简从,低调起来。秦始皇马上知道身边有人泄密,又审不出来,于是把当时在身边的人都杀...

信息流的初衷是节省用户时间

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nMZzLkEe7Cfk6Wu5560m9w 讲述信息流前世今生,讽刺的是信息流发展之初是为了让用户在短时间内找到最需要自己关注的内容,现在却成为消磨时间、捕捉用户兴趣的一个作用。

A Tribute to a Great Artist: Steve Jobs

  Steve Jobs, who died October 5 after resigning in August as CEO of Apple, the company he co-founded, had many talents. But what set him apart from other computer wizards was his artistic sense. He continually used the word “taste” in explaining what was ready to be manufactured at Apple, and what wasn’t ready yet—what he had to reject. The Apple computer, the iPhone, the iPad and the iPod are all strikingly beautiful objects; the clarity of their visual design matches the way they function. It’s clear that Steve Jobs was an artist and that his artistry worked at many levels: it was a visual sensitivity that extended outward to a way of thinking about how things worked and how different variables could interact with each other in a pleasing harmony. Where did this ability come from? Jobs gave some credit for his success to a seemingly unlikely source—a course on calligraphy that he took as an undergraduate at Reed College, a course established by a maverick profes...

巴菲特致股东信-1969年

 编者笔记: 巴菲特正式清算合伙人企业。 我把它们视为实业,而非股票,如果长期而言实业的业绩良好,那么股票也会有着同样的表现。 我不想解散一个雇佣了1100人的生意,尤其在管理层已经在努力改善公司相对整体行业的表现,而且也取得了合理结果的时候,同时该业务目前尚不需要额外的资本投入。 但是如果未来我们面临需要投入大量资本,或者该业务遭受相当程度的损失时,我将做出不同的决定。 原文: 1969 年 5 月 29 日 致合伙人: 大概在 18 个月以前,我曾经给你们致信,认为投资环境和我个人情况的变化将导致我对我 们未来业绩预期做出调整。 我当时所讨论的投资环境 ,已经变得更加的恶劣且令人沮丧 。也许我仅仅是缺乏从精神层面 进行调整的能力。(正如一位评论家对超过 40 岁的证券分析师所评价的那样:“他们知道太 多如今已不再适用的东西 。”) 虽然如此,就我看来: (1) 在过去的二十年中,对于数量(定量)分析方法所能把握的机会 之水已经逐渐干涸 ,到今天可以说是已经完全枯竭了 ;( 2 )我们的资金基数已经达到一个亿 , 也就是说不超过三百万的投资量对于我们净资产的影响几乎可以忽略不计 ,实际上我们的投 资标的的市值已经不能低于一亿美元 ;( 3 )大量地对于投资的专注已经导致市场的交易行为 变得极度追求短期的利润,市场的投机性大大增加。 在 1967 年 10 月的信中我亦提到个人境遇的变化是我调整我们未来收益预期的最重要的原 因。我表达了自己不想再在合伙公司上注入我 100% 的精力的愿望。然而在过去的 18 个月 中我完全没有做到这一点。我曾经写到 :“希望随着预期的降低,我的对此投入的个人努力 也可以随之降低 。”然而实际上完全不是这样,我发现只要我一天还在管理合伙企业,我就 完全无法让自己投入到其它与之无关的东西上去。我不想让自己成为一个永远管理着资金 , 追逐着投资收益的疯狂的兔子,而唯一让我放缓脚步的办法,就是将其停止。 所以,在年底之前,我希望所有的有限合伙人都能正式地得知我的退休愿望。 1969 年 10 月 9 日 致合伙人: 以下是接下来我认为对于我的退休将要涉及的事情: ( 1 )向你们介绍一下 Bill...